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2 plays equal equity

FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
Ran across an interesting hand I had yesterday in a 5 way raised pot. I had the NFD on the flop and X-C on the flop from the BB.

2 others went to the turn. On the turn I was fairly certain my two opponents were not strong and at best TPGK. I picked up a SD now on a 3 card board. J :s: 7 :s: 4 6 and I had A :s: 5 :s: I had 15-16.5 outs I thought

Betting had no fold equity vs my two opponents.
I could X-C or X-RAI at this point.

EP checks, MP bet a good chunk...

I quickly weight both options based on a zillion factors. I thought XC had about equal equity to XRAI mathematically.

So if I had both options which is the better pick? And why?

Comments

  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Betting has no FE but CR does? Also what are stacks? That makes a difference. I still think I just call and look to get some value if I hit river. Your SD is disguised and even if flush comes you should be able to get some small amount for TP. I would have to know the CR gets though a lot to go for it. Also who's to say EP isn't drawing and you over flush him getting paid in full.
  • JacklambJacklamb Posts: 561Subscriber
    I like crai if he can ever fold. Only issue is what does the 6 complete? 35 or 58 which you are unlikely to have calling for a gutshot. You would have 76 for two pair at best, so he's not folding any decent hand.
    If you just call you also may keep in the 3rd player who could have worse spades. It gives you better odds on calling turn.
    If you can ever get a fold though, it's better to shove and take down the money. Depends how much you have behind.
  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,244Member
    With no FE and almost always getting the correct PO with your draw calling might just be best.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    This was more of a theoretical question. The SPRs weren't correct if I bet. If I got shoved on I'd have to call.

    But lets add betting as an equal possibility on equity.

    If we say...
    betting lets you control the pot often enough for a river bet in which you will get some value
    XC is a similar value to betting
    XRAI is a lower win value but higher fold value which equals out in equity for the other 2 options.

    If all are equal...... which is better?

    I thought about this quite a bit. Perhaps the answer lies in the externalities of each play. So let's say you XRAI and get called and caught well now you get paid off more. If that is your goal. But you can't bluff as much. This situation I find at times I get into. I get caught in a bluff and I notice I get paid more later for other hands.

    Or they fold and now you have a larger more intimidating stack that makes people play more predictable.

    I also assume it also boils down to your bankroll. the XRAI is a higher variance play than the other two and might impact your bankroll or confidence.
  • HeyWayneHeyWayne Posts: 20Subscriber
    I'm new to the community so forgive me if this is not standard. Shouldn't you be giving effective stack sizes and actual bet sizes?

    As played I am not bluffing anyone until I know they're capable of layig down top pair. If they are, this is a fine spot to C/R. I don't think leading gets many top pairs out facing an average villain.
  • DrSpaceDrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited January 2017
    don't want to fold out lower flush. ✔️ call mostly.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    edited January 2017
    I said we have fold equity which means you can put pressure on your opponent to force him to make a big decision for his stack. In this scenario the opponent's bet would put about 30% of his stack in the middle. But these players look at absolute values often.

    I leverage their perceived big bets often in my games. I have had people fold to a small raise getting 4:1 before.

    Would our decision change if the board was this....

    J :s: 7 :s: 6 5 and we held A :s: 4 :s: ? And why?
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