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$5-$10 Choose your river sizing (Podcast 1-10-17)

Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,113Administrator, LeadPro
edited January 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Last night, about 10:00PM, $5-$10 Commerce. Game is very good, like a typical Sunday. V1 ($1500) is a Mexican recreational player. He not horrible, but appears to be a small to moderate losing player. V2 is large VIP, mid 50s Persian guy ($2000).

V1 limps UTG, 7 handed. V2 limps HJ. Hero raises to $50 with 9 9 on the button. Both limpers call.

$160 FLOP: 6 5 4 :s:

Checked to Hero who bets $100. Both V1 and V2 call.

$460 TURN: 9 :s:

Checked to Hero who bets $290, with 3, $100 chips. Both V1 and V2 call.

$1330 RIVER: J

Checked to Hero.

1. What is your bet sizing here and why?

2. What do you do with AA-QQ.. Check, bet? If bet, sizing and why..
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Comments

  • DoubleupnowDoubleupnow Posts: 94Subscriber
    I think I definitely have the best hand. Although I don't think the villains are very strong here I like to bet big ($1,000) so it might look like I missed hearts and they think I am bluffing. I think I would play AA-QQ the same.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Stan wrote: »
    I think I definitely have the best hand. Although I don't think the villains are very strong here I like to bet big ($1,000) so it might look like I missed hearts and they think I am bluffing. I think I would play AA-QQ the same.

    unless there is some history with villain trying to bluff catch Bart this is just not going to work. Also villains checked to bart and an overcard came on turn and no one check raised bart.


    I think at best they have a one pair hand like 67 97 (unlikely) T7 etc.. even more so can villain have say JThh or pair and backdoor flush .. but in the end I think they are generally rather weak.

    To get called I think a bet of no more than say $400..

    now IF these guys are super passive and just never call when they check river but might raise if they have say a straight they slowplayed waiting for safe cards then a check back is in order.. understand that 99% of the player pool is not playing that tricky but it would be in my mind given the right type of villain

    Now if I have AA I think that the bet is pretty much the same and even maybe bet a little bigger since now villains have more 9s in their range and might call more on turn and river.. $500 with AA
  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,244Member
    edited January 2017
    deleted.
  • stayinschoolstayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I do think we have the best hand. I think V's have a lot of pair + draw type hands that missed. I think huge value is unlikely but I do think we should try and "Make it look like a bluff." Around 700 seems good to me. Think we can get called by 1 pair that puts on any of the missed draws or just overs. I can see an argument for polarizing ourselves by going very big but that's more villain dependent.
  • JacklambJacklamb Posts: 561Subscriber
    edited January 2017
    Overbet the pot $1.5k to get VIP all in? It's not something I do much, but this seems like a spot it could be good. These villains seem to have something like draws that didn't get there or possibly they have a passively played two pair. But I doubt it. Because V2 is VIP maybe you can pray he calls with something to bluff catch. It seems difficult for them to have anything much here.
    Or, I'd go small like $400/500 to hope they hit a J with hearts or want to stubbornly bluffcatch.
    2. I'd bet around $500 on the river with AA or KK I think to try to get a call out of a pair. Maybe less is even better.
    Bet turn larger I'd say to $350 and build the pot up more.
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352Subscriber, Professional
    i bet very small. maybe $400. i think neither v can have much better than a pair here by the river. i'd almost rather have aa-qq here as that puts more 9x in v's ranges.
    Thanked by 1Thehammah
  • aaronaaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    edited January 2017
    Prime example of betting based on our opponents range instead of our own hand strength. If we were playing a GTO strategy we want to bet bigger vs a capped range (i.e. villians' ranges shouldn't be 2 pr + very often if at all). Best hands villian's will show up w/ here is Jxhh. Betting on small side exploitatively is best.

    For those talking about overbetting or betting large, w/out any history/reads this is a little bit of FPS. Villians' have shown us no reason in this hand that they will hero a large bet size. While this may be the "fun" play to make, it's not the best play.
    Thanked by 1Thehammah
  • DrSpaceDrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    Did you bet small on turn because 56 came in ? There ranges prob so wide I bet bigger because most hands they call with will be pretty bet size inelastic, especially with VIP closing the action.

    Bet small with all those hands on river. They are not very different, 99 blocks the nut straight but that raises turn mostly. Mostly looking for her calls from one pair. Betting big because flush draws missed requires compliant villains, only you would know if this is a good exploit.

    Villain's are capped at rare j9,96. Two pair quite rare given the action. St8s almost never.
  • maphacksmaphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    I am always unsure in those spots. you could bet super tiny vs 77,88,6x,5x or rather big against Jx and average one or two combos (both players) of "slowplayed" 2pair/set . of course there are way less Jx+ combos but we can bet way bigger. vs 77 probably 320 and vs Jx probably around 800 (or move allin vs 2pair/sets).
    feels pretty similiar in EV. so for image purposes, to see their hand, to maybe get even two calls if one guy is truly terrible and minor tilt if they lose more in the hand, I probably prefer very small sizing.

    same goes for QQ+ and even leaning a little bit more towards smaller sizing since we are probably behind about 10-15%.

    to make sure what's better we could assign them a range, make some assumptions and calculate the EV. I'd be happy if someone does it for me :D
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    Off the top of my head 3/5p and make it look like you are giving 3:1 odds for them to call by using chip denominations as a psychological weapon.

    Reason is that either they have a pair + draw, a draw or 2 pair. 2 pairs have way more combos here than FD combos that will call a bet on the river.

    If I bet too much in this pot 2 pairs can fold. Now if you know the callers can't fold 2 pair then bombs away.

    If I had an overpair.....
    I would lean on betting small to get some shit pair to call and increase their calling range.... And even lets say it is rare someone has 2 pair in their range here because they would XR or bet somewhere earlier in the hand I would still bet small to target that single pair.
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