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River spot in 1/3

I'm on the button with AJd with one mp1 limped.

Raise to $15, SB BB and mp1 call.

Flop is 3c8dJs

SB checks BB leads out for $35 and mp1 folds. I flat call (BB seems like semi solid recreational player). I am thinking I don't really need to turn my hand face up here plus I have the SB still to act. SB folds

Turn is Qd giving me nut flush draw. BB bets $50 fairly quickly. I could raise but am I folding out two pair or sets no. I decide to just flat for the river.

River is a blank. I believe 5s. BB checks

What do you guys do here?

Comments

  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Are stacks $300? Bet and hope a worse J calls. Maybe $75-100. Try to insure a call so what ever you think that amount is.
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Bet fold 1/4 pot, targeting Jx.
  • JacklambJacklamb Posts: 561Subscriber
    Yeah bet maybe 1/2 pot. He could definitely call with worse J's or bluff catchers. I kind of like raising the flop depending on what hands he Donks here. It's rarely a very strong hand given this action.
    Thanked by 1Pinky
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 408Subscriber
    I would make a small value bet on the river. I think his line seems like a worse J than ours. I have to think he would be the river with any hand that beats us.
  • abstractlsabstractls Posts: 35Subscriber
    pokertime wrote: »
    Are stacks $300? Bet and hope a worse J calls. Maybe $75-100. Try to insure a call so what ever you think that amount is.

    I failed to mark it down afterwards, something I need to start doing regularly. I believe at least 100BB effective. I know this is one of those spots where I am losing value. Indeed he had KJos. I know these spots can make or break a win rate. For some reason I miss value on these rivers, but with KK I definitely fire again on river. When he first bet out I was worried about QQ but when he checks the river I'm not really worried there. Now my next question would be what if he fires the river too? What would you do then?

  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    abstractls wrote: »
    pokertime wrote: »
    Are stacks $300? Bet and hope a worse J calls. Maybe $75-100. Try to insure a call so what ever you think that amount is.

    I failed to mark it down afterwards, something I need to start doing regularly. I believe at least 100BB effective. I know this is one of those spots where I am losing value. Indeed he had KJos. I know these spots can make or break a win rate. For some reason I miss value on these rivers, but with KK I definitely fire again on river. When he first bet out I was worried about QQ but when he checks the river I'm not really worried there. Now my next question would be what if he fires the river too? What would you do then?

    Most likely snap call. He either has QJ or we are good. BB should never have QQ here as played.
  • OmegaPT1OmegaPT1 Posts: 41Subscriber
    I'm betting $85 targeting many worse J's which by his bet sizing he can very well have, if raised i fold. With that said I can't see the villain just checking QJ or some set with the way the action has gone down.
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Here is the great part about being IP. Our opponent can almost never check back a hand like QJ or T9 or Q8 or QQ or 88. Why? Because he won't get value since we can simply check and go to showdown.

    So when he checks the river, it becomes very unlikely that he has one of those hands. It's also very rare that a random player is going to donk bet into a multiway pot with a hand like AQ or KQ. The only hand that could make any sense would be QT or Q9 - but even that's a far stretch. So we look to the sets and Jx. Sets usually slowplay as much as possible, even multiway. So a lot of his range is going to be Jx.

    On the turn, his bet looks a little scared honestly. He bets $35 into $60, which is ok, but then $50 into $130 when an overcard that completes some draws comes. That's not really a bet indicative of strength, more like weakness or a blocking bet.

    When he checks the river, it becomes fairly clear that he has some weak Jx. I think betting like $95 is a good option. Keep it under the 3 digits but also a solid enough betsize.
    Thanked by 1Pinky
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