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bad luck, bad bet or bad call?

Quick set up; Villain is probably a break even to slight winning reg. I've seen him traditionally raise in EP pre about $20 with SC's, small suited aces, small pairs. He will usually fold these openings to a 3 bet. His med pairs and AK, AQ are usually $25-30 raises.
Two hands prior to this he lost his 1K buy in with AA vs the biggest whale at the table who got it in pre flop with AK.
He rebuys to $800. Now to hand. Villain has $800 and I cover him

V is mp1 and raises to $20
mp2 calls
I'm on button with J J :s:
I elect to call as I think he is on mini tilt and may just barrel off. I think he folds his total junk though pre flop if I raise
sb call. bb calls
(100). flop J 8 :s: 4
V bets 50. I decide to min raise here to $100. (My original plan was to call him down if he barrels, but now I really want to cry to get all of the money in). Thoughts? Other players fold. He calls quickly
(300). Turn 6 he checks. I bet $205. He hems and haws for about about 20 seconds then calls
(710). River 3
He checks: What's the play? He has $475 remaining in his stack.
What are we targeting here when we bet?
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Comments

  • JKHJKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    Bet $300 targeting overpairs and the other jack. It's a pretty fair price and he only needs to be good 23% of the time to call. It also a big enough bet that occasionally it could interpreted as a bluff. Possibly a missed ten 9. I think u will see a crying call here just over 50% of the time which is what u want. If he is tilted he is likely to call more often. Depending on how tilted u think he is increase your bet accordingly. If he was a whale I would say bet his stack but I don't think a reg will call 475 that often.
  • cbtobe@gmail.com[email protected] Posts: 54Subscriber
    I actually bet $225. He thought for about 30 seconds then shipped for $475
    There is no way you can find a fold here right?
  • cbtobe@gmail.com[email protected] Posts: 54Subscriber
    I called obviously
    He had 8 10
    Just bad luck?
    Have to bet that river right?
  • FelintarFelintar Posts: 37Subscriber
    Is it an obvious call? What do we beat? I'm not being smart, just posing the question.
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    It's sooooo hard to comment on this hand. When I read the action, then look back at the title, it's pretty easy to guess what happened. You didn't need to post the results (and next time please don't, at least until the discussion has run its course).

    I think that if your pre-flop sizing read is correct, you have to 3-bet. The kind of hands you described for his opening range aren't going to barrell unless they have significant equity against a hand exactly like yours. A b/e reg isn't spewing here, so when he doesn't have much equity, he'll fold early. You want him to put more money in the pot before that happens. So raise pre.

    As played....if it was your plan to let him barrell off with a bad hand.....then execute your plan. Don't steal initiative with a min-raise on the flop. Let him keep betting. And let the other players stay in the pot. The board is not at all dangerous for your hand.

    If you must raise flop though, go for value. $175

    The turn is tricky. As played, you got good value with a bet of 2/3 pot. I guess that's fine.

    I'd recommend doing the combo work out long hand to determine how many shitty hands he might have floated with on the flop. In other words, with what frequency is he check/folding here? Your min raise really allows him to "see what happens" with alot of hands. If he thought you were just trying to protect a J, then he might have all kinds of naked overcard hands here that he's done with. KQss, AThh. There were three backdoor flush draws on the flop. Now only one is possible. That's real bad news for about 2/3 of that range.

    I haven't done the work out, but I wouldn't be surprised to find that our villain folds way too much here on the turn, and thus we may consider a check/back in order to open up his bluffing range on the river.

    On the river, as played, just check I guess. Everything got there.




  • cbtobe@gmail.com[email protected] Posts: 54Subscriber
    Obvious call based on my read that he is on tilt and in my mind could be overplaying any jack or some random 2 pair hand he decided to raise pre and then peel and It is $250 for $1700.
    I hate to just check back the river there and not get value but spr don't warrant a bet fold.
  • PBJTIMEPBJTIME Posts: 345Subscriber
    If you think he is on mini tilt, why not 3 bet preflop? He will be more likely to make a mistake. I agree with Banana on the flop raise sizing. If you're trying to get all the money in, raise larger. On the river, $1150 pot $250 to call and you think he is tilting. Very tough to find a fold here.
  • Dragon-AshDragon-Ash Posts: 203Subscriber
    It's probably a sigh-call because of the ridiculous pot odds.

    But players on tilt don't really go for check-raises on the river, he'd open ship river if it was a tilty bluff.

    What two pair combos could he have? You block all the Jx hands. 34 doesn't call the turn bet. And there are only a few combos of 86s and 64s. Probably more set combos really, which of course we beat.

    But if he has SCs and suited gappers in his range as an MP1 open, he has all the 75, 45, 56, and 35 combos as well, to go along with 8x of clubs and 4x of clubs.

    I'm not saying I definitely wouldn't have called, but I would have been very concerned about a possible straight.
  • JKHJKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    cbtobe wrote: »
    I actually bet $225. He thought for about 30 seconds then shipped for $475
    There is no way you can find a fold here right?

    250 / 1660 so need to be good 15% of the time .....against a clear headed reg I think the fold is possible, against a rec player prone to any type of overplay can't fold.... against a slightly tilted reg..... flip a coin I think...it's close

    Being this should never be a bluff, u only beat an overplay of a random 2 pair or set .... I think against a winning player u could fold.
    No decent player is ever bluffing here
  • cbtobe@gmail.com[email protected] Posts: 54Subscriber
    Agreed. Just a sigh call. In retrospect I debated if this is even a bet on the river
  • JKHJKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    Definitely a bet on the river .... the call is the tough part
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