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5/10 Commerce Flop Top Set Deep

fishcakefishcake Posts: 1,002Subscriber
edited December 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5/10 NL Commerce. Game was pretty good but has gotten a little slow in the last hour and several players are playing kind of snug. I'm on the tail end of my session with a good image up about $1200ish. I have $3600 to start the hand.

Tight villain that I've never played with before opens $45 UTG with about an $1800 stack. I'm in UTG2/MP1 and elect to flat with QQ. This wasn't really the type of table I was expecting for it to go multiway and villain has a pretty strong range here (IMO) opening UTG to 4.5x. It ends up going 5 ways to the flop.

Flop ($225) QT5ss, checks to me and I bet $160. It folds to the SB who if you're familiar with some of Bart's hands is Mr. Song. He's usually a tightish passive middle-aged Korean. He makes it $500, and covers us, everyone folds and it's back to me. What do I do here?
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Comments

  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    If he's tight/passive, then I think we throw out the spade semi-bluffs except maybe the 15 outers KJ and J9. That's two combos compared to 6 combos of smaller sets. I don't see how we fold here, ever, on any runout, for any amount of money.

    So once that's decided, I'm just coming up with a plan to get all the money in. The problem with just calling here is that it leaves you with $3K stacks and a ~1200 pot. To get all the money in over the next two streets you need to bet full pot on the turn and then half pot on the river. Or, you could bet 3/4 pot on the turn and 2/3 pot on the river.

    Those are kinda big bet sizes and there are some cards that can come that might kill our action against smaller sets. So I think I just click it back to $1k here. If he doesn't shove over, then there will be $2200 in the pot with $2500 left to play, with two rounds of betting left. Easy game.

  • daynnightdaynnight Posts: 200Subscriber
    I assume he has you covered and he has $3600 here aswell.

    His line looks SUPER strong, I would guess he has TT/55/QT a huge % of the time here. Maybe something like AJss/KJss. VS that range, I think theres no point in slowplaying. Especially since he will have a hard time to put you on QQ. I would raise to $1400 and go for stacks on the turn.

    If you think theres the slightest chance he could fold a set here I would flat and raise turn. However I doubt that is the case.
  • JKHJKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    Yeh I like a 3 bet here because he should have a really strong range he is not interested in folding, if he has a combo draw he is likely still at least calling and against his range it might all get in on the flop.
    The problem with waiting to the turn to raise is that there are so many cards that slow the action, so I would 3bet here and hopefully get it all in on the flop.
    I really like your flop bet though.
  • Dragon-AshDragon-Ash Posts: 203Subscriber
    Main question here is, how does villain play his draws? Would he raise with a draw here, or would he only raise with a made value hand? Most 'tight/passive' middle-aged guys don't play draws that hard, so this feels like a big hand - although I don't know Mr Song.

    If we assume that a 'tight passive middle-aged Asian guy' is never folding a big hand after check-raising the flop on this board, why can't we just ship here?
  • TastesLikeBurningTastesLikeBurning Posts: 429Subscriber, Professional
    I like BS' rationale and plan. You could even click it back smaller to $850 if you should choose. However that's splitting some fine hairs...
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    Make it $1850.. hopefully he ships..if he just calls, I think you have to GII on any turn even if :s: comes.
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    I am all in.
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    I think we just look too strong with a non all in 3 bet. I like a call in position or a shove. With bottom set and top 2 pairs, I can see just calLing this raise.

    With top and middle set, and monster draws, I think all in is better.
    Thanked by 1squishmytomato
  • maphacksmaphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    Mr. Song always empties the clip if he thinks you are capped. On the other hand I don't think he will ever really fold draws against a reraise. I am not sure which cards are good for us since I expect him to bet at least one more time when has a OESD and the flush comes in.

    I just reraise flop but wouldn't blame you for a call flop/raise turn on blanks or call on any flush card. I expect him to bet almost pot on any turn.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,108Administrator, LeadPro
    Depends on Song's mood and whether hes tilting or not. But in general he will fast play his hands (sets and two pair) but also will fast play draws and apply max pressure. He wont check a blank no matter what happens on the turn so its close you could call the flop and just put it in on the turn.
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    Just my two cents....

    I really don't think it's kosher to be identifying villains by name in an online forum. Like we're all talking about this guy behind his back and he has no idea. I dont' know....it feels kinda gossip-y
  • TastesLikeBurningTastesLikeBurning Posts: 429Subscriber, Professional
    Just my two cents....

    I really don't think it's kosher to be identifying villains by name in an online forum. Like we're all talking about this guy behind his back and he has no idea. I dont' know....it feels kinda gossip-y

    Going forward, let's call him 'Mister S.'

    No no no, that's too obvious, let's call him 'M. Song.'
  • fishcakefishcake Posts: 1,002Subscriber
    I felt that it was ok to use his name as Bart has used it on more than one occasion. I'll leave it up to him.

    As for what happened. I made it $1300 and he said "you have a set" and snap called. Turn 9s he snap ships, I think about it and he SHOWS ME HIS HAND. J8ss, so he has a flush. I fold.

    After thinking about this spot and having several players provide input I think the play was to shove the flop over his $500 raise. I think it's very unlikely he ever folds a combo draw, set or even two pair. Shoving makes it look more like I have a draw, too.
  • LordFoldemortLordFoldemort Posts: 2Subscriber
    Do you remember the orientation of the suits? If the flop is Q :s: T 5 :s: , then V is more likely to have a combo draw with hands like 8 :s: 10 :s: - A :s: 10 :s: so 5 extra combos.
    If the flop is Q :s: T :s: 5 , then I am putting 5 :s: 4 :s: - 5 :s: 7 :s: in his range, which is 3 combos.
    If the flop is Q T :s: 5 :s: , but we have the Q :s: in our hand, then we can discount any pair + FD combos. If we do NOT have the Q :s: in our hand, then he can have 8 :s: Q :s: - A :s: Q :s: , which is 5 combos.

    This could all be negligible since it's a matter of 3-5 extra combos, but I thought it might be worth considering. Since we are in position, I think min raising to 1000-1200 and evaluating turn is the best play. If we were OOP, I would be more apt to just shove.
  • pray4blankpray4blank Posts: 141Subscriber
    If stacks are this deep, I'm always hoping he has a set and can win all the monies. If he did, would he fold to a shove?

    ...if not, at first glance it seems best. I'd hate to have a bad run out and not get all the monies. I like monies.

    If you think you can get called by giant combo draws too, cool...sounds good to me...probably like 65% against the hand he actually had? If he folds a 35% equity with some money in the middle, this isn't a disaster, really, but not what you'd be hoping for.

  • JKHJKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    If u make it $2000 on flop u price yourself into all action and a turn call no matter the card
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    JKH wrote: »
    If u make it $2000 on flop u price yourself into all action and a turn call no matter the card

    You're also more likely to get a ship from a combo draw. Even if you don't - you're getting more value right now.
    I think vs set - it almost doesn't matter what we do, all $$$ going in.
  • maphacksmaphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    in the end it doesn't matter how you play against mr. song. he is going to beat you because he always wins. that's why he instantly goes on super monkey tilt if he looses a hand because he is not used to it. he has to make at least 4k/day to be happy.
    Thanked by 1Bart Hanson
  • David ChanDavid Chan Posts: 1,208Pro
    LOL at all the commentary regarding Mr. Song.
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