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$2-5 new to me villain

This happened to me last night in a $2-5 game. After it happened, I wasn't sure what to do with the info, or if it was even enough info to use going forward.

$2-5 NLHE 9-handed, $800 effective, I have villain covered.

I'm UTG and straddle to $10. A couple loose-passives limp, villain makes it $60 from SB. BB folds, I look down at KQo. I would often fold here, but my spidey-senses were on alert by villain's bet. The sizing was big for the current game flow, he was an unknown, I had position, I thought there would be many boards on which I could potentially take the pot away from villain, so I called. Two other limpers fold, pot $145.

Flop comes J76r. Villain pauses, then bets $70. I thought by the way he bet that he wasn't strong. I called, and planned to take the pot away on the turn if checked to, or possible raising the turn if he continued to bet depending upon his sizing. Pot is now $285.

Turn 9. He hesitates and checks. I bet $135, trying to look value-y. He chops out some chips and check/raises to $350. I muck, he turns over AQo.

I didn't think this villain was capable of this line with AQ as I thought my line of call pre-flop, call flop, bet turn looked pretty strong. He didn't even have a semi-bluff. Or maybe he was just clicking buttons. Or maybe he thought he was value betting. I just don't know.

So, what conclusions would you draw about this unknown $2-5 player based on this hand? Would you say villain is a competent hand reader? A sicko? A donk? A button clicker? Would you say he got lucky? Or that he had a read on me? Do any of you play with other $2-5 players that you've seen take a line like this?

Thanks,

Chris

Comments

  • marseillemarseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    It's possible you just got outplayed. What happened rest of session? Maybe he picked up something from your flop call or turn bet. Did the turn bring a backdoor flush draw? If so, maybe it was your turn bet that looked weak. Ch/r bluffing turn line is a nice complement to value range vs aggressive players who can lay down. Then again maybe he was just bored.
  • beauregardbeauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    As described, i think this is a good player.
    He understands ranges and board texture.

    As played, your actions look weak.
    If you had QQ+ - it seems that you would have repopped him preflop or at least on the flop. You didn't.
    So I would range you on a med pocket pair, flopped small pair or a couple of overcards. At best, I think you're capped to AJ - and if you had that, you would call the turn reraise - and v would probably be done with the hand unless he improved.

    Your turn bet also looks weak. Pot is 285 and you bet 135. It doesn't look like you're really committed to your hand. It's less than ½ pot!

    Think about this: if you had 76, a set of 6s or even AJ, would you have bet this small? This bet doesn't look like a value bet. It looks more like either a blocking "am I good here?" bet.

    Based on your description, I think V did a good job betting for value oop. C-betting the flop. And checking the turn with showdown value. I also like his c/r on the turn - because your bet looks like 88 or A7 at best. Moral of the story is - if you're trying to take a pot away from a strong player, you need to make a strong bet.

    I have played with these kinds of players and it's no picnic. But luckily, you have position!
    Thanked by 2hectorjelly ZeroJJ
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    I don't mind you going for it but you played it weak so your line didn't make sense. You should have raised flop to like $200+ Make it look like you called with QQ, hit a big J or even a set and he might not play back at that. Your not taking it away OTT with a 1/2 pot size bet. It needs to be big and even then it looks funny to a smart player. You called PF and flop with T8? I wouldn't buy it. You really have to rep a set and look like your setting it up to get it all in OTR.
  • MouseMasherMouseMasher Posts: 78Subscriber
    I ran a few calcs with assumptions that: the river checks through if you call his XR, his actual hand has ~12% equity vs your range, if he hits either of his cards, he wins at showdown. It turns out he is much better off XR you than XF (of course he can XC but my assumptions were designed for expediency and convenience).

    As far as your bet size on the turn, it sets up about a PSB on the river, when you can bet as little or as much of your stack as you like and have your sets, 2-pair or better get called, so criticism about your turn river sizing is dubious, at best. Why on earth you can't have a set, 2-pair or a frisky straight that bets $135 into $285 on the turn is beyond me.

    Keep in mind that the EV calcs had very simplistic assumptions, which implies conclusions drawn are merely minor points to consider as you think about the big picture, which should also include: was my PF call something to regard as a big leak? Was my hand a poor one to call with PF? Is KQo the type of hand that fits into my "bluff" range on the turn? If not, why not?

    Btw, my guess is that any conclusions you draw based on the hand are as likely to hurt you as help you.

  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    As far as your bet size on the turn, it sets up about a PSB on the river, when you can bet as little or as much of your stack as you like and have your sets, 2-pair or better get called, so criticism about your turn river sizing is dubious, at best. Why on earth you can't have a set, 2-pair or a frisky straight that bets $135 into $285 on the turn is beyond me.

    Sure he can have all those hands and bet that amount but he didn't and he did. That the problem. If you bet that small amount your opening yourself to a raise and you better want it. It doesn't matter what you actaully have the Villian may think the small bet is looking to buy it cheap (which it was) and put the pressure back on which happened.
  • MouseMasherMouseMasher Posts: 78Subscriber
    What you said is analogous to someone saying "Every morning, after I urinate, the sun rises, so it''s obvious that I have the ability to make the sun rise." Here is another little diddy: "I have known my friend over 40 years, which is almost 15000 days, and he hasn't died, meaning he is invincible."

    Narrative following action is very different than the reverse.
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    What you said is analogous to someone saying "Every morning, after I urinate, the sun rises, so it''s obvious that I have the ability to make the sun rise." Here is another little diddy: "I have known my friend over 40 years, which is almost 15000 days, and he hasn't died, meaning he is invincible."

    Narrative following action is very different than the reverse.

    Great 4th post. Have fun mulling all that over.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    It seems to be a well conceived float -- you just happened to run into a sicko this time. I think the fraction of players who are capable of this move with AQ high is about 2%. Hero would have likely won the pot vs almost all opponents in this spot.

    Maybe hero could have bet $165 on the turn , but I don't think we need to bet much more than that to accomplish our purpose of getting A high / other air to fold. If we are betting for value with AJ or KJ on the turn, would you guys really bet $250 / close to full pot?? I don't think so.

    Beau- one nit picky correction : re-raise means that someone has already raised on that street.
  • beauregardbeauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    chilidog wrote: »
    Beau- one nit picky correction : re-raise means that someone has already raised on that street.
    Yeah - u rite - it's.. open, raise, 3-bet (or re-raise) ... or bet, raise.
    my bad.


    as far as 135 vs 165... not sure 30 more makes a big difference.
    I think a 200 bet looks stronger and more like a hand that's protecting against the straight.
    But even then, v may still range Hero as being capped at J or under and he can continue to rep JJ+.
    Moral of the story: don't mess with good players at 2/5!


    BTW - nowadays, it seems that the turn bet against a check is today's c-bet. I have seen a ton of players with various skill level call a pfr, call a flop bet and then bet on a turn check. (Which is why I now see more players use the defense of turn check/raise move with nutted hands against a wet board.) Again, this probably depends on your player pool and blind levels - but it's another move that shows how the skill level of today's entire poker population seems to be way ahead of Phil Hellmuth when he won his first bracelet.
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