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Value bet this river or check to induce bluff?

2/5 NL 550 effective.

Villain 1 - young guy in his 20s, prefers to raise over limpers instead of limping behind. Opens a fairly wide range, He will raise suited connectors, etc. Tends to slow down if he meets resistance rather than fire multiple barrels

Villain 2 - new to table, early 30s bought in for 1K otherwise no reads.

Pre flop. Hero limps UTG with QTcc. V1 raises from MP to 30, V2 calls on button. Hero calls. (I admit pre flop is not good. 10 handed this hand is too weak to play UTG.)

Flop (95) AQ5r Checked trhough
Turn (95) 7h bringing backdoor hearts. It's hard to believe either player would check that flop with an ace, so I think there's a good chance my Q is good and I could get called by draws, so I lead 50. OR folds and button calls.

River (195) Ace that does not complete flush. A second ace on the board makes it even less likely that button has an ace, but it's hard to think of a hand he could have that calls a value bet. He might also have a queen with a better kicker, but I would expect him to bet the flop with KQ a lot. Is it better to bet small and hope he's curious, or check and bluff catch?


  • TJTJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    Hard to believe he has much, maybe 88-JJ. I think a modest bet on the river could get called by those hands, his thinking being that you bet a heart draw or a 7. I would bet $60. If he had a draw, he's not going to call anyway, and I don't think he's going to bluff into you, because a bet on the river just *looks* like a bluff.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    there really aren't many if any worse hands that are likely to call if you value bet the river. i'm leaning towards check/fold, followed by bet small/fold on the river. i don't think it's super likely that he bluffs the river with a missed draw, especially considering V2 is not the preflop raiser. i think if he bets, he is weighted towards KQ+, with a lot a weak aces that were fine to check the flop. in fact, i don't think most villians will even bet KQ in this spot, but would happy to check down and take the pot.
  • TDFTDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    I wouldn't c/f cause it's clear that you don't have an Ace if you check so it gives him green light to bluff.
  • OutlierOutlier Posts: 88Subscriber
    I know that here on Bart's website we should never be mentioning a check-call on the river ;) , but I think one could make a case for a check-call here. I do think villain could call with any Q he has, it's just that he'll have more that beat us than we beat--I could see KQ, QJs, QT, and Q9s, against which we are not 50%, so betting does not seem optimal.
    Many players play a very wide range on the button, especially if they are getting the famous "pot odds." Plus, the flop check-through also makes his turn calling range wider. In other words, he could have a lot of hands that bricked out on the river with which he might bluff. It's not terrible for this to get checked down, as chilidog said, since we were in a sub-optimal spot to begin with (open limp QTss UTG).
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Bart talks about this specific spot when top pair pairs the river.. Many players who would not normally bet now feel they can get away with it by repping that . If villain has a Q I think he checks it most of the time but will feel compelled to bluff straight draws . Villain could have bet the flop but didnt.. That means at best he is slowplay a set of 5s or has a very weak ace. with the 5s he is betting river for sure but with the weak ace he might not fearing you have a better kicker..

    What the check will do is this.. get players who have you beat but have showdown value to NOT bet and you lose less money. Hands where you are already beat will bet and you will lose whatever they bet in that spot.. Many players will be the river as a bluff that would have folded to your river value bet ..

    overall and of course based on reads at the table like have you seen this player EVER bet the river as a bluff, are they super passive etc.. also based on size of the bet (if its really really small that smells more value bet) or is it big (more polarized) I would lean towards calling.

  • I ended up betting 50, but at the time I didn't have a clear idea of what hands he could call me with that I beat. Villain surprised me by raising to 200. Does this seem fishy to you guys? Even if it does, are you calling?
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Would u raise A8 vs. a $50 river block bet? I would.
    Fold now. Like I said before, check/fold river.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    TheClubber said

    I ended up betting 50, but at the time I didn't have a clear idea of what hands he could call me with that I beat. Villain surprised me by raising to 200. Does this seem fishy to you guys? Even if it does, are you calling?
    This is never a bluff. I'm folding.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I would definitely check back some weaker Ax hands in buttons position. For this reason, he can have Ax hands IMO, and the occassional slowplayed two pair/set which now boated up. I am folding the river close to 100% unless I have a very specific read.
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