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Live $5/$10: Continue CheckRaise Semi-Bluff OTT?

$1000 eff. Hero image young grinder, his first hand at the table. Hero is dealt Ts9s in BB. $1000 eff. V1 is a weak reg, recreational player raises to $40 from M1, he sees me as very tight (played a lot before). V2 OTB calls. V2 is a middle-aged, clean cut recplayer, wearing dark shades, never seen him before, not a reg.

Flop: 3s3c2s Pot $125 I check, V1 checks, V2 bets $40, I CR to $120, V1 instafolds, V2 quickly calls.
Turn: Ad Pot $365

Continue our story?
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Comments

  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    I think so. Bet big, trying to make it look like you are scared of the flush. I think you can leverage your entire stack if you bet something like $275. That would put $895 in the pot and leave $565 behind, which should indicate to V that he will likely have to call another $565 if he wants to see a showdown. The A is a great bluff card on its own, and here we can rep A× :s:. Given his flat preflop, bet-call OTF with a 1/3 pot bet, it seems like V should be weighted towards mediocre pairs.
    Thanked by 1SKOO
  • Dab44Dab44 Posts: 411Subscriber
    Definitely continue the story... Let him hear it.. It's a nice barrel card against a non thinking player.. Unless he has the nut flush draw. But I say bomb like 275-300.. If he calls just give up unless u hit ur hand.
    Thanked by 1ANason21
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,060Subscriber
    I'm not usually one for trying to make plays against unknowns, buy this seems as good a time as any. Villain likely has a midpair. I agree with previous posters - a bomb is in order.
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    dpbuck wrote: »
    I'm not usually one for trying to make plays against unknowns, buy this seems as good a time as any. Villain likely has a midpair. I agree with previous posters - a bomb is in order.

    Is a quick call of a c/r raise that's into 2 opponents (looks pretty strong) indicative of mid PPs? I think V is weighted more towards the NFD, combo draw (4 :s: 5 :s:) or even a 3. I don't think V would call quickly if he has a hand like 77-JJ. He very well might call but not necessarily quickly.

    I'd be very wary of the reverse implied odds of hitting my hand because I think there is a good chance V has us crushed.
    Thanked by 1marseille
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    Dab44 wrote: »
    Definitely continue the story... Let him hear it.. It's a nice barrel card against a non thinking player.. Unless he has the nut flush draw. But I say bomb like 275-300.. If he calls just give up unless u hit ur hand.

    I think we need to be careful about making the assumption he is a non-thinking player. We have no info on him because Hero has never seen/played against him before. I agree with another bet on the turn as V will have to fold out pretty much any hand that isn't the NFD or an already made hand (4 :s: 5 :s:, or a book).

    If we bet and he calls a think it's a check fold on the river perhaps even if we hit our :s:.
  • Dab44Dab44 Posts: 411Subscriber
    I agree tomorrow 33...he could be a thinking player although unlikely lol..and if the river brings the flush we could be beat here..especially with the snap call on flop which is indicative of a draw. However there will not be much money behind..
  • marseillemarseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    Red flags for me on turn. Pacing is so important in a vacuum- i think spades with over is big part of range; K/Qxss are still calling, Axss probably shoving. You can always go for delayed double barrel on river if checked thru, which should get better spades and even some medium pairs to fold.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    tomorrow33 wrote: »
    dpbuck wrote: »
    I'm not usually one for trying to make plays against unknowns, buy this seems as good a time as any. Villain likely has a midpair. I agree with previous posters - a bomb is in order.

    Is a quick call of a c/r raise that's into 2 opponents (looks pretty strong) indicative of mid PPs? I think V is weighted more towards the NFD, combo draw (4 :s: 5 :s:) or even a 3. I don't think V would call quickly if he has a hand like 77-JJ. He very well might call but not necessarily quickly.

    I'd be very wary of the reverse implied odds of hitting my hand because I think there is a good chance V has us crushed.

    I think your range assessment is way off. Consider the pre flop action and the tiny bet on the flop. If V has the NFD or even a combo draw, does he really bet only 1/3 pot on the flop? I'd think he'd want max fold equity, which would entail a much bigger bet.

    And a 3? I don't think he ever has a 3 here. How many 3s are in a pre flop calling range, and would he really bet 1/3 pot if he had such a monster?

    I guess he could have 22, but given the action even that may check behind. The rest of his range has lots of junky pairs in it that put in a bet on the flop to get some value from random overs and/or force them to fold out random equity and then called the raise because, hey, it's an overpair to the board and hero's range shouldn't have many 3s in it -- like what does V think hero is check-raising on this flop? Probably the nut FD. So absolutely continue the story.

    If you face strong resistance, give up. If you hit the flush, bet the river.
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    edited August 2015
    marseille wrote: »
    Red flags for me on turn. Pacing is so important in a vacuum- i think spades with over is big part of range; K/Qxss are still calling, Axss probably shoving. You can always go for delayed double barrel on river if checked thru, which should get better spades and even some medium pairs to fold.

    Do you think V would call again with K/Qx :s:? If we bet again the NFD is a huge part of our range (obviously as long as V doesn't have it) and I think we can probably get a fold from that hand if we bet big again. If we say however we go for the delayed bet on the river (assuming turn goes check check) I think V looks us up with any mid PPs that he still has that called on the flop as our hand looks so much like a missed draw or some kind of hand that tried to steal the pot on the flop. I think V would expect us to continue on the turn with any 3 or the NFD on the turn that picked up top pair so out hand looks so suss if we check turn but lead river. If we bet turn I think we get folds from the K/Qx :s: hands that will also fold river if we end for the delayed river bet but we also get the mid PPs to fold if he has any of those.

    I think the better play is bet/fold turn to fold out any better FDs and PPs that will look us up if we bet river. If our flush draw is good and V has a 3 then we can essentially freeze the action on the river by betting turn if we hit our spade and we can probably get it to go check check and scoop the pot.
  • marseillemarseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    tomorrow33 wrote: »

    Do you think V would call again with K/Qx :s:? If we bet again the NFD is a huge part of our range (obviously as long as V doesn't have it) and I think we can probably get a fold from that hand if we bet big again. If we say however we go for the delayed bet on the river (assuming turn goes check check) I think V looks us up with any mid PPs that he still has that called on the flop as our hand looks so much like a missed draw or some kind of hand that tried to steal the pot on the flop.

    I agree that there is more f/e on betting turn than river if we weight him towards pairs but I just think given description of play there are way more draws here that will get sticky on turn. I don't know that many players folding second nut spade draws at these stakes- if he's decent, ok. But a big portion of draws that bet flop will be A high. When guys do bet medium pairs, I typically expect larger sizing on that board and not snap calls. I actually am looking for a brick on river, as I think better spades and SOME pairs will fold to bet. Does it look like whiffed draw? Maybe to a good player. (Then again I'd take that line with nut flush draw as well.)



  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    marseille wrote: »
    tomorrow33 wrote: »
    I agree that there is more f/e on betting turn than river if we weight him towards pairs but I just think given description of play there are way more draws here that will get sticky on turn. I don't know that many players folding second nut spade draws at these stakes- if he's decent, ok. But a big portion of draws that bet flop will be A high. When guys do bet medium pairs, I typically expect larger sizing on that board and not snap calls. I actually am looking for a brick on river, as I think better spades and SOME pairs will fold to bet. Does it look like whiffed draw? Maybe to a good player. (Then again I'd take that line with nut flush draw as well.)

    Yeah I agree that V has way more draws than pairs in his range and considering we currently have T high and a flush draw that might not be good I think the line with most fold equity is best. I haven't ever played at $5$/10 but I'd think there are players good enough to recognise that with that action and them holding the K high spade draw that there is a good chance they're drawing dead.

    As for the turn if you had the NFD that picked up top pair? How come you'd check? Just curious.
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    @JapanTown can you tell us what line you took?
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    edited August 2015
    tomorrow33 wrote: »
    marseille wrote: »
    tomorrow33 wrote: »
    I agree that there is more f/e on betting turn than river if we weight him towards pairs but I just think given description of play there are way more draws here that will get sticky on turn. I don't know that many players folding second nut spade draws at these stakes- if he's decent, ok. But a big portion of draws that bet flop will be A high. When guys do bet medium pairs, I typically expect larger sizing on that board and not snap calls. I actually am looking for a brick on river, as I think better spades and SOME pairs will fold to bet. Does it look like whiffed draw? Maybe to a good player. (Then again I'd take that line with nut flush draw as well.)

    Yeah I agree that V has way more draws than pairs in his range and considering we currently have T high and a flush draw that might not be good I think the line with most fold equity is best. I haven't ever played at $5$/10 but I'd think there are players good enough to recognise that with that action and them holding the K high spade draw that there is a good chance they're drawing dead.

    As for the turn if you had the NFD that picked up top pair? How come you'd check? Just curious.

    @marseille You really think he is betting more on this flop with pocket pairs but not with his draws?

    Even so, count up the combos. We have 9 :s: T :s:, so he can't have either of those cards. I'd expect a raise pre-flop with AKss, so that leaves AQ, AJ, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, KQ, KJ, and QJ. That's 10 combos of better flush draws. If you really want to throw in Q8, J8, and J7, fine. Pretty loose pre-flop calling range, but fine. 13 combos.

    Of pairs, he can have 6 combos each of 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, JJ or QQ, and 3 combos each of 99 and TT. That's 48 combos.

    It just seems like, both logically and combinatorically, he's way, way more likely to have a pocket pair here than a flush draw.
  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    ANason21 wrote: »

    It just seems like, both logically and combinatorically, he's way, way more likely to have a pocket pair here than a flush draw.

    I think what @marseille and myself were conveying is that when V calls the 3 bet quickly on the flop is this indicative of mid PPs or a flush draw? I don't know if V snaps/calls quickly with a mid PP but that's just my thoughts.

    He could very well have mid pockets in which case we should definitely bet the turn.
  • marseillemarseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    tomorrow33 wrote: »

    As for the turn if you had the NFD that picked up top pair? How come you'd check? Just curious.

    It's a line I might take occasionally vs a solid player- if I thought they had more balanced range and might fold turn but look me up on river with worse pair. Or if I thought they were good enough to rep an A after I check. Vs this particular V though, the check is just because he seems really draw heavy and I'm not in the business of getting recs off draws. Until they miss of course...
    But I like your reasoning too- it's just that I think you need to be prepared to triple barrel a lot on rivers since you will have little showdown value. Totally agree with reverse implied odds of this hand, which is why I don't have a big problem bet/folding if you do chose to double barrel.
  • ANason21ANason21 Posts: 166Subscriber
    tomorrow33 wrote: »
    ANason21 wrote: »

    It just seems like, both logically and combinatorically, he's way, way more likely to have a pocket pair here than a flush draw.

    I think what @marseille and myself were conveying is that when V calls the 3 bet quickly on the flop is this indicative of mid PPs or a flush draw? I don't know if V snaps/calls quickly with a mid PP but that's just my thoughts.

    He could very well have mid pockets in which case we should definitely bet the turn.

    When he bets so small, I wouldn't read too much into how quickly he calls our raise. If he bet something normal on this flop, like $80, and we raised to $280 and he quickly called, I would agree that might be a timing tell. In this case, he's calling $80 to win $280. I think we should be focusing more on the size of the bet on the flop than on how quickly he calls a bet that's laying him 3.5 to 1.
  • marseillemarseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    ANason21 wrote: »

    When he bets so small, I wouldn't read too much into how quickly he calls our raise. If he bet something normal on this flop, like $80, and we raised to $280 and he quickly called, I would agree that might be a timing tell. In this case, he's calling $80 to win $280. I think we should be focusing more on the size of the bet on the flop than on how quickly he calls a bet that's laying him 3.5 to 1.

    I see where you are coming from. I can only go on my experience here- for the most part, guys usually need to cogitate a bit more or whatever passes for it when they hold a medium pair vs ch/r aggression. Does the sizing matter? Only if they are calculating pot odds, in which case they will probably need even longer lol. You're going to be wrong on occasion and get your correlations screwed up but I really believe exploiting these live tells is one of biggest edges you can have these days. Even otherwise good players are pretty bad at hustling to pick up every shred of data they can.
    Thanked by 1tomorrow33
  • I agree with another bet on the turn as V will have to fold out pretty much any hand that isn't the NFD or an already made hand (4 :s: 5 :s:, or a book).

    What's a book?

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited August 2015
    tomorrow33 wrote: »
    @JapanTown can you tell us what line you took?

    Most definitely, Sir/Madam, I will. It's been a great discussion so far and I'll give it a couple more days to settle down because I don't want the results to skew it.

  • tomorrow33tomorrow33 Posts: 485Subscriber
    JapanTown wrote: »
    I agree with another bet on the turn as V will have to fold out pretty much any hand that isn't the NFD or an already made hand (4 :s: 5 :s:, or a book).

    What's a book?

    A book is a full house. I'm from Australia so maybe it's something only we say. If someone says a "I booked it" it means they filled up etc
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