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Dominating Hands - Anyone know the probabilities?

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
Hey Bart (Or anyone else who may know this):
Question about being dominated or dominating someone else. I often call with A3 suited to outflush someone or I will smooth call with AK so if an A comes and they have an ace like AJ I can get a lot more money. Although this sounds good in theory I find it rarely happens for the stars to align like this which makes me question if this is right. Do you know the math on the probably of these things happening in a full ring game? I’ve looked online with no success. What are the odds of 2 people flopping a flush draw with 10 people in? What are the odds of 2 people in a 10 handed game floppin top pr?

Comments

  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    I guess noone knows so I did more research and took a shot. I'm not great with probabilities and I'm going off info I found online so if I'm incorrect please let me know but hopefully this gets the discussion started.

    AK vs A10-AQ (Dominating hand):
    The odds of 2 people in a 9 handed game of 2 people having aces is around 65%. The odds of you having AK and 1 opponent having A10-AQ is 25% (Hands you are likely to stack if an ace comes on the flop if you smooth call vs 3b). The odds of an ace coming on the flop when 2 people have them (2 left in deck) is 18%. Multiplying these means there about a 4% chance of getting into this scenario where you have AK. Are you going to get around 30 to 1 or better? Maybe.

    Flush over Flush (Suited aces):
    This one is more eye opening. Bart and I have mentioned playing suited aces to overflush someone. Hes talked about trying to overflush one of the field callers so maybe you should call a raise with a suited ace. Maybe not. The odds of flopping a flush draw with your 2 suited cards is 10.9%. The odds of it completing is 6.4% total. The odds of 2 players in a full ring game having the same 2 suited cards is 2.6%. Therefore the odds of 2 people in a full ring game flopping the same flush draw is 0.2 % (NOT 2%). The odds of both hitting are less than 0.1%. Are you getting potentially 1000 to 1 if you hit by calling that raise with your suited ace? Of course not!

    Please let me know anyone if any of this math is off.

    Dan VanDyke
  • Dan,

    I will openly admit that I DON'T know the odds in the situations with Ax suited types of hands which is why I have never really given a preflop formula like I have with scs and set mining. I think that the point hat you bring up are interesting although you have to realize that sometimes you can take it away when you dont hit.

    Bart
  • CajunDragonCajunDragon Posts: 173Member
    Poker Cruncher on iPad/iPhone will show your odds & probability on flopping draws (four flush/OESD).

    Flopping a flush with Ax suited is <2% so I always get mystified when 3 people out of 9 flop flushes at the same time.

    Here is an interesting link I have bookmarked with some mathematical info on pairs and such:
    http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/texas-hold-em/probability-pairs/
    Wizard of Odds is a good site. There may be some more hidden gems I haven't stumbled upon yet.

    Geoff
  • grindblergrindbler Posts: 131Member
    the odds of flopping a FD w/ sooted cards is the same as flopping a set with a PP. (@8 to 1)
    if two cards are removed its less likely by, i'm guesstimating @25% less. (?)
    it seems like you flop more FDs than sets w/ PPs is because you play more sooted cards than PPs??

    i think you need to be pretty deep to call raises w/ A3dd type hands, and it's a hand thats fine to overlimp if your opponents play a lot of sooted trash and stack off when overflushed...
    if youre playing these hands for wheel and flush possibilities, they are very speculative, more so than ppl tend to think...
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    Thats what I'm trying to do I guess Bart. Figure out a good idea on that. One poster on 2+2 told me the odds of FD or Flush over FD or Flush is around 2%. If hes right you need about 40 to 1 implied odds which means you need to be very deep to call a raise w a weak suited ace. Same is true for AK except I forgot about the fact the you can have someones king dominated as well so I'm thinking 20 to 1 there. Of course you can take it away but if you play in games like me where EVERYONE calls preflop I need to know my odds when actually hitting my hand because I"m not going to typically bluff into 8 people.

    I still wonder if smooth calling AK vs reraising is the right thing since it happens so infrequent where you have someone dominated. Maybe. I'll have to ponder on that one.
    Bart said

    Dan,

    I will openly admit that I DON'T know the odds in the situations with Ax suited types of hands which is why I have never really given a preflop formula like I have with scs and set mining. I think that the point hat you bring up are interesting although you have to realize that sometimes you can take it away when you dont hit.

    Bart
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