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PFR check/calls then check/raises

PokerIsFrustratingPokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
1/2 $300 max NL

Villain ($300) 30's white guy. Seems like a fishy player. I haven't seen a ton of hands he's played (Only at the table a little and the NCAA was kind of distracting :( ) Seems pretty loose/passive pre and hasn't raised a ton. Passive post from what I've seen. An orbit before he limp/called a raise to $19 from a $100 stack with A4dd, check/called an overbet when the flop came 239 with 1 diamond. Turn was an ace and it went check check. River was an offsuit 4 and villain bet like 1/3 pot and was good against Kings or something like that.

Hero ($500) Should have a pretty good image. Flopped top set Jacks and got it with a short stack who flopped middle pair and spazzed out. I also 3 bet AK, got called by a short stack and won with ace high (he didn't show). No history with Villain and haven't really shown any bluffs, so he has no reason to think I'm FOS.

Villain (UTG) raises to $10
Hero (MP) 3s 3d calls $10
everyone else folds

(20)
FLOP: Jh 9h 3d
Villain checks, hero bets $15, villain calls

(50)
Turn: Jh 9h 3d 8d
Villain checks, hero bets $35, villain instantly check raises to $135

Villain is kind of staring at me a little bit, but doesn't seem nervous or really worried.

I guess the post is more about what kind of range you would assign to villain, and what kind of hands would you call with. I was discussing with a friend and he thought this was AA-QQ or AJ a lot of the time, but I think this is much fewer overpairs or 1 pair hands and more skewed towards either a set, weird straight or some kind of weird turn bluff attempt. I would assume if I'm calling bottom set here I'm calling 98 if I had that. The only difference is the set has more equity vs a straight and kills some flush outs if he had that, but if I'm ahead with 33 I'm ahead with 98.

I almost never see loose/passive players take this line with an overpair. IMO he either has a hand that he thinks is a massive monster (2 pair+) or he's trying to bluff, which probably would mean he picked up turn equity. Most of the time if guys were going to bluff a front door flush draw they'd check/raise the flop or just bet.

I really think a guy with AA-QQ or AJ here either just bets the flop or MAYBE check/raises the flop. LP fish are scared of guys hitting 2 pair or w/e so he's not going to c/c AA and risk getting sucked out. If he did, he's not going to check/raise a really bad card (QT comes in, lots of 2 pairs come in etc) because he knows he would just check back 1 pair hands a lot on the turn, so he can't be sure I'm going to bet.

He seems relatively passive pre so I don't think he's opening J8s, probably not J9s. Would he open QTs? I wouldn't think so, but I suppose it could be possible. AK/AQ/KQdd I guess are possible, but of those 3 combinations I think he doesn't always c/c the flop, and I think most villains would just either bet the turn or check/call. We can maybe assign one combo of those IMO. He's not raising suited connectors in EP.

He could easily have JJ/99 although I think he'd check/raise the flop a lot. Heads up though I could see him maybe trying to slowplay I guess. You'd expect him not to check the turn but who knows. 88 is definitely possible as well. I don't think he has 2 pair here ever.

Given that it's 1/2 and he's bad we should also factor in some degree of spazz to his range where maybe he is making a weird play with AA or total air some % of the time.

Just curious what you think of my range analysis, and whether you'd ever consider folding bottom set (or 98) in this spot. Is this a snap shove back? Tank shove back? Sigh shove back? Just curious?

Just for full disclosure if villain had bet flop or bet turn I would never consider folding. I just almost never see this line at 1/2, especially from what seems like a passive player.

Comments

  • bobo1384bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    I think this line represents strength and I think villain is trying to slow play flop but I have a hard time putting villain on QT only because he limp called with A4 and I can't help but think he'd limp call with QT. however since he's a fish QT might be his favorite hand and if that's the case fuck a duck.

    I don't think villain is gonna spaz here with a draw.

    I do think villain could be doing this with overpairs because bad 1/2 villains check overpairs regardless of board texture to disguise their hand.
    K
    I think a reasonable range to give opponent is KK+, JJ , 99 , QTs. Against that range I shove.
  • HalHal Posts: 3Member
    I'm concerning about his flop action. It's a moderately wet flop and I think most rec players bet out their AA, KK, and QQ "for protection". An UTG raiser seems unlikely to have QTs. Even AJ is a stretch, but AJs, specifically AdJd could play the turn this way, but I still think AJ CBs for the same reasons as QQ+. I don't know if I could make the lay down, but I'm pretty scared of a bigger set here. It's not unusual for someone to have flopped top set and check to try to slow play or make someone think they've missed with AK.
  • TyrithTyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Hal said

    I'm concerning about his flop action. It's a moderately wet flop and I think most rec players bet out their AA, KK, and QQ "for protection". An UTG raiser seems unlikely to have QTs. Even AJ is a stretch, but AJs, specifically AdJd could play the turn this way, but I still think AJ CBs for the same reasons as QQ+. I don't know if I could make the lay down, but I'm pretty scared of a bigger set here. It's not unusual for someone to have flopped top set and check to try to slow play or make someone think they've missed with AK.
    I agree with this reasoning, on the whole - if he's making a genuine slow-play value raise, and he put in a UTG raise pre-flop, he's shouldn't be doing this with anything you beat due to the board texture. Overpairs and AJ should be firing on the flop. He could definitely play 88 like this, although I'm not sure he'd raise 88 UTG preflop, and JJ/99 could play this as a trap, waiting for a "safe" (non-flush) card to come to get a bunch of money in.

    My question, however, is if this guy is bad enough that he's going to play an overpair like a set and try to trap someone with top pair. If he falls in love with his big pre-flop hands this is definitely possible, IMO, because of how bad his understanding of hand values seems to be. Not to mention if he's a new/terrible/random player, there's a certain amount of unpredictable spew factor we should put in here, and we definitely beat all his spews.

    I think I raise this one back, because if he has a worse hand the easiest time to get his money is going to be now, since a heart or now a diamond is a potential action killer. I doubt he's folding any part of his range here (Bart's raise/fold theory) unless he's potentially got one of the crazy/spew hands, and in those cases you aren't getting any more money unless he hits.
  • GypsydcGypsydc Posts: 21Subscriber
    AhTh or AdTd does this a ton in this game. They're pretty damn excited with the thought of completing their draw, especially if it's a flush. What's been the usual pf raise at the table? Is $10 the norm? Because someone with 99-JJ likes to make it excessively big pre and just take blinds. QT seems unlikely and I think he'd lead flop with QQ-AA or at the very least check/raise you there. 88 could be a possibility but I'm still getting it in here, and he'll call with his combo draw.
  • jmcjmc Posts: 58Member
    It's tough to put your opponent on a legitimate hand here. I don't really expect QT, but if that's the case, you still have outs. I'd be most upset if villain somehow turned up with JJ or 88 in this spot.

    In any case, it seems more like villain is just spazzing out here with AT, TT, diamonds, "slowplayed" overpair or something like that because he's bad. I mean, he called a large preflop raise and a large cbet with an over card/gutshot/backdoor flush draw right?

    I think jamming now or calling to bluff-catch the river are fine, depending on opponent. Jam if you're not sure.
  • PokerIsFrustratingPokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    $10 was pretty standard. Seems standard for 1/2.

    I don't think I can really call because if he has a draw he's not folding, so I need to get the money in now. If he has an overpair he's also not folding.

    I thought it was interesting in terms of range. I really don't see guys slowplay overpairs 150bb deep even if they're terrible for the most part.

    What would be the cutoff for you guys in terms of shoving vs folding here? If I think 33 is ahead I should think 98 is ahead. The only difference is that hands I beat (including overpairs and draws) have more outs and if he has QT I have fewer outs.

    What if I had QQ here or AJ? That's where I really wonder if he shows up with aces or kings.
  • HalHal Posts: 3Member


    What if I had QQ here or AJ? That's where I really wonder if he shows up with aces or kings.
    Insta-fold if you have the red Queens. And I think fold no matter what. Every made hand beats you and all the rest are drawing well. Calling $100 to win $220. Is this a draw more than a third of the time - I think not. Maybe like a tenth.
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