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2/5 200bb weak TP+FD vs solid regular

martinst-pierremartinst-pierre Posts: 8Member
Villain BB: 1500$ clean cut white 25 yo regular that seems to know all the waitress' and dealers. His hair is combed like a young Elvis. He plays a very solid TAG game from what I've seen.

Hero BTN: 975$ 25 y/o baseball cap, TAG with a good image.

Dynamic: I've been at the table with him for a good two hours and it's a very soft table with two big spots. He has not 3bet me a single time and the few pots that we have played together had been pretty standart.



Dealt to hero: Qc 3c

folded to CO (60s loose passive fit or fold guy) who limps, I make it 25 from the BTN, villain calls from the SB and CO folds.


FLOP: Qh Tc 6c (pot 60$)
BB checks, Hero bets 45$, BB raises to 115$, Hero calls.

Turn: 4s (pot 290$)
BB bets 140$, Hero calls


River: 5h (pot 570$)
BB checks, Hero checks

Comments

  • ChristopherSigmanChristopherSigman Posts: 1,147Subscriber
    What range are you putting solid TAG villain on who calls out of the blind and c/r on the flop? Of the hands that beat you, I would think AA, KK, QQ, TT, AQ, KQ, QJ, and QT are all within his range, although some combos of the big pairs should be discounted as he may re-raise with some of those combos pre-flop.

    Of the hands that you are ahead of on the flop that he takes the same line with (call pf, c/r flop) are KJ and Axcc, maybe 98cc (double gutter, straight flush draw).

    I think you have enough equity against most of the entire range that you can call the flop c/r. However, I'm hating the turn bet, as I don't get any more info about the strength of villain's hand, especially if villain is capable of taking this line with the nut flush draw as well as sets, two-pairs, better top-pairs, and over-pairs.
  • The range u said looks good...but I think he calls flop with QJ/KQ most of the time. OTR I think only AQ or KQs has me beat but unfortunately I feel it's a bit too late to apply some heat. Some people told me to Click it back on the flop in order to freeze him and see both turn and river.
  • Probably absolute maximum fold equity can be achieved by raising the turn, although I'm not a fan of it. Seems to me like he has AQ or KQ and I am definitely not bluffing the river after you just call flop and turn. I am also not a fan of 3 bet semi bluffing flop although the clickback is somewhat interesting. Problem is that he is probably just going to shove QT.

    Bart
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    I've gone back and forth with raising the turn to achieve maximum FE and ultimately believe it is not worth the variance.
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