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NLHE 1/2 QQ vs bad lag, Lost value?

pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
edited December 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2. Villain is thinking he can pull a big move bluff raise when A. It usually doesn't make sense in the spots he does it and B. Nobody is folding at 1/2 once they bet unless they just have a low pair on a scare board. He's basically face up, betting hands and check calling draws even drawing to pair his Ace. When he raises someones bet it's 50/50 bluff/good hand. I had raised him big on a river when I hit the nut flush and he called but didn't show.

Villain UTG
UTG+1 limps, MP limps
Hero in CO with QQ (rainbow board, suits won't matter) raise to $15 which has been standard for me in CO/Button when limpers have already come in.

Folds to Villain who calls, folds to me.

Flop J83 (Pot $39)
Villain bets $35, Hero calls

I debated a raise but I felt like I might be face up and I wanted him to think his J is good. I really feel like this is what he has when he leads that board.

Turn 8 (Pot $109)
Villain bets $55

Hero? I'm at least calling but should I raise now? Thinking I should have just raised the flop because now a scare card is messing up my plan to let this guy make a move at me with a J. We are both WA/WB now and he might find a fold.

Comments

  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    What are he effective stacks?

    Him leading here is kinda worrisome but from your description and his turn follow up Im thinking we are good. i think we see draws and TP here a lot.

    Im discounting 83 JJ J3 and 88 from his range but keeping in J8 and 33 as only hands that beat us. But his post flop action doesn't seem to say he has a monster though.

    Im raising turn here to charge his str8 draws along with TP but not that big. Im not sure what ur river raise was but I'm raising smaller then that, maybe close to 120, setting up a decent sized river bet like 200 or so.

    If this guy raises turn I think we have to pay him off but of course this all changes if we are super deep or super shallow.
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Sorry, effective stacks $350 so there is room for river play either way but I don't think I can fold if I raise.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    To most standard villains here folding might be a very viable option but if we go from your read them folding should not be an option.

    If for some reason you feel he might be strong here then call turn and re evaluation river.
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