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Missed River Value With Set?

dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,060Subscriber
edited December 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$5/$10 at Bellagio, Around 9:30 PM on a Friday, the first day of the WPT Five Diamond Classic Preliminary Events

(Posting from my phone - Pardon any typos)

Hero (Button, $1700) Previous table broke, just moved to this table less than an orbit ago.

Villain (CO, $6000) mid-20s kid, clearly a solid player, not just because of his stack, but the way he handles his chips.

SB ($1000) and BB ($2000) are unknown as well.

Folds to villain who raises to $30.  Hero calls with 99.  Blind call.

Pot $120.  Flop 3x 4c 9c.
Blinds check.  Villain bets $70.  Hero raises to $230.  Blinds fold.  Villain calls.

Pot $600.  Turn Tx.
Villain checks.  Hero bets $400.  Villain calls.

Pot $1400.  River Qc.
Villain checks.  Hero has set up a river shove pretty nicely ($1060 left), but checks behind.

Preflop, I put David Chan's philosophy on 3-being into action. I suspected Villain would 4-Bet or fold, so I want to have a polarized raising range here. Easy call in position.

I think flop and turn are standard. I feel like my sizing was good, but please comment if you feel otherwise.

On the river, I didn't want to see the club come. Not because I think villain has a hand like the but flush draw (he probably reraises the flop with that holding). I feel like villain's range is pretty much JJ+, and he won't pay me off with a hand like KK now since clubs got there. The only hand he calls with is QQ, which beats me. The question: Does he actually call any size bet with worse? I don't think he ever folds better, and he never calls worse, so why bet?

Interesting thought I had after the fact, though: Perhaps I should have bet small (like $350) to induce a bluff shove by AcAx. That's the only way I get any value at all, right?

Thoughts?

Comments

  • luckyspewyluckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    Check through. Can't see us getting action from worse. He probably doesn't have a ton of flushes for checking the river, but the times that he does c/r I think we're beat more often than not IMO. Your bet to induce is an interesting idea, but stacks are probably a bit too shallow.
  • luckyspewyluckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    FWIW I also like flatting nines a lot more ip against an unknown that 3betting
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    The better the player is... the more likely I am going to check the obvious scare card on the river. I am doing this for these reasons:

    1) he unlike other abc players might be capable of cr bluffing on the river and then what do I do? even though this is not the exact same situation

    2) he is also capable of checking to me to allow me to bet my hand thinly whereas a rec player would shove with a flush in this spot..

    That said this is the perfect scare card.. front door flush back door straight.. If he shoves how can you call unless you have a pretty high flush??

    So unless I have seen him before and my assumption is he is a good player he isnt paying me off anyways so yeah I am probably going to check behind.. partly too because I really want to see what he has and put that in my memory banks for future use..

    If he ends up with a hand like AA and calls me down but doesnt bluff that river.. then he isnt as good a player as you think..

    remember .. MOST players do NOT push their draws.. so he can most of the time ship river because YOU having raised the flop has more sets over pairs and 34 some of the time..

    ww
  • floppedawheelfloppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    i guess it depends on how often you expect him to C/R bluff river and whether you're comfortable calling off if he check/ships. usually though villains will bet the river with a flush especially when you've shown your level of strength. so once you eliminate that, you don't have all that much to worry about and might as well bet/call 450 or so even if you think he's going to fold the vast majority of the time. i mean, this action is in keeping with, say, bottom set, or KK/AA, and he could very well call with those hands. those seem more likely than just checking the river once his card comes.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,113Administrator, LeadPro
    edited December 2014
    Come on guys--A check raise with AA with the ace of clubs on the river to get you off of a set doesnt exist at this level or any level. You might see the play made 1 out of 1000 times in this situation. So betting the river to induce A A× is probably a 1 in 15,000 proposition.

    If he was going to bluff the flush he would have bet the river from up front. Bet $4-$500 at the end. People still have trouble folding aces or kings.

    Bart
    Thanked by 1FreeLunch
  • luckyspewyluckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    yeah, so youre checking thru Bart?
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,113Administrator, LeadPro
    Read above, Lucky
  • luckyspewyluckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    THANKS BRO!
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