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can I fold here?

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
edited December 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm on button w 4s4c. Utg raises to 20. I call. Heads up. 25 game. Heads up. Flip is 763r. He bets 40. I call. Turn is 4 bringing in back door fd. He bets 40 again. I make it 120. He shoves all in for 200 more. Do I call? I called and he showed 77

Comments

  • CalgaryPokerGuyCalgaryPokerGuy Posts: 342Subscriber
    Off the top of my head I think it's a fold. Let's do the math:

    - preflop pot is say 45
    - flop pot is 125
    - turn pot is 125+320(his stack)+120(your raise) = 565
    - 200 more to call, so you're getting 2.83 to 1
    - you need to be good at least every 1 in 3.83 times = 26%

    I'm actually surprised he bet/3bet-shoves his stack on the turn on a 7634 board with top set, but against this hand you have 5 outs (11%). Against a 5 you have 10 outs (22%). If he's ever doing this with an overpair then you have over 95% there, and including this into his range it becomes a call. Pretty villain dependent, I don't see most people bet/3-bet-shoving their stack with KK or AA there but you never know. Most of the time you should be up against a straight there.

    So if he is horrible enough to shove an overpair then you can call, otherwise you're not getting the right price to call and it's a fold. My thoughts anyways.

  • luckyspewyluckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    Dont raise turn right? I mean arent we only getting action from better once we raise, isn't he folding out 88-2pair? Im surprised he shoved a better set actually.
  • Sean777Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    Well played by the villain, and agree I'm not raising turn with a one-liner out there.

    If we do raise, and he does come back over the top, then yeah I'm folding for $200 more if our villain isn't clueless.
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