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RTR--Complex Turn spot 110BB effective

Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
edited December 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Commerce 4am $5-10NL

Villain in the hand is a very nitty Asian man late 40s. Hero has above average image and sits with $3500. Villain starts with $1100.

Hero raises to $35 UTG with A K. Villain calls UTG+1. Button calls with $1500 stack.

FLOP: A 4 3

Hero bets $65. UTG1 insta raises to $165, button folds Hero calls.

TURN: 4 :s:

Hero checks, UTG1 bets $235.

If you decide to call turn what is your plan for the river?

I think that this hand is a great example of conditional probability and weighted combinatorics when evaluating structured hand analysis. It also shows that sometimes a situation actually may be easier to play when deeper.

Bart
Thanked by 1GlennJones
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Comments

  • Sean777Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    Well, he called an early position raise and he's nitty. So he has a lot of big aces. Is he raising them on that flop? It's dry as fuck so quite possibly.

    Very nitty means he never ever has a straight or even like 56 except maybe once in a million years it's 56 of spades, and even that's a stretch to say he'll call pre, RAISE flop, and double barrel when he turns additional equity.

    I suppose it's possible for him to have A4 suited, but honestly my definition of 'very nitty' means he's not calling with that from early position. I don't believe he has A4 or A3, and of course A3 just got counterfeit if he even had it to begin with.

    So if we throw that out too, he's got AQ, same hand, quads, or 3's full.

    The problem with this hand is stack sizes, and I see exactly what you mean by easier to play if deeper.

    This dude is checking behind with one pair a lot on the river if we're sitting 2k or 3k deep.

    But after we call the $235, which I think I'm almost always doing, then he has about $650 or so left, and the pot is over $1,000. And if the river comes out clean, he's gotta feel like AK is the nuts there. So being so shallow of course we expect him to put the rest in.

    I definitely feel being deeper I would be okay check-folding the river here if he blasts it, because there is no way he's going to want to open the betting back up in position on the river with one pair and another $1500 behind. Not a nitty guy I think.

    Any chance he has AQs or AKs and continues to bet with top pair and his turned draw? I think it's possible. The 4 is a pretty good card for us since it way cuts down on his number of possible sets, and his sizing really looks a lot like he has AK. I believe I'm calling the turn, and doing a show like I'm definitely going to call, chips in hand etc like you'll see the Armenian guys do when they really don't want you to bet, but they're definitely not going to fold(lol). Try and get any possible read off of him, maybe even ask him the standard 'AK no good?' line if he jams.

    If he *does* bet the river, and absent of any reads, I can't imagine we're doing better than chopping. Maybe he just decides to go with AQ, but again I go back to 'very nitty.' I believe he can raise and bet the turn with AQ, but he'll probably just take the showdown with it on the river if he's like most nits. Meh, whether we call there to chop or not is a math problem that I'm never doing in real time, but it's going to be $650 for us to get back about $500 approximately, which means we have to have the same hand like 60% of the time for the call to be break even? Sounds about right to me, even though I don't think we can do better than chop I feel a call would be proper.



    Thanked by 1neverlearn2
  • StarwarsJediMasterStarwarsJediMaster Posts: 741Subscriber
    easy call
  • ChristopherSigmanChristopherSigman Posts: 1,147Subscriber
    Isn't this your classic 5th street chicken spot? Call turn, probably fold river?
  • NittyTagNittyTag Posts: 22Subscriber
    I am excluding AA-QQ from his range based on the fact he did not 3bet pre-flop when he is so early to act, and I am excluding wheel-type hands based on the description that he is "very nitty." I don't think his play is consistent with JJ-lower, either, so his value range is going to be a big ace, a set of 3s, quads, and two pair.

    If we can assume he would only call your pre-flop raise with a small suited ace, that pretty much takes two pair out of his value range, because he can't have suited A4 and the 4 on the turn counterfeits A3. There are 3 combos of 33 and one combo of 44 that have us in bad shape. There are a lot more AK/AQ/AJ in his range.

    If we call the turn, I think there is about $900 in the pot and he has about $700 left. I'm not good at the math in this situation, but it seems like we are not in a position to bet-fold the river, and it feels too thin to be a value bet. I'd probably check the river and evaluate. We look very much like we have an ace once we call his turn bet. If he has a strong ace, is he raising the flop, betting the turn, AND betting the river? If he bets on the river, it feels like we are hoping to chop.
  • PocketAceTrader782PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 441Subscriber
    Bart wrote:
    Commerce 4am $5-10NL

    Villain in the hand is a very nitty Asian man late 40s. Hero has above average image and sits with $3500. Villain starts with $1100.

    Hero raises to $35 UTG with A K. Villain calls UTG+1. Button calls with $1500 stack.

    FLOP: A 4 3

    Hero bets $65. UTG1 insta raises to $165, button folds Hero calls.

    TURN: 4 :s:

    Hero checks, UTG1 bets $235.

    If you decide to call turn what is your plan for the river?

    I think that this hand is a great example of conditional probability and weighted combinatorics when evaluating structured hand analysis. It also shows that sometimes a situation actually may be easier to play when deeper.

    Bart

    I think there may be a frequency where he three bets pre flop with AK.

    I don't see too many "very nitty" guys raising the flop with something less then two pair or a set. On the turn, you need to be good 1-3.7 times If the river goes chk-chk. I think you can call the turn and chk-food the river.

    Carmine
  • floppedawheelfloppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    sure we can take a check/call line on the river, but we lose value when he's got AQ (and maybe AJ) and just checks it back. i like a bet/call line more on all non-Q, non-J rivers because we can narrow his range so precisely to hands we're beating and hands we're behind.

    just because we've taken a bet/call, check/call line on the flop and turn doesn't mean we have to take a check/call line on the river. the reason we haven't come back over the top on the flop or turn is we don't want to scare off aces that we beat or just get it in bad vs sets. with the turn a 4 and the set combos diminished, that makes it that much more likely we're up against an ace. but here on the river, i think he'd be hard-pressed to fold AQ or AJ for another bet with 900 already in the pot. but, if we check, he's very likely to just check it back, which sucks for us.

    because he's "very nitty" and because of what we hold and what's on the board, we can drastically diminish A3/A4 combos. there's only one combo left of suited aces we lose to: A 3 and that's if he'd play that out OOP. all the other combos are accounted for. and we can safely assume he's never bluffing. but we can virtually eliminate that hand from his range because he'd rarely bet the turn with it once the board pairs.

    so all he can realistically have are AK/AQ/AJ/33/44. and we can predict he'll call a river bet with all of those hands. it's as simple as estimating how many combos of each to assess how often we're ahead. if we're ahead often enough, then we bet the river.

    we chop with AK, so let's ignore those combos, if we never think we can get him off a chop (debatable i guess).

    that leaves a total of 8 combos of AQ; 8 of AJ; 3 of 33; and 1 of 44.

    let's give the combos an estimated weight:

    AQ: raises flop 6 of 8 times, bets turn half of the 6. leaves 3 combos.

    AJ: raises flop 4 of 8 times, bets turn 1 of those 4. 1 combo.

    33/44: let's just say he plays these 4 total combos this way 75% of the time. 3 combos

    if you accept those combos, we're ahead 4 out of 7 times. so we're +EV on a river bet, if the river isn't a Q or J, if we think he'll always call our bet.

    the hardest question in the hand might be, how much? a ship is too much to get calls from AQ/AJ. i think i like a bet/call of 375. if he decides to ship, it'll be 275 to win 1,925. we'd be getting 7 to 1 but we'd have to call that off, because too often, he'll just to decide to stuff that last little bit in. if you think he'd do that with only AK, though, then it's 275 to win 850+, which might be debatable but i think it's still a call.

    this is a lot to think of at the table i guess but even at a glance it's clear that hands we beat are very much diminished, so even in the moment we should at least strongly consider betting for value on the river with this runout.



  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Bart

    Even if hes NITTY have you seen him raise with AQ on this type of board before? If so then I can include AQ and maybe even AJ suited in his range. Because the board paired its much less likely he has a full house and as others have said its really unlikey he can have a flopped straight.

    Nitty players if they did have a straight would have waited til the turn to raise so I also think his line doesnt fit this.

    His turn bet is actually quite small no? I see nitty players either bet small because they are weak or small because they have a monster.. So call and maybe lead the river for say same bet and fold to a ship?

    If you are worried about stacks then maybe the best line is to just check call to a small bet or check fold if he bets again on the river. This of course assuming he is a typical showdown monkey..

    If you have seen him do this with like AQ or AJ then I think your better line is to call turn and just bet river either all in if you think he will never fold any ace.. also if you have seen him slowplay sets and four of a kind I would be even more comfortable with that play.

    ww
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
    edited December 2014
    Ill throw something else out at you that I didn't think of at the time. If I don't think he's betting quad 4s on the turn will I ever get raised on the river with my line if I bet 250-300? BTW river was a T.

    Bart
  • Topset1610Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    ^ That is what I was going to say. I just think you are ahead of his range. I would have actually maybe made a click back raise on the turn and then a small river bet to try to get max value.

    A4 is basically the only hand I am worried about here (Again another hand he might have checked on the turn). The T was not the best card, because it hits the bottom of his range. I think the only hand he would be raising a river bet with on is A4, 43, or 44.
  • floppedawheelfloppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    Topset1610 wrote:

    A4 is basically the only hand I am worried about here

    there are no suited A4's left. the 4d, 4s, Ac, Ah are all out.... so a "very nitty" player would have to be calling pre OOP with A4o
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  • Topset1610Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    Topset1610 wrote:

    A4 is basically the only hand I am worried about here

    there are no suited A4's left. the 4d, 4s, Ac, Ah are all out.... so a "very nitty" player would have to be calling pre OOP with A4o

    Good point. I do not really think that hand is likely in his range. I was just saying that is like the only hand I could potentially see him holding where we are behind and he would raise on the river. He could have AT, but I think he is likely just calling on the river. IMO villain most likely holds AK, AQ, AJ, or AT.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
    I dont think he ever has AT or AJ
  • workinghardworkinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    That instant lazy raise on the flop where he just adds 100 to whatever you bet is a strong move and to me precludes a weaker big ace. On the flop I'm thinking AK, A3, or a set. Good point from topset that he can't have A4s. With the turn bet I dont mind a fold as I think you are chopping at best. If you call turn then check fold river. I personally hate it when I give nitty players action.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Agree with Sean777 post here. Wrote most of the stuff that I wanted to say
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Topset1610 wrote:
    ^ That is what I was going to say. I just think you are ahead of his range. I would have actually maybe made a click back raise on the turn and then a small river bet to try to get max value.

    A4 is basically the only hand I am worried about here (Again another hand he might have checked on the turn). The T was not the best card, because it hits the bottom of his range. I think the only hand he would be raising a river bet with on is A4, 43, or 44.

    the problem with this line topset is NITTY players are just looking for an excuse to hero fold. I dont think he is going to call as often as he will fold. I think leading small on the river is a better line as he is surely calling with a weaker ace..

    since hes never raising the flop and betting the turn with say A5 -9 I think his range is ace T+ here alot.. hes gonna call and ONLY raise if he has a boat like A4..

    ww
  • Sean777Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    Bart wrote:
    Ill throw something else out at you that I didn't think of at the time. If I don't think he's betting quad 4s on the turn will I ever get raised on the river with my line if I bet 250-300? BTW river was a T.

    Bart

    He may still jam with AK this short....and I think it's a little optimistic to think he'll slow down and not bet quads with an ace on board after you already called the flop.


  • beauregardbeauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    in our games, the very nitty guy who raise the flop and bets small on the turn shows up with a boat or better.
    there's always a tiny chance that he's spewing on a spaz - but that typically doesn't happen.

    why you'd want to call the turn and bet small on the turn (and fold to an all in) is beyond me. based on your Vil description, you're either chopping or toast... most likely toast.
  • ddzddz Posts: 152Subscriber, Professional
    edited December 2014
    I think Wendy's question is the most relevant - have u ever seen him raise a flop like this with a big Ace?

    Some nitty villains will just call down with AQ or AK (or AJ, which u say u don't think he has). If he's super nitty, isn't calling an EP raise with A4 suited, and isn't raising the flop with Aq or AK, then I think we're crushed (even tho that makes his range super narrow...)

    I think the info about his flop play with those big aces is the key piece of info I would need to make my decision
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    is this hand discussed in a podcast? Would like to listen
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
    It will be for tomorrow
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