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Jacks pre to cold 4bet

chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
Live 5/5nl, $1500max. Late on a Saturday night game is pretty typical with some fishy play and some solid / strong players. This game due to the buy in range, plays closer to 5/10 than 2/5. I have been in the main game from the must move for about an hour. I haven't played with any of the villians before this session.

Fishy : UTG+1, $1100. Have seen him cold call 3bets a couple times and bluff once in a big pot in a bad spot.
Hero: utg+3, $1200. Haven't gotten out of line since I've been at the main table. Probably viewed as TAG with some capability for creativity. Have won a couple of small-med pots since I came to main game.
MP2: utg+4, $2200. Seems like a typical online transplant who opens a wide range and cbets a high %. Has shown ability to bet/fold and isn't afraid to snap fold (no hollywooding) when raised, even with value-ish hands.
SB, $440. new to main game in the last 5 mins. Bought in short at must move game, so unsure of competency. Haven't played with him before and only for about 30mins total tonight.

Fishy opens to $25 utg+1, hero raises with JJ to $85, MP2 cold calls $85, SB ships for $440. Fishy folds. Hero?

Comments

  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    If he's an unknown, I'm leaning towards a fold. I probably would have flat UTG+1 with JJ, but that's another discussion.

    He probably isn't assuming you're a 3-betting machine if you haven't played with him before. Which means you're already showing a lot of strength by 3-betting an early raiser. Which means that most hands he's shoving are going to be better than JJ.
  • Gordon806Gordon806 Posts: 59Member
    Sb screams AK, but since you don't know anything about him it is tough but I have seen shorter stacks also do this with 77-TT. I would call the $440 from a complete unknown and since your move looks very strong would fold to the MP2 coming over the top. If he flats, he could still have worse than JJ considering the pot would be about 1k. Playing OOP sucks but I don't think he is calling much unless he has a good read on you.
  • Gordon806Gordon806 Posts: 59Member
    Btw, like the 3-bet pre with a fish opening to get position on him and the small stack in the blinds. I'm even 3-betting wider here if I know the shorter stack is a fish. MP2 just got in your way or this would have played out even better.
  • RogerHardyRogerHardy Posts: 795Subscriber
    Tough one.

    We're basically hoping the shipper has TT, and the cold caller has AQo? I can see the shipper getting it in with < JJ given the stack sizes and the action; and I can see the cold caller having AQo (isn't he raising anything better?). So if that's the case you'd need to basically push it all in to get it heads up with SB; and if you do that and you're wrong you're losing your stack. So it seems like you effectively putting your whole stack on the line to win about half of it back if you're right. So you need ~ 33% equity. My gut feeling in this spot is you don't, but that's based on my game, not yours. Unless you think a raise all in gets the cold caller or the fishy opener off of QQ which would give you some fold equity? and you might not get the AK to fold, so you can still lose.

    This was a random stream of thoughts, I didn't take a lot of precise care on the math. But basically 4 people including you have said they have some kind of reasonable hand, what are the chances that at random the other 3 players are at the bottom of their raising range thats less than JJ?

    Plus you're only in for $85, so you're not out a ton if you fold.

    If you call the 440 to limit your exposure, now you're really hoping MP2 folds; and he might come along with 2 players in already for 440. Plus the opener could have AA or KK. So if you call and it doesn't go heads up, you're still stuck playing for stacks with JJ after the flop; or watching MP2 come over the top of you.

    Maybe its just me, but I think its a fold. I don't see how you get it all in here with the best of it.

    Roger
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I think it's more likely that MP2 has some kind of pair like 88-TT or maybe even QQ and isn't sure about your 3-bet range. I wouldn't discount AA or KK completely from his range either if he's a thinking player, which he probably is given his description. If I had AA or KK in his spot, I would always flat there to make sure the fish also calls. And then I can have a disguised hand post-flop in position.

    If MP2 has 88-TT, he's not putting another chip in the pot. If he's slowplaying AA or KK, then you lose your stack. Not exactly risk/reward effective to iso-raise the short stack here, is it?

    And given the situation, I doubt the SB is shoving light if you've been playing on the tighter and more solid side. He can't really ever expect everyone to fold when he ships here. So his range should be rather strong.
    The worst hand you can ever hope he has is AK, otherwise it's QQ+

    So it's not that close. QQ would even be borderline
  • I like the 3bet for value, now fold to the 4bet IMO.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I'd call if it was heads up with the SB, but with the player behind still left to act. you have to fold here. You are basically hoping to see AK from the SB, but MP2 can easily have QQ or AA. Given his stack size and position, you just have to fold.

    In case I was convinced that SB is shoving pretty light and that MP2 would 4bet QQ+ and AK, then I would probably 5bet, which is basically a shove.

    Flatcalling has to be the worst option with JJ. The only hand I would consider doing this with is AA.
  • MikeMike Posts: 371Member
    I think im the only one who thinks that the short stacks range is fairly wide here. I cant ever imagine him folding hands like 88 and AQ. In the games I play in anyway this is an easy shove. I think shoving is better than folding is better than calling. If we just call here MP2 should have a fairly side range that is mostly implied odds type of hands. I wouldnt worry too much about him behind us but we dont want to call and have him shove AQ or something.

    If you are folding JJ here then i dont think you should be 3b it.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Here is my thinking for 3betting JJ in this hand: often I see the flop in position with the best hand vs a fishy player and with the initiative. I also limit loose tag alongs behind me and usually am able to win a small-med pot on the flop.
    A couple of unexpected things happened here: a player who I thought to have poker fundamentals and was usually erring on the side of aggression cold calls a three bet with several people yet to act, the SB apparently wakes up with a good hand and ships it in.

    I think it is sometimes ok to raise/fold for value , even preflop. Or am I way off base here ?
    Mike- would you rather I flat call the open and then flat call again when either MP2 or SB 3bets?
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Mike said

    If you are folding JJ here then i dont think you should be 3b it.
    I don't agree with this at all. I think this is results-oriented thinking.

    When deciding between 3betting or flattcalling, we should have a certain purpose and a plan for the remainder of the hand in mind. The purpose to 3bet could be to isolate a player / reduce the number of people you have to play against postflop, build the pot, reduce the SPR, realize fold equity, make villain play straightforward postflop, etc.

    No matter what your intention for 3betting was in this hand, all those objectives go out of the window when something unexpected happens. Once you are coldcalled AND 4bet from TWO ADDITIONAL players who both are not the initial open raiser, you have to reevaluate the situation, and see what the best play is now. And folding could easily the best play, even though 3betting was the best play the first time around.

    It would be totally different if there had been indications that something like this is going to happen a decent % of the time, e.g. because the late position villain is very loose and call happy and the SB is an aggro squeeze-monkey. But from your description, I don't see that you could have anticipated that.

    If all we know about the SB is "new to main game in the last 5 mins. Bought in short at must move game, so unsure of competency. Haven't played with him before and only for about 30mins total tonight ", then we have no way of knowing if his squeezing range is wide or not. But since > 90% of players on this level don't have a wide squeezing range, the probability that this specific villain is an aggro squeezer should be rather low.

    Mike, I would agree with your statement if the initial openraiser 4bets us, because that's something we HAVE TO anticipate, and since the 3bet was clearly for value, a case could be made that folding to a 4bet is a mistake. But that's a completely different story, IMO.
  • I guess I'll explain myself. 3bet isoing a fish deep with a Top 5 hand for value and folding to a 4bet is no reason to "not 3bet." That's such results orientated thinking. Cold call and then a 4bet ship is so strong. Without reads I just fold to the 4bet.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Results below:
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    I folded and MP2 called with what I assume was AK. The board ran out queen high and the SB's TT held to scoop. SB said "I just wanted to take it down preflop", so not a deep thinker obv. I think in his spot with all the preflop action before it got to him, I would be more leaning towards folding than sending it in.
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