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river bet sizing w/straight

PokerIsFrustratingPokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
This is a little hand but I thought the spot comes up often and I'm interested in your reasoning.

1/2 nl 300 max.

Hero (400) image isn't great. Got some decent hands but Chet flops and villains folded. Recently I've raised some good hands pre, but had to fold post when boards ran out bad and I had multiple callers. I think I had a few cbets also that got called and I gave up.

Villain (140-145) 40s black guy. Rec player. Fairly stationy but hasn't got involved in any real big pots. Seems to like to calls down random draws.

Utg limps
Mp limps
Mp limps
Hero (co) t d 9 d limps
Villain (button) limps
Sb folds
Bb checks

(12)
Flop: 8 d 7 h 2c

Checks to hero, hero bets 10, villain calls, others fold

(30)

Turn: 8d 7h 2c js

Hero bets 30, villain calls

(88)
River: 8d 7h 2c js 6h

Hero bets $?

Villain called flop fairly quickly. Ott he didn't snap call but didn't take super long and didn't seem super pained.

It's hard for villain to have a jack here and he might fold a 1 pair 8 or 7 (just b/c fish think 89is different than j9 here). If he has 65 or some other draw he probably doesn't call a big bet unless maybe he hit jack ten on the turn, but he still might fold to a shove. If he has 2pr+ he's calling a shove.

Is this just a shove and hope he has 2 pair or a random jack?

Is there any merit to betting 60 or 70? If he's calling 65 isn't he calling 90 or 100?

I was thinking it's a small bet or shove and since he's stationy I default bet big. Thoughts?

Comments

  • MikeMike Posts: 371Member
    Just put him in. Could also overbet the turn a tiny bit to make the river shove for less than pot. No one is gonna notice if you bet 40/30 rather than 30/30. The only people that might are the better players but it wont change their decision.
  • TechranmanTechranman Posts: 11Member
    I wouldn't put him all in. Usually players won't call if they don't feel like they have a hand that "they have to call" with and there really isn't anything like that here unless he is just really passively playing a set or two pair. Put in 65ish as to leave him with some chips behind.

    Players seem to kind of like calling better when they call a bet that is obviously just about twice the size of the previous bet, at least in my opinion. Has anyone else noticed that?
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I would bet around 60-65 as well. I doubt he will call a shove with 8x or 7x very often (which is a big part of his range IMO), unless he is really bad.
  • Actually had a very similar hand where I overlimped 33. Flop came 432 with 2 spades. I bet 10 into 10 and a stationy player string bet trying to raise to25, so he hhad to call. Turn came an offsuit 4 and I just led for 30 bc I was afraid he'd check back a straight or pp. He called. River is the ten of spades completing the front door flush. He had 125 and the pot was 90.

    I thought the guy might call with a straight or trips so I moved him in for >pot and he tank folded. But for like 10 minutes everyone at the table was saying I had nothing, especially the guy who ended up folding.

    So I'm wondering if I should bet less bc fish somehow convince themselves I have nothing but still don't call bc of scare card

    Edit: next time this comes up I'll try overbetting pot on turn to set up a smaller river shove, but you can only take that so far
  • CrazyCBettorCrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    His most likely hands are 89, 8T, 79, 7T. I would not bet more than 40-50 here.
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