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Too thin to raise/fold?

Dragon-AshDragon-Ash Posts: 203Subscriber
Weak/passive £1/2 table, mostly unknowns. Everyone's deep (effective stacks about £1,000). Five-way limped pot, I check in the BB with J9o.

Flop (£10): AJ9 rainbow.

I bet £8, one caller.

Turn (£24): AJ9A still rainbow
I check, villain checks....hmm, OK - guess he doesn't have an Ace?

River (£24): AJ9AA

I bet £10. Villain makes it £30.

HERO?


My read is that he probably doesn't have an Ace after checking the turn. What's our play here?

Comments

  • Where did this guy call from? If he's first or second in he very well might have QQ or KK. Are you trying to raise him off of a chop here? Can't ever see getting called by worse.

    Bart
  • Dragon-AshDragon-Ash Posts: 203Subscriber
    Guy had limped in from MP2 or so. Middle-aged white guy. An unknown, didn't seem particularly good but didn't seem spewy either.

    I raised to £75 because a) I thought he sometimes might fold a Jack, and b) Zeebo's Theorem, I thought he'd call with literally any 9 or pocket pair. After he limped in I can't really put him on KK/QQ; it was a fairly passive table so limping in was guaranteed to see a flop 5-6 ways minimum. I don't put him on the Ace because of the turn check.
  • CrazyCBettorCrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    I think this is way too thin. He has to be playing poker for the first time to call you with anything less than a jack (or you have a reputation for being a crazy bluffer) and I don't think he is folding a jack for this amount. Also I like a bet on the turn to get him to fold a better jack or charge all the gutshots and open ended he called with on the flop.
  • Dragon-Ash said

    Guy had limped in from MP2 or so. Middle-aged white guy. An unknown, didn't seem particularly good but didn't seem spewy either.

    I raised to £75 because a) I thought he sometimes might fold a Jack, and b) Zeebo's Theorem, I thought he'd call with literally any 9 or pocket pair. After he limped in I can't really put him on KK/QQ; it was a fairly passive table so limping in was guaranteed to see a flop 5-6 ways minimum. I don't put him on the Ace because of the turn check.
    He's not raising with a 9 or any pocket pair after checking back the turn.

    Bart
  • Dragon-AshDragon-Ash Posts: 203Subscriber
    I have been working on finding spots to raise/fold more for value, and thought this was a good spot, but maybe not.

    Anyway, the guy tanked FOREVER, before sigh/calling and flipping over pocket Kings, which I never put him on in a million years.
  • MikeMike Posts: 371Member
    You contradict yourself... you say that he might fold a jack but wont even fold a lower FH. Doesnt really make sense. I dont think you can raise here. seems much to thin and you are just opening the door to be unknowlingly bluffed off your hand. He could shove a jack or something.
  • Dragon-Ash said

    I have been working on finding spots to raise/fold more for value, and thought this was a good spot, but maybe not.

    Anyway, the guy tanked FOREVER, before sigh/calling and flipping over pocket Kings, which I never put him on in a million years.
    If you are looking for a spot to raise-fold then it is with KK in your opponent's position.

    Bart
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Dragon-Ash said

    After he limped in I can't really put him on KK/QQ
    With recreational older players you can never rule this out. It happens a lot more than you think it would.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Dragon-Ash said
    I raised to £75 because a) I thought he sometimes might fold a Jack, ...
    Dragon-Ash said
    ... I thought he'd call with literally any 9 or pocket pair.
    That doesn't go together.

    So, what are you guys advocating instead of raising? (agree that it doesn't make sense)
    Do you prefer a call or a fold? We are basically calling for a chop only.
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Just fold. Not only will you not get called by worse, you most likely don't even have the best hand here.

    How do you know an A isn't in his range? Maybe he had one on the turn with a crappy kicker and decided to pot control with it. Then he had quads on the river and that took care of kicker issues.
  • shmedshmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    One way of thinking about this hand, in terms of relative hand strength: since your FH is based on board trips, you have the equivalent of 2nd pair (with no kicker considerations) here. Sure the case A is much less likely now, but when raised on the river, you need to consider it also. Given this,wWould you typically raise or call a 2nd pair on the board here to a river raise to this opponent? I think thinking about it this way makes it an easier fold.

    I think 3-betting is the worst option here, as the situation is so polarized that everything that beats you will call/raise and everything you beat will fold (unless you have a specific read -- but I can't see pairs tens and lower thinking they are good after you 3-bet). I can understand the call since you think A, KK, QQ is less likely due to his actions -- however I agree with Bart's point and they are almost never raising than worse.
  • coolfish7coolfish7 Posts: 29Subscriber, Professional
    Agreed with above. River has to be a fold. He always has a higher PP or the case A. Almost never a J b/c of check back turn and he's never raising river with it.
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