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2/5 AA bet sizing on river?

DrGambolDrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
V1 is a friendly black guy, early 30's, maybe late 20's. Very talkative. Limps a decent amount, but raising range is tight. Overvalues top pair at times.

V2 is the main villain. He is a 60-70 yo loose passive male. He has made some crazy bad preflop mistakes. On one hand, there were 2 limps and I raised to 7x otb and he called the BB with T2s. He flatted AA pre twice, including in multiway pots where he could have squeezed. He has cold called 3 bets multiple times without showdowns. Postflop, he is a bit sticky and will call down light. I have seen him call with overs or with absolutely nothing (98s on K72r with back door draws vs small cbet). He doesn't like to fold very often in general the vibe I get. He is also a pretty superstitious guy and has asked for the deck to be washed.

V3 is a newer player to the table and I haven't seen him at the casino before. He is a late 20's male. Seemed like a normal TAG. I think he played in the nightly tournament before coming to cash games. He had that typical young guy demeanor, where he paused and thought intently while shuffling chips.

Hero is mid 20's male (won't admit to late 20's yet). Have a hoody jacket on (hood is down). I've played with V1 before without major history. I've played with V2 before as well but completely forgot he was this loose. My image is that I'm a winning TAG. I've been pretty card dead but V1 and 3 are newer to the table. V2 has been at the table with me for 8 hours or so and has seen me be both nitty and lag depending on the time of day.

2/5 NL

V1 ($500) opens to $30 UTG. Hero ($880) raises to $90 with A A. V2 (covers table) calls in MP. V3 ($500) tank calls in SB. V1 calls.

Flop A T :heart: 2 (pot $360)

V3 checks, V1 checks, Hero checks, V2 bets $180, V3 folds, V1 folds, Hero calls

Turn 5 :heart: (pot $720)

Hero checks, V2 checks

River 9 (pot $720)

Hero has $610 behind

My question is should I be making a smaller bet or just jam?

I block so many Ax combos, yet this player is bad enough to cold call a lot of them, even weaker ones. I would not be shocked if he cold called A2s+ or A9o+, but maybe he calls tighter. If I jam river for just about pot, but as a huge live poker bet, will he tank fold a lot of these Ax combos? And if he has a set or two pair, will he not jam over top of my smaller bet anyway?

Does he actually have AJ/AQ/AK often enough to where jamming is better and he just can't get away from top pair with a strong kicker? I sensed he doesn't like folding in general, but I'm sure this changes when the pot gets this big and he's calling a huge bet on the river in a 3 bet pot where lots of people can assume I have AK or AA.

Is there any merit to leading the turn & river small to where he's all in by the river? As I'm typing this out, I think leading turn for $250 and jamming river seems like a decent plan.

Thoughts on river as played or any alternative lines?

Comments

  • AlexBAlexB Posts: 160Subscriber
    you described main villain as loose passive and someone who doesn't like to fold. Because of this, I don't like your check on the flop, sure, you have the board covered but this guy will call with many gutshots, middle pair, etc. Also as played I would definitely not let turn go check-check, especially after his flop bet.

    I don't think you can get too much more value on river, so I'd bet small and let him call down light. Maybe $250 or so.

    Anyhow having the turn checked through is a complete disaster. You could have bet $240 on the turn and shipped the river. If he has an ace he is never folding and folding his draws on river so it's too late to get value from those
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Not sure why we are checking the flop, but you were fortunate he bet out.

    Size the river around $250ish
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    What was your reasoning for checking the flop? none of the villains are loose aggressive and you don't seem to have any reads that checking this board would induce bluffs. why would we not want to get value from 10x or straight draws by value betting?
  • LownstarrLownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    I agree with a lot of what's above. I think your overall goal with a hand like this is to try to get all-in without an enormous bet on the river. $610 is an enormous bet for someone to call.

    While I understand your check on the flop given the lack of draws, I think I'd have fast played there with a flop bet and followed with a turn bet. Either someone has something they'll call with like a pair or they don't.

    As played, it looks like V2 might have tried to pick up the pot on the flop. The check back on the turn from him would lead me to bet small and see if I could get a crying call. The $250 mentioned by others doesn't seem bad. I might even size a bit lower to boost the chance of a call.
  • DrGambolDrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    With $360 in the pot, having such a lockdown hand (only gut shots have any significant equity), I think the flop is an automatic check. I have about $800 left in a $360 pot so I can bet turn and river all in pretty easily. The loose villain may bet if I check. And if he doesn't bet, then I can give the other villains a chance to spike a set or 2 pair. Against the v1 and v3, who are decent players, they are much more likely to stack off with Ax if I check the flop, as it reps KK-JJ. We are really only deep with one player who is bad anyway and may gladly stack off Ax regardless of my line. I absolutely think that it is worth the risk of checking to allow others to catch up on this type of board.


  • TyrithTyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    I'm not going to argue with the check; this hand is going to be hard to get value from whatever you do.

    Once the guy bets, I think this is another situation to make a min-check/raise here. If he's trying to pick up the pot, he doesn't seem like the guy kind of guy that's going to barrel. If we raise, it sounds like he'll usually continue with any Ace, and it gives us the betting lead. I think the C/R line is more likely to get called than calling the flop and donking the turn; people don't like to fold to min-check raises.

    If we flat the flop, I think we're forced to donk the turn, though. This guy is capable of giving us his entire stack with hands besides other sets, we just have to try. Having to ship $600 is sub-optimal, since it's such a large bet for live 2/5, so I think we need to bet $200 and then bet $400. Whatever we do seems ultra strong at this point.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited July 2014
    DrGambol wrote:
    I have about $800 left in a $360 pot so I can bet turn and river all in pretty easily.

    This is clearly not true as evidenced by your own HH. Value with SPR of 2 in 3 bet pots is usually best to spread out over 3 streets vs. described villains.
    Thanked by 3RDF Arenzano Lownstarr
  • DrGambolDrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Aesah wrote:
    DrGambol wrote:
    I have about $800 left in a $360 pot so I can bet turn and river all in pretty easily.

    This is clearly not true as evidenced by your own HH. Value with SPR of 2 in 3 bet pots is usually best to spread out over 3 streets vs. described villains.

    That is because he bet half pot. I could bet a different size if the flop checks through. I could bet $250 and $550. Or $225 and $575. It looks big when I shove $610 into $720 but a slight adjustment of betting 2/3rd pot would change that completely.

    If I had AK, I'd agree 3 small bets is way better than checking but I have the board so smashed that I think it's worth giving a free card. I mean, it's only somewhat difficult to get stacks in against one of the 3 players, and that player is also the one most likely to not pay attention or care to which line I take.

  • dannydeucesdannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    Lead flop. As played, 200-250 river bet.
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