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1/2 Underfull on river. Too thin to value bet?

JseeleyJseeley Posts: 48Member
Never seen villain in room, very trappy.
Best example is villain limps in mp.
Gets raised pre.
He calls and three to flop.
Flops comes A34.
He checks and gets bet into and gets it in on flop. He tables AA.

$350 effective.
Villain limps Utg
Hero limps UTG +2 with 22
5 players to flop
($10)
flops comes 982
villain checks, I lead for $10
villain and one other caller.
($40)
Turn is the A of hearts, bringing back door hearts.
Villain leads for 30
I raise to $100
other player folds and villain calls.
($240)
River is a 9 for a final board of 982A9 two hearts
Villain checks
Hero?

I think the river filled up his made hands and he is just going to fold his draws.
Is it possible to bet fold here or is the best line a check given history with villain?
What are we possibly getting called by that we have beat?

Comments

  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    You should definitely bet for value here and expect to get called by good two pairs and better. Given these stack sizes and this action, if you happen to lose it's just a poorly played (by the villain) cold deck . If you want to play conservatively, you could make a small bet and bet fold (i.e. bet $100, fold for the remaining $125ish) but I would be tempted to just go all-in myself to try to get maximum value from a 9, strangely played AK, or overpair to the 9.

    Although you have the worst possible full house, it seems extremely unlikely that you are up against 88, 99, AA, or 98 since all of those hands had many opportunities to get it in with you on a pretty coordinated board. Keep in mind that you already described an example where the villain got all of his money in with top set on a somewhat coordinated flop. Why wouldn't he do that here? If you lose, I think you almost always lose to A9 that chose not to shove on the turn.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Wait, what?!!
    He checks to you on the river and you don't think your hand is good ??
    There are so many worse hands that can call here. Just bet like $160 and watch him call with AJ or whatever. A draw isn't calling anyway, and yes his range does include draws, but we shouldn't NOT bet because we think he may have had a draw. Why would u even play 22 if you're not going to value bet a boat when checked to on the river? We make money when our opponents make mistakes -- give this guy a chance to make one.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Bet river all day. Don't see monsters under the bed! This is the easiest value bet ever.

    Also, raise turn slightly bigger, so you can get stacks in by the river.
  • JseeleyJseeley Posts: 48Member
    Villain is super tight. I don't see him floating on flop with a hand like AJ or AK. The only reason he got it in on previous hand is other two players drove the action.
  • Chicago IronChicago Iron Posts: 68Subscriber
    if villian has a wide limping range and will show up with 96+ then i'd say it's an easy value bet but those are the only hands i'd expect a call from that we beat for the most part.
  • JseeleyJseeley Posts: 48Member
    OminousCow said

    You should definitely bet for value here and expect to get called by good two pairs and better. Given these stack sizes and this action, if you happen to lose it's just a poorly played (by the villain) cold deck . If you want to play conservatively, you could make a small bet and bet fold (i.e. bet $100, fold for the remaining $125ish) but I would be tempted to just go all-in myself to try to get maximum value from a 9, strangely played AK, or overpair to the 9.

    Although you have the worst possible full house, it seems extremely unlikely that you are up against 88, 99, AA, or 98 since all of those hands had many opportunities to get it in with you on a pretty coordinated board. Keep in mind that you already described an example where the villain got all of his money in with top set on a somewhat coordinated flop. Why wouldn't he do that here? If you lose, I think you almost always lose to A9 that chose not to shove on the turn.
    He never has a bare 9 or an over pair to a nine on the river. I raised a tight player on the turn. It drives all those hands out. AK is bottom of range here, and i doubt he would call another bet.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    I'm with the other guys, this is a bet all day, and the open-shove is an interesting idea too. But I'm open to hearing why you think otherwise.

    While you have a better feel for this Villain than we do, I think I see people check/call this board fairly often with AK.

    You describe Villain as "trappy", not necessarily as a slow-player. Maybe you meant the latter, but you said the former, and I think there's a difference. Trappy players are baiting people into bluffing; slow-players are people who are letting someone else build the pot with a weaker made hand. It's a slight difference, but it is an important one. A trappy player is going to call off a lot lighter than a slow-player (who obviously has nutty hands).

    So if he's trappy, that suggests you should bomb this river. If he's a slow-player, you should bet-fold this river, like OminousCow has said.

    You know what hand I think he has a lot? A8. It's middle pair, top kicker on a somewhat coordinated flop against a player he apparently feels trapping is an appropriate strategy against. It then turns aces-up, and then he gets the bottom end of his two pair counterfeited. Sometimes people feel emotionally committed to these hands and they have a hard time giving them up. There are so few hands that beat you on the river that I think not betting here is a disaster. And if he's so reluctant to raise, I think you really can fold an under-full here on the river getting what will be something like 4:1 if he check-raises you.

    Side note: I don't think that it's necessarily true that he only got it in on that top set example because other people drove the action. If he's trappy, he wants them driving the action. It's not that he's afraid of putting money in, it's that he's afraid that betting out won't get as much money in as check/calling will - especially with the stack sizes in that situation.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Shoving the river seems pretty bad (unless you have reads on him other than the ones provided). You want to get called by strong Ax hands, possibly A8, and 9x combos (he doesn't have too many trip combos in his range after your turn raise), so bet around 100-140.
  • Philly DavePhilly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    So we have no idea what villains UTG limping range is?
    An unknown 1/2 player in what looks like a limpy game...
    Axs, pps including premiums given villain history, SCs I guess.
    I think it would be helpful to know which of the cards were hearts as we could eliminate some Ax suited combos from his range. His bet / call OTT is strong and mostly made hands. I guess it's possible JhTh and 6h9h are in his range (2 combos) which aren't calling
    Hands we beat
    A8 (maybe 9 combos)
    Perhaps AQ and AK (12 combos ea.)
    Hands in his likely range that beat us are
    AA (3 combos)
    99 (1 combo)
    88 (3 combos)
    89 (2 suited combos)
    A9 (6 combos)
    I am having a hard time seeing any 9x hands in villains lead calling range OTT. I mean maybe a K9 or whatever that thought we were bluffing the turn if he's really bad... possible.

    So I think there are a few more combos we beat if we think sometimes AK and AQ are in his range more if 9x is in there too (might be wishful thinking) and we could try to get value from non believing 9x hands and A8 but it's thin overall and I think we are getting looked up by better or shoved on a lot of the time. I'm actually not sure we are getting called frequently enough for the bet to be profitable unless he has naked Aces in his range and will call a river bet with it. How much will this villain call OTR with a pair of aces or two pair when the board pairs? I know these guys show up with the darnedest things sometimes.

    I disagree with the notion that just because we chose to limp 22 we are duty bound to bet when it hits regardless of villains range.

    I think I bet/fold around $120 but truthfully with a live read I could sometimes check behind.

    edit:/ Thinking about this more... from villains perspective if he even had A8 the river counterfeited him so even though a bigger A is a somewhat small part of our range the simple fact that his 2 pair was cunterfeited reduces somewhat the likelihood of him calling a large river bet. I think I need to know this villain is a class A drooler to value bet here.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I agree with most of what Phillly said. It is closer than it might seem at first glance, but I think villain will call with quite a few Ax combos. Hero can raise the turn with draws himself, so hero might be bluffing the river.

    Villain won't bluff you after you raise turn and bet river, so it should be an easy bet-fold.
  • Philly DavePhilly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    I agree with most of what Phillly said. It is closer than it might seem at first glance, but I think villain will call with quite a few Ax combos. Hero can raise the turn with draws himself, so hero might be bluffing the river.

    Villain won't bluff you after you raise turn and bet river, so it should be an easy bet-fold.
    Agree. It would be helpful to have more read on villain here such as his likely perception of Hero. If villain believes Hero will play draws aggressively we can get value from his bluff catching hands.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    Philly Dave said
    Thinking about this more... from villains perspective if he even had A8 the river counterfeited him so even though a bigger A is a somewhat small part of our range the simple fact that his 2 pair was cunterfeited reduces somewhat the likelihood of him calling a large river bet. I think I need to know this villain is a class A drooler to value bet here.
    As I stated earlier, I think this matters but not a great amount. What I think the counterfeited turned two-pair means is that this player is often emotionally-committed to his hand, but he recognizes that his hand has lost some value on the river, so he's less inclined to bet the river. These players often feel wronged about how the hand played out, and that they still have a great deal of showdown value. You get a lot of begrudging calls from these guys.

    Again, I go back to this player being "trappy", a label I've said I'm a bit skeptical about. How many people in the player pool do they see betting three streets with hands worse? So often people check behind on the river here; that's why value-betting is so profitable when we're in their position.

    Even though they're "trapping" earlier in the hand, aren't they often leading a better hand than ours on the river? I don't buy that they're checking A9 or 98 to us on the river, even if they are "trappy". If they are doing this, I wouldn't say they're "trappy" - I'd just say they're extremely passive; they're not even thinking about the hand enough to know that "trapping" is a way to get people to put in money when they're behind. And if they really are trapping, well, the trap has been set. It's time to spring it on us, and they haven't. I really do think we've got the best hand here very, very often, and I don't think betting the river is all that thin. It's thin enough to warrant a bet/fold, but it's not so thin that checking behind here is forgivable.
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