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Nitty fold or correct laydown?

HawkishHawkish Posts: 5Member
Wild 50c/$1 home game. LAG in seat 3 opens to $4. LAG in cutoff calls. I call on Button w/ KQs. Pot: $12.50

Flop: As, 9s, 3h
Seat 3 bets $12, Cutoff shoves for $50. I have approximately $100 behind and Seat 3 has approximately $70 behind.

I ended up folding - thinking that since my hand has the two best spades in the deck, the likelihood that either player is involved in this pot with a draw is very slim. I assumed that basically I'm up against made hands or big A's, and mucked it. Your thoughts?

Comments

  • RogerHardyRogerHardy Posts: 794Subscriber
    Unless I've got solid reads on both players, I think this is an easy fold. The only way for you to win is push all in and hope Seat 3 has the Ace and folds, and that CO was shoving with TJs or 78s, that's the only way I see you being ahead (I could see TJs pushing all in, because he's assuming the first better has an ace, and he assumes the board missed you). Assuming you get it all in knowing you would need to make your flush, its 1.9-1 against. There is 74.50 in the pot, you'd be putting 70 more of yours to to get seat 3's 70, so 70 more to get 144.50. Just about even. Excludes the fact that someone could have trips, or maybe A9, and make a full house.

    If it's heads up and someone made a big bet but not all, then you could entertain going all in with some fold equity if they have Ax.

    I don't know how good the players are in your home game. In mine, I tend not to make super thin plays because I know I'll be getting the best of it many times over during the course of the evening.

    Roger
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I'm rarely that precise about math in live poker. My philosophy is reads > math, which is a little ironic because I studied math at one point

    Anyway, an equity breakdown is spots like this. It depends on what the guy in seat 3 will do if you're both all in

    If you think seat 3 might have just been c-betting and will fold, or will fold top pair when there's heavy action, you're not quite getting the right odds to get it in against the cutoff's shove if he doesn't have worse flush draws in his range
    The pot is $12.5 pre + $12 cbet + $50 shove = $74.50
    If you shove and seat 3 folds, you have to put in $50 to win total pot of 74.5+50 = $124.50 which means that you'll need at least 40% equity to break even. You don't have 40% equity if the CO would only shove a made hand. But if he's known for going all-in with draws, then he could have a smaller flush draw which you have crushed. If even a small percentage of his range consists of smaller flush draws, then you want to get it in against him.

    If seat 3 is almost never folding, then
    the pot is $12.5 pre + $12 cbet + $50 shove + $70 more from seat 3 = $144.50a
    You would have to put in $82 to win total pot of $226.50, which means that you need about 36% equity for getting it in to be neutral EV

    I put in some random ranges that these players might have in a loose game, and it's probably slightly -EV though not terrible to get it in with both of them (because at least one of them should have a made hand, so you have no chance of getting it in with a dominating draw as you would HU against the CO)
  • HawkishHawkish Posts: 5Member
    I didn't have the math breakdown in my head at the table, but I pretty quickly folded, figuring that - as both of you indicated - I wasn't getting the right price. Results of the hand weren't really that important - wouldn't have made the flush anyhow, but my reads on their relative strength were spot on. Seat 3 had AJ (probably towards the middle-top of his range for opening preflop and getting it in on the flop, believe it or not) and CO had A3 (barf).
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    This is somewhat of a tangent, but this seems like a great spot to 3bet preflop. KQs plays really really well against two LAGs in position, especially if they have a tendency to never fold preflop (they will be continuing with a lot of dominated hands).
  • HawkishHawkish Posts: 5Member
    OminousCow said

    This is somewhat of a tangent, but this seems like a great spot to 3bet preflop. KQs plays really really well against two LAGs in position, especially if they have a tendency to never fold preflop (they will be continuing with a lot of dominated hands).
    Thought about that, actually. Only problem with that is that if I repop to something like $12 or $13 preflop, I guarantee they're both calling and we're now looking at a $50 pot with both of them basically having an SPR close to 1. I didn't want to bloat the pot up preflop with a hand like this, I'd rather do it with a more polarized range of hands. KQs seems almost middle of the road to me.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    I actually think that a hand like KQs plays really well with 1SPR; it's a hand that is very good at making top pair/overcards+draw, which is exactly what you want. You're actually in much worse shape with a polarized range when called than non-polarized since with your garbage you are usually going to have give up or bluff with little to no equity against guys who sound like they hate folding.
  • HawkishHawkish Posts: 5Member
    OminousCow said

    I actually think that a hand like KQs plays really well with 1SPR; it's a hand that is very good at making top pair/overcards+draw, which is exactly what you want. You're actually in much worse shape with a polarized range when called than non-polarized since with your garbage you are usually going to have give up or bluff with little to no equity against guys who sound like they hate folding.
    I get that...sure, if I hit the flop, then I'm going with the hand, but I hate the idea of bloating up a pot preflop only for the sake of closing my eyes and hoping I hit a flop so I can get it in and fade the bad beat. Isn't there also merit for keeping the pot reasonably small and allowing hand reading to grind the money from players to my right on down to me, rather than playing fit or fold on the flop?
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Hawkish said
    OminousCow said

    I actually think that a hand like KQs plays really well with 1SPR; it's a hand that is very good at making top pair/overcards+draw, which is exactly what you want. You're actually in much worse shape with a polarized range when called than non-polarized since with your garbage you are usually going to have give up or bluff with little to no equity against guys who sound like they hate folding.
    I get that...sure, if I hit the flop, then I'm going with the hand, but I hate the idea of bloating up a pot preflop only for the sake of closing my eyes and hoping I hit a flop so I can get it in and fade the bad beat. Isn't there also merit for keeping the pot reasonably small and allowing hand reading to grind the money from players to my right on down to me, rather than playing fit or fold on the flop?
    A lot of this is player dependent and you may be right against your player pool. However, I think that you may be overestimating the money you make by taking a flop here without the betting lead with stacks this shallow. It is hard to really extract when you only have an SPR of 3 without the initiative. That's the reason that good tournament players often choose to go with rampant pre-flop aggression rather than calling with medium strength hands.

    Also note that when you 3bet you are not playing fit or fold. Instead, you are forcing the LAGs to play fit or fold. Your strategy should not be to blindly continuation bet every time; you will want to check-give up and check to trap in addition to cbetting. Combine this with good bet sizing and you will be raking them over coals in no time.

    One last point is that this 3betting has the benefit of building an image that will get you paid way more often.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Hawkish said
    OminousCow said

    This is somewhat of a tangent, but this seems like a great spot to 3bet preflop. KQs plays really really well against two LAGs in position, especially if they have a tendency to never fold preflop (they will be continuing with a lot of dominated hands).
    Thought about that, actually. Only problem with that is that if I repop to something like $12 or $13 preflop, I guarantee they're both calling and we're now looking at a $50 pot with both of them basically having an SPR close to 1. I didn't want to bloat the pot up preflop with a hand like this, I'd rather do it with a more polarized range of hands. KQs seems almost middle of the road to me.
    Hawkish, I think you have it backwards here. If you expect the villain(s) to never fold to your 3bet, then you want to 3bet a unpolarized range for value, and KQs is the perfect example for this. OminousCow is spot on that they will call with many worse (dominated) hands. The low SPR is not a problem for you, since your hand is way ahead of their ranges AND you have position. You just ship every flop which gives you some equity, like overcards + backdoor draws, etc. They can't really do much.

    In contrast, you want to 3bet an polarized range consisting of very strong hands and air (preferrably with blockers), if you expect them to fold a decent amount. The reason is that hands like KQ don't play well against their stacking off range, and you would waste the potential of the hand if they will just fold most of their worse hands to a 3bet.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    While I think 3-betting preflop is interesting, I wouldn't have done it.

    We've got the button, first and foremost. I feel like I can build pots when I need to, and keeping the pot small also allows for me to double and maybe triple barrel some boards. I suspect you're the same way.

    As for the play on the flop, I think folding is correct. Having the nut flush draw here gives us OK equity, but it's not like having a nut flush draw with an overcard, or NFD + straight draw. You've just got 9 outs at best, and maybe even only 7 outs. I think it gets very interesting if the board comes As 10s 3h, or Js 9s 3h, though.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    StopHammertime said

    While I think 3-betting preflop is interesting, I wouldn't have done it.

    We've got the button, first and foremost. I feel like I can build pots when I need to, and keeping the pot small also allows for me to double and maybe triple barrel some boards. I suspect you're the same way.

    As for the play on the flop, I think folding is correct. Having the nut flush draw here gives us OK equity, but it's not like having a nut flush draw with an overcard, or NFD + straight draw. You've just got 9 outs at best, and maybe even only 7 outs. I think it gets very interesting if the board comes As 10s 3h, or Js 9s 3h, though.
    Agree with everything Hammer said.
  • JerseyJayJerseyJay Posts: 181Subscriber
    Kq is the nuts with a short stack. It is not medium strength, and plays very well. With position and two big connected cards you can put a ton of pressure on, hit or miss.
  • Chicago IronChicago Iron Posts: 68Subscriber
    3bet that shit.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I think both 3betting and flat-calling are fine pre.
    As played, you have to fold. It's close, but you are not getting the right price.
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