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A Case to Set Mine the Turn Card?

WilliamBehrensWilliamBehrens Posts: 5Member
edited April 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Last night I'm playing in a loose passive 10 handed 1/3 game. I'm in the small blind with two red 4's. 5 players limp in the field, I complete and the BB checks. We go to the flop 7 ways ($21 pot).

Flop is Ah, 8h, Jd.

I check, BB bets $15 and everyone calls around to me. Without giving it much thought, I fold. Much to my annoyance, the 4c hits on the turn. This got me to wondering if this was a rare opportunity to call the flop bet to hit a 2 outer.

When the flop is called around there is $111 in the pot and it's $15 for me to call, so I'm definitely not getting the immediate odds, but what about the implied odds? If I hit on the turn, I can get 1 big street of value from heart draws and 9T, and two streets from Ax/2pr hands.

So, considering the long shot odds of hitting on the turn, compounded with the number of river cards we have to dodge for our hand to hold up, is this a fold on the flop all day or is there a case to be made for calling?


  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    It's hard to get 20x or more from your investment OOP. If the game was playing such that you can really get that much money in reliably then you can call, but quite often people will put in small money ($15) really wide but fold too much for larger money ($100+).
    Thanked by 1RogerHardy
  • electricsheepelectricsheep Posts: 169Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    You didn't specify stack sizes. At any rate, you have about a 4% chance to hit your 2-outer on the turn and you need to make around 24 x $15 to make it about break even. Can you really make an additional $249 on the turn (360-111)? This is of course contingent on stack sizes and at least one of the villain to put 83 big blinds with a worst hand or a draw. I think most of the time, it's a long shot and you're burning money every time you call.

    Please someone correct me if the math is incorrect.

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    did you have the 4h in your hand? thats really important cuz if you dont that reduces your clean outs to only 1. I might peel if the rank of my card doesnt make any straights or flushes and I think another player would stack off and we are deep. as OC says like 20x the bet deeper

    side bene of actually hitting is the players will think you a total donkey.. and mega tilt may ensue

  • Philly DavePhilly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    Op has 2 red 4s.
  • DavidTuchmanDavidTuchman Posts: 791Pro
    Fold. Move on. Don't be results-oriented.

    OOP it's going to be very difficult for you to get max value not to mention you'll still actually lose this hand occasionally even after hitting your 4.

    The times I peel for my 2-outer is when the board is paired, I've got an over-pair to the board, I know my opponent has trips, my opponent can't fold trips AND we're super deep.

    Thanked by 2drk_nite30 eyedunno
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    chasing 2 outs to make a vulnerable 4th nuts hand seems not good
  • DavidTuchmanDavidTuchman Posts: 791Pro
    Aesah wrote:
    chasing 2 outs to make a vulnerable 4th nuts hand seems not good

    yup...This. If I'm drawing to huge longshot, It'd had better be for the nuts and I had better have a pretty good inkling that my opponent will have a very good 2nd best hand.
  • WilliamBehrensWilliamBehrens Posts: 5Member
    David, your 2 out draw example makes much more sense to peel than mine. Thank you.
  • eyedunnoeyedunno Posts: 215Subscriber
    Fold. Move on. Don't be results-oriented.


    Just tell yourself the villain who led on the flop had a set of 8's. :)
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