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AA on monotone board & bet sizing

LucasELucasE Posts: 167Member
Bet sizing is one of my weakest areas, any input here is appreciated.

1/3 game with a $500 max buy-in. Relevant villain's stack is $400 and I have him well covered. Villain is really old guy (80+), very passive, but willing to put decent money in with top pair or a draw. I hadn't seen him raise in the 3 hours he'd been there but I'd seen him bet pf and cbet.

UTG (Villain) limps $3
UTG+1 limps $3
HERO has AcAd and raises to $15
BTN calls $15
BB calls $15
Villain calls $12
UTG+1 folds

Flop: Qh 7h 2h (pot: $55 after rake)

Check to Hero who bets $45
Fold, fold
Villain calls $45

Turn: 3c (pot: $145)

Villain checks
Hero bets $100
Villain calls

River: 6s (pot: $345)

Villain checks
Hero bets $75

So as I said, bet sizing isn't my strong suit. Stacks at the river were $240. As played, I think villain's range is looking like {AhXx, QxXx, KhXx} and very rarely a small flush. My plan on the river is to get called by his Qx hands as well as his AhXx hands that backed into a pair. I plan to fold to a raise as I think this villain is absolutely never check/raising the river with anything worse than a made flush. My question, then, is how much do I bet looking to get called?

EDIT: And what is your thought process in deciding your bet size? This is what I'm never sure about and constantly second guessing.

Comments

  • garagamastergaragamaster Posts: 38Member
    I'd bet a little bit less on the flop, around $35 but that's not that big of a deal. The turn is fine, but on the river I think you should shove. His range consists on busted hearts and Qx, so there's no reason not to shove vs the average donk. If he was a good player you could advocate betting less.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    bet sizing pre, on the flop and on the turn looks perfectly fine to me. Depending on his tendencies, you might even bet slightly bigger on the turn, if you expect him to never fold hands like KhQx.
    Since you bet large on flop and turn, you are able to get your whole stack in, which is nice.

    On the river, it depends on how many better hands he has in his range, and how stationy he is. How does he perceive you, what's your image? Has he seen you bluff? Would you expect him to call a shove with KhQx type hands? And do you think he would check better hands again on the river?

    Since you say he has only few flushes in his range, I would strongly consider shoving. But it's hard to tell without more reads if that's overplaying your hand. If he will fold anything but better, I don't mind betting less. 75$ looks very small, though. I'd bet at least 140-170 into a pot of 345. So, that's basically a shove, and I don't think there's much room to fold then.
  • regfishregfish Posts: 34Member
    Hi. Looks good until river. On the river I would bet about 170 or 180. People sometimes get scared off if you say those words "all in". So that's why I bet a little less. A likely hand you would get looked up by would be a Q with a heart. When he has this hand the psychology of the average live player makes them call more here I think. They say to themselves "wow I missed all those outs to improve" (prob. not in those exact words though). So even though there hand here is just a bluff catcher they had such a good hand before the river and invested so much money to get there they just want to see your cards I think.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    With villain being an older guy I would pretty much rule out anything other than Qx or a Khigh flush draw.. This is a stereotype but most of these players will "protect" their made hands on wet board much earlier in the hand. The only hand I could see that he slowplays is the flopped nut flush. You dont have the Ah so that is possible.

    So given his range is Ax hh, Khx, Qxxh if he is a standard older passive player. What matters here is what is your spr on the river.. can you bet a decent amount and fold to a shove? I would say that most players of this type would lead with the nut flush on the river since they see so many players check behind.. if your spr is anywhere close to 1 then I think that when they check you have to bet...

    So you have 400 to start hand $15 pre, $45 flop, $100 turn = $240 left.. pot has $345 on the river.. so I would guess this is a situation where he probabaly has a busted K high flush or has a Q with a good flush card.. Ah, Kh, Jh... I would go ahead and bet around 175-200.. I like having villain with a little money left.. They are more likely to call when its not all in.. and they may rebuy whereas if they go bust they may get up and leave..

    If he shoves its kinda sick..

    edit: I am betting this big because if he busted his naked flush draw he isnt calling anyways, so I am specifically trying to get looked up by Qx...

    Wendy
  • LarryLidoLarryLido Posts: 52Member
    Betting less on the river then on the turn just seems wrong to me. PF, flop, and turn bets all seem fine to me. I would interpret your $75 bet on the river as a repping a very polarized range. Even a villain who has no idea what's in the pot will recognize the weirdness of a smaller river bet in comparison to your turn sizing. But the more I think about it the more I like it. But I still think that this guy will call off a $120+ bet just as easily as a $75 bet. Personally, I usually go for jams in spots like these so that the villain can throw a bunch of bluffs into my range.
  • LucasELucasE Posts: 167Member
    All - seems like my unhappiness with my river bet sizing was pretty accurate. I was trying to pick a size that villain was likely to call with his bare Qx hands. I know the bet is really, really suspicious because of the tiny size. That said, I was confident this villain was unlikely to pick up on that and even less likely to actually decide to bluff raise me because of it.

    That said, I do think a bigger bet is better. At least over $100 to not look super suspicious. Villain has $240 left, pot is $345, so I'm thinking anything in the range of $100 - $150 might be ideal? Getting raised would be sick as I think villain doesn't check three streets with a made flush and then get it in on the river almost ever, but I think it's even less likely that he's turning a missed draw into a bluff with a river c/shove, so I guess I'm bet/folding even getting crazy odds.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    LucasE said

    All - seems like my unhappiness with my river bet sizing was pretty accurate. I was trying to pick a size that villain was likely to call with his bare Qx hands. I know the bet is really, really suspicious because of the tiny size. That said, I was confident this villain was unlikely to pick up on that and even less likely to actually decide to bluff raise me because of it.

    That said, I do think a bigger bet is better. At least over $100 to not look super suspicious. Villain has $240 left, pot is $345, so I'm thinking anything in the range of $100 - $150 might be ideal? Getting raised would be sick as I think villain doesn't check three streets with a made flush and then get it in on the river almost ever, but I think it's even less likely that he's turning a missed draw into a bluff with a river c/shove, so I guess I'm bet/folding even getting crazy odds.
    Lucas

    I wouldnt fold if he shoves.. bozos all the time overvalue say AQ ..its sick but I think you cant fold getting like 9-1.. That said I really really believe that when he checks he doesnt have the flush.. I have seen older players or reg nitty players ch call flop ch call turn then lead river with the nuts.. when this guy checks again I think he really has a Q..

    Many of these players also love trying to catch you in a bluff too. If your bet is too small it looks like a value bet and I think they actually might fold!.. The bigger river bet looks more like a bluff because no one ever bets the river let alone bet big..

    Wendy
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Does anyone ever consider that the Hero is beat? Older gentleman limp calls $15. Then c/c flop for $45, then c/c the turn for $100. What is he calling with? Just a naked Ace? I think betting the river is not a good play at all unless you specifically place him on very narrow range. I see a lot of older players make mistakes wit TPTK, TPGK, but the flush is painfully obvious. I think we are overplaying our AA here against this villain.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Brudre21 said

    Does anyone ever consider that the Hero is beat? Older gentleman limp calls $15. Then c/c flop for $45, then c/c the turn for $100. What is he calling with? Just a naked Ace? I think betting the river is not a good play at all unless you specifically place him on very narrow range. I see a lot of older players make mistakes wit TPTK, TPGK, but the flush is painfully obvious. I think we are overplaying our AA here against this villain.
    So I can see someone check calling the flop to see a "safe" card if they have a flush.. but I dont see many player not shove the turn.. I mean is it possible he is that passive? I guess.. but most players I see will try to "protect" their made hands that are vulnerable.. Against most players the check call check call check line is generally the nut draw or something like one pair..

    Yes Hero could be value owning himself.. But that is not the point.. when you put villain on a range where you are going to have the better hand at least 50% of time when called its a good value bet.. so maybe the bet is a bit smaller.. say 100 bucks but its still a bet..

    Wendy
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Help me understand something... What is the Hero trying to accomplish by betting the river? Is this a spot where a worse hand is going to look him up? Is he trying to offer a blocking bet? Is this a thin value bet? Is he trying to get the villain to raise? Is he bluffing with the best hand here? What does the Hero do if the Villain comes over the top? Especially, an 80 yr-old player?

    I am certainly not saying the "pot is good enough", but only a better hand is going to call here. In my mind, if we think we are ahead of the Villain's range here because he has a hand like AQ or KKh then we should be betting more - say $150 - 250. (Perhaps this is what the Hero is asking) The Hero is showing plenty of strength, but the Villain is demonstrating an equal amount of resistance to fold.

    Keep in mind the Hero is behind QQ, 77, 22, and all flushes ( I am thinking of Ah Xh). He is ahead of a naked Ace of hearts or naked K of hearts, JJ-88. Will any of the hands that dont have a single heart call the river without the 4th heart showing up?
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Im trying analyze this from the perspective of long term profit in the situation. I appreciate any counter views!
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