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weird preflop spot

briandavisbriandavis Posts: 15Subscriber
Playing 2/5/10 plo at Winstar, Ok..only been at table for 15 min when this hand came up, My stack (1400) table seems to be pretty loose with only a couple players that ive played with before. I make it 40 utg with QQ99cc...we are 7 handed btw atm. 3 callers then the sb makes it 140. Bb calls. Straddler folds. I call. Field caller with a (650) stack ships in. Hes a spazz, not gonna give him the AA. Sb who made it 100 more originally calls with (2500) behind. Bb calls with everyone covered.....at this point I feel it is very likely that I have the best hand, maybe I run into KK some of the time and hard for me to put anyone on AA being rhe squeezer is a spazz and the two callers didnt reship.....I can either call the extra 500 and have 800 behind or move in the 800 more cause I think I have best hand a lot or just fold cause shit its gonna be 4 way all in with Queens lol....Thoughts please

Comments

  • jk3ajk3a Posts: 46Subscriber
    edited February 2014
    Not super confident on my multiway ev math here, but I'll take a shot.  I think it looks like this if we assume you jam and they both call and see a showdown.  <br><br>You'd have 28% equity in the 2600 main pot and 36% equity in the 2250 side pot.  For a total of $1538 in ev.  Which seems about right as you're slightly better than 25% 4 ways and slightly better than 33% 3 ways for $138 +ev after we deduct your stack.  <br><br>It looks like you'll flop 23% equity or better around 42% of the time.  I used 23% because that is the breakevenish number assuming you get 1 caller on the rest of your stack(prob most likely scenario).  <br><br>Let's say 58% of the time you fold postlop and lose the 650: -$377.  Of the 42% of the time you get the other 800 in lets guess you have say 35% equity in the main pot and 55% equity in the side.  35%(2600) + 55%(1600) = ($1790 - 800) * 42% = 416<br><br>416- 377 = $39.  Obviously I'm making a boatload of simplifying assumptions here to do a comparison as the real EV calc would be exhausting.  <br><br>Without doing any math at all, I would have guessed calling and pumping the rest in on the flops you don't hate is likely better unless you have a bunch of fold equity pf(I assume you don't).  <br><br>The postflop all in guesses I made of 35 and 55 could certainly be wrong and are super key to the calculation.  <br><br>Long story short, as long as you don't fold pf or stick it in on shitty flops, you win.      <br><br><br>ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.26 Professional)<br>33596 trials (randomized)<br><br><br>All-in Equity<br>chart?chxl=2%3A|Percent|0%3A|20%25%21AA|15%25%21AA|15%25%21AA|QQ99%24ss&chxt=y%2Cx%2Cx&chxp=2%2C50&chco=00aa00&chbh=a&chm=N%2A%2A%25%2C000000%2C0%2C%2D1%2C12%2C0%2Cr&chds=0%2C28&chxr=1%2C0%2C28&chs=400x155&cht=bhs&chd=t%3A27%2E9875%2C24%2E1552%2C24%2E0698%2C23%2E7876&chma=|10<br><br>How often do(es)<br>PLAYER_1 have hand vs. hand equity of at least 23% on the flop<br>42.2193% (14184)<br><br><br>If someone wants to delve into the postflop EV further you would try to weight the 4 scenarios.  You bet 800 and they both fold, you get it in with both, you get it in vs 1 other, it checks down.  I think what would generally be found is that calling and playing postflop is probably better. <br>
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