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3/5 NL - A10 bet sizing with trips.

SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
Table Dynamics: Soft, tight and passive table. I am the only aggressive player. Players are playing somewhat snug pre but are still playing poor post flop.

Villain: Older recreation player in his 60's to 70's.

Effctive stacks: $560.

One limp Utg+2, I raise to $20 with As10c MP+1, Villain calls on BU, SB calls and Limper calls.

Flop $83: 10d10c6d. Utg+2 checks, I bet $75, villain very quickly calls and everyone else folds.

Turn $233: 10d10c6d7d. I bet $120 and villain very quickly calls.

River $473: 10d10c6d7d8h. Hero? We have $345 behind.

Comments

  • Dragon-AshDragon-Ash Posts: 203Subscriber
    When villain calls 'quickly' on the flop, I would usually put him a draw, but he didn't raise the turn when the flush hit. Interesting.

    Any chance that he's "letting the aggressive young kid try to bluff me off the nuts"?

    Still, villain would call a small bet with a Ten, or he might bluff-catch with AA or KK, so we can't let this go check/check on the river. The board is ugly, so I'd bet small - maybe $150? - and happily fold to a ship, because on that board villain isn't re-raising with J-10 or Q-10. If he flips over 10-9 go punch a puppy.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I think betting the river is too thin.. I am really not sure what worse hand you can get called by. I don't think its likely he has an overpair and I doubt he would call. Also older folks just LOVE bluff catching, so its more likely you are value owning yourself. I would just check behind..

    Wendy
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Wendy,

    There are 12 combos of K10 Q10 J10. There are 12 combos of JJ and QQ. He could have slowplayed KK or AA pre as well. There are 3 combos of A10. There are 7 combos of 106 107 108 109 as he would not play the off suit hands imo. If he hit a flush on the turn wouldn't he take some time to think before calling? I never expect him to raise a flush on the turn but wouldn't he at least pause?

    We are OOP to him so we are first to act. Are you check folding? What if he bet's $100? If we are check calling shouldn't we bet as he will probably check back hands that would otherwise call a bet?

    Do you still think checking is best? If not, what would your sizing be?

    Salud,

    Skinnyb
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Skinny

    Many players would even check a flush on a paired board.. I think he will check any 9 any T and pretty much only bet a full house and maybe the nut flush..

    thats why I would check fold..

    Wendy
  • TomBayesTomBayes Posts: 81Subscriber
    Pretty gross spot. Seems like Villain has either a ten, a flush, a weirdly played overpair that he now thinks is a bluff-catcher, or somehow has a nine. The only nines I see him having are T9 (throw up in your mouth) or something like A9/K9/Q9/J9dd (depending on how weak of a flush he would chase).

    I'm torn between bet-fold and check-fold. If you check and he checks back a hand we beat, you'll feel icky leaving value on the table. If you bet and he calls and beats you, you'll feel icky value-owning yourself. But if you bet and he ships, you'll be getting laid a great price but are still almost assuredly dead.

    Honestly, I probably end up checking but I tend towards teh conservative low-variance choice in sticky spots, not always correctly.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Tom Bayes said

    Pretty gross spot. Seems like Villain has either a ten, a flush, a weirdly played overpair that he now thinks is a bluff-catcher, or somehow has a nine. The only nines I see him having are T9 (throw up in your mouth) or something like A9/K9/Q9/J9dd (depending on how weak of a flush he would chase).

    I'm torn between bet-fold and check-fold. If you check and he checks back a hand we beat, you'll feel icky leaving value on the table. If you bet and he calls and beats you, you'll feel icky value-owning yourself. But if you bet and he ships, you'll be getting laid a great price but are still almost assuredly dead.

    Honestly, I probably end up checking but I tend towards teh conservative low-variance choice in sticky spots, not always correctly.
    If he doesnt call your bet with a hand we beat .. we dont lose any value at all since he wouldnt call with those hands.. If he ONLY calls with hands we lose to and raises with much better we only lose money by betting.. So many players will go to showdown even with hands we beat that I think this is one of those spots where our hands strength although is very strong .. In relative terms is really only a bluff catcher.. Check fold and save money..

    Wendy
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Fwiw, I do not think villain is ever hero folding K10 Q10 or J10 to me in this spot because:

    1) The pot looks big
    2) He has trips
    3) I look like a young Mexican punk straight from the gutters of Juarez, Mexico.

    A weirdly played over pair is obviously more dicey.

    Do you guys agree with me on discounting flushes in this spot due to his quick turn timing? If he has a flush the majority will be Ace high flushes and wouldn't he pause on the turn when the strength of his hand dramatically changes? In game I put significant weight on his turn timing and weighted his ten combos much stronger because in that case his hand strength doesn't change from the flop so he doesn't have to think about anything. I watched him on the turn and he did not have a single thought before making a call.

    Do you guys think I am putting too much weight into that read?

    Your boi,

    Skinnybrown
  • TomBayesTomBayes Posts: 81Subscriber
    You were there and I wasn't, obviously, but I'm not as willing to discount him spiking a flush on the turn as you are. He might think he's a "Cagey Codger" who is going to trick the "Young Mexican punk straight from the gutters of Juarez" into bluffing/value-owning himself.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Skinny

    Its very possible he is on a draw.. then even more he wont call a bet on the river..But as Tom said it you were there and we were not. I have also seen older players call with very very strong hands because 1) they are just afraid of their own shadows 2) they love young punks betting and value owning themselves.

    Wendy
  • LarryLidoLarryLido Posts: 52Member
    Since this guy is a 70 yo rec player, I'd range him with 10A-107, JJ+, A2dd+, and any flush draw with SC 2 gappers or less. I'll do the combinatorics on this tomorrow unless someone beats me to it or convincingly disagrees with my range...
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    he will never put you to the test. make a blocking / value bet on the river of $100 and watch him look you up with JxJd. easiest fold ever if he raises. yeah, you flopped a monster, but the run out wasn't great, so you have be willing to give it up if he shows aggression. he is obv never folding any Tx, so hopefully he didn't backdoor into T9.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    For what it's worth I shipped, got called and was good. I think a blocking bet may be best tho. It is close either way but I think we have to bet here.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    if he calls the flop so quickly, I think you must bomb the turn! you really want to maximize value against a ten. Bet pot ir maybe even overbet so that you can shove the river. Of course, you might fold out flush draws ( not necessaarily, if he's really bad), but otherwise you loose too much value against all weaker tens.

    As played, bet river something like 70-90.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    whatsyourplay? said

    if he calls the flop so quickly, I think you must bomb the turn! you really want to maximize value against a ten. Bet pot ir maybe even overbet so that you can shove the river. Of course, you might fold out flush draws ( not necessaarily, if he's really bad), but otherwise you loose too much value against all weaker tens.

    As played, bet river something like 70-90.
    Interesting thoughts on the turn. I like it. Same for river sizing as played.
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