I'll be going over this hand more in depth in Vlog #1 (Later this week) to discuss my thought process, but wanted to get some feedback on the turn/River play.
This Villain has played relatively passively - He hasn't 3! at all in 4 hours at the table, and generally only bets with made hands post flop. I have played a few hands with him including where I bluffed the river with the nut flush blocker on a pretty scary board, and he called down with a rivered 2 pair after tanking for a bit.
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, Hero ($400, covers) opens to $12 from the CO with QsJs. Villain in the BB ($350ish) calls, UTG and +1 call. $42 after rake/drop
Flop Ad 10c 6s Checks through.
Turn is the 8c. BB leads for $20, UTG and +1 fold, and I elect to call with a double gutter. We are both deep enough to where we can play for stacks on the right river card. I considered raising here, but after the flop checkback in a multi-way pot, I cannot expect the Villain to have anything short of an Ace, and he definitely isn't folding to a normal sized bet. If I were to raise here, what kind of sizing would you recommend?
$82 The river is a Kc. The Villain grabs some chips as if to bet, but then checks.
Based upon the action, a backdoor flush is the last thing I expect him to show up with. How much are we betting, why, and what would we expect the Villain to call with for these sizings? I contemplated an overbet...