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River Overbet Value

100-200 in Budapest 100K ef. It's about $400.

500 straddle, 4calls, Hero calls with Q J from BB.

Flop: Q J 5 :s: (3K)

SB checks, Hero bets 2,5K, MP and HJ calls.

Turn:Q (10,5K)

Hero bets 5K, MP calls.

River:8 :s: (20,5K)

Hero overbets 30K V snapcalls with T 9 .

Flop lead or c/r? Turn sizing? River overbet or c/r?


  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    I think you played it fine. When your opponent calls that bet OTT he has a draw or a Q. So on the river his hand is polarized in calling.

    FDs are folding
    SDs are calling
    Qx is calling.
    Jx are folding (trips and straight now are visible)

    So a large bet is 100% warranted. While their are more Jx hands in his range you want to target the top half.

    If say the opponent was out of position on you then you might bet smaller on the river. In this case he has never made a play at the Q and checked when the straight came. So his hand is a condensed range in the middle.

    FDs are folding
    SDs he doesn't have one because he checked
    Qx he doesn't have one because he played passive
    Jx is very likely his target hand
    Thanked by 1Baggio95
  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    As a general rule, I think you make more by fast-playing your value hands from out of position.

    Lead flop. No reason to get tricky or potentially give free cards. Charge the draws, get value from other Qx.

    I might go just a little smaller on the turn maybe 3,5k-4k. It's a disaster if someone folds a straight draw or flush draw when they are drawing dead.

    On the river, Villain is likely either very strong (Qx+) or very weak (KT, whiffed 's). In game I would probably overbet, but as I think about it, this would be a great spot for a X/R as long as Villain isn't a total showdown monkey. He's going to bet off the top part of his range, and we give him a chance to bluff with the parts of his range that wouldn't have called a bet anyway. The only downside to the X/R is if he bets 12k-15k then folds one of the strong hands to a raise.
    Thanked by 1Baggio95
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 606Subscriber
    edited February 15
    Ok, just to confuse things further, here is a third opinion for you. I think Jx is the most likely holding for V that has a chance of paying you off. Yes, you could have trips or a straight, but you could also have a busted flush draw. I’d bet 75% pot to encourage him to look you up. He’s more likely to fold a J if you charge more than that IMHO. And 50% PSB looks too value heavy.

    I think flop and turn were fine.
    Thanked by 1Baggio95
  • Baggio95Baggio95 Posts: 19Subscriber
    Thanks for the replies!

    I agree with: "I might go just a little smaller on the turn maybe 3,5k-4k. It's a disaster if someone folds a straight draw or flush draw when they are drawing dead." The other V who folded OTT had T9 too....

    C/r is definitely an option OTR, but this V was quite solid, I think he is able to bet/fold for a smaller amount than my overbet.

    "I think Jx is the most likely holding for V". I'm not sure about that, I bet into 4 people OTF, close to a PSB, and there are two people behind him to act. Probably he just folds a hand like JT on the flop.
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