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Trouble with a set of 55's on monotone board

$5/$10 NLHE Cash Game at Commerce Casino

I am UTG+2 and the villain is the BB. This villain is a middle aged Asian guy capable of making loose calls. Earlier in this session, he open raised with As3s from MP, I 3-bet from the button with Jc8c. Flop was Q5Qr with one Spade. I bet 1/3 pot and he decided to call. He spiked an Ace on the turn, I continue barreling, he called. River was another 5. Final board was Q5QA5. I thought this is a bad card to bluff so I gave up. He showed down As3s.

For this hand, UTG+2 and MP limped. I raised to $60 from the HJ with 5h5s, BB Villain called, and MP called. Pot is 3-way and is $185.

Flop comes 7c5c2c. BB Villain checked, MP checked, I bet $120, BB called, MP folds.

Turn was Kd. Pot is now $435. BB checked. I thought very hard about checking because I was afraid of getting check-raised. But I thought my hand was too strong to give free cards so I bet $220. BB seems to Hollywood by swaying his body quite a bit, moving his lips almost as if he was salivating. Then he raised to $570. At this point, I thought he was either bluffing with Ace of Clubs or he has the flush. I called hoping for no more Clubs.

River was Qh. BB thought for a few moments and he went all-in. He has me covered and it would cost me $650.

What should I do?


  • QuantumSurferQuantumSurfer Posts: 142Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    I like betting the turn to continue getting value from FDs/P+FD. Calling his x/r with direct odds for the board pairing, I'd be hoping more to boat up on the river rather than to just dodge a fourth club. At the end we're getting 3.4:1 so it's kinda close. He completed from BB, so he has all AXcc, likely most KXcc, all the lower club broadways & further down to maybe J8cc, then some non face sc+gappers w/out a 7 or 5. That's maybe 27 combos of value. Throw in maybe 1 combo of 77 from the 3 left. We need him to have 8+ combos of bluffs. Given villain description & the line, I wouldn't fault an exploitative fold. I mostly play 5/5 though where river aggression skews towards nuts. Either way, it's close & you should feel good about betting turn for value/protection & calling the x/r because we improve often enough.
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I like the turn barrel as well. With another card to come, we're more likely to get value on a board like this when we take a bet bet check line rather than a bet check bet line.

    Turn call is fine as well. He can have the flush, but he can also have A , maybe K that pairs up on the turn. He also has 77 and 22 in his range, but those hands are basically a wash equity wise.

    As played, river is basically an odds question. If he has all flopped sets and just a few turn flush draws, we have to call. On the river, the pot is 2225, 650 to call. So we're getting close to 3.5 to 1 on a call, or we need to win roughly 23% of the time. If he has any kind of bluffing frequency, then we have to call. Otherwise, we may be able to make a tough fold. As far as range wise, this is definitely somewhere in the middle. We're going to have quite a few already made flushes, KK, Q Q× , 77, 55, A X× , K X× . Thing is, those last hands would be the worst to call with anyways as we would block his best bluffs. Since it is going to be somewhere in the middle, it can't be too wrong either way.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,127Administrator, LeadPro
    edited November 2018
    In all my years of playing and commentating I don't know if I have ever seen someone delay check-raise semi bluff the turn on a monotone board with just the one card A nut card. You will see guys go buck wild on the flop with that hand if they want to semi-bluff. This smells like a flush to me but you are getting a decent price. Bart
  • WillHungPokerWillHungPoker Posts: 89Subscriber
    edited November 2018
    @Bart He had the Ac8c for the nut flush. This is a good hand to remember for future situations similar to this one. But is betting the turn for value with my set the right play? I ran PIO solver and it is a clear cut value bet but it does recommend using a smaller sizing like 35% when I gave the solver options of 35%, 65%, and 125% pot sized bets.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,060Subscriber
    I think you played the hand fine. Must bet the turn for value from AcXx, and I like the smaller sizing. River is close, and can't be faulted either way.

    Note the Hollywooding though. I'm not saying you should have folded, but every single time I have the sense someone is Hollywooding, but I'm at the top of my range and call, I get shown the nuts. It seems like you picked up on that, but couldn't bring yourself to fold a strong hand. Ah, the vagaries of live poker...
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 598Subscriber
    I am wondering about the 2/3-pot bet on flop. I would have leaned towards checking or betting small on a monotone board for pot control. But is correct strategy to go for value from Ac/Kc? Wondering what is optimal? @KiLee
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 266Pro
    Superfly wrote: »
    I am wondering about the 2/3-pot bet on flop. I would have leaned towards checking or betting small on a monotone board for pot control. But is correct strategy to go for value from Ac/Kc? Wondering what is optimal? @KiLee
    Yes on monotone boards we generally use a small sizing with a wide range. We don't want to check a set here as we will be semi bluffing and betting many weaker hands for protection on this board.
  • WillHungPokerWillHungPoker Posts: 89Subscriber
    @superfly and @Kilee I agree that I would use smaller sizing as my default strategy. However, this villain has already called my 1/3 pot-sized c-bet earlier with A3s on QQ5 with one spade. I expect to have the best hand with my set of 5's very often here, even though it was a monotone flop. I am trying to exploit my villain for calling with too many hands against my c-bets.
    Thanked by 1KiLee
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