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Too thin/ Sick Bet fold?

Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
edited July 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5, 850 effective, I cover. Villain is an older Asian guy who seemed to play pretty tight. But I hadn't seem him show anything down. Don' think I have played with him before. Grinder type opens from early position to 20, Villain calls in the cut off. I three bet to 50 with pocket aces from the SB, and both of them call. Logic for the small three-bet is that, due to being card dead and not presented with any good squeeze spots this is my only three-bet in the last four hours. Don't want to loose my customers. They both call.

Flop comes out 4,6,8, rainbow. So I am first to act, and I just think of this as clear bet fold, no need to balance playing 2/5 (not for me anyway, given that I only play on the weekend). So I bet 75 into 150, grinder folds, and villain calls. So, right away I figure he probably has a smaller over pair, or maybe he is pealing with to two overs. I guess he could also have 7,5 for a flopped straight, but that seems unlikely because it was a three-bet pot. Also possible that he hit the board in some way, but I expect to hear from a set/two pair (and there shouldn't be many Two pair here because of the run out).

Turn is a nine, I don't believe it puts out any kind of back door flush draw out there. So, like not my favorite card, as nines are certainly part of his range. But still going with the bet fold plan, so I bet 175 into 300, and he calls again. Sizing probably could have been bigger, but again I am really value targeting Tens-Queens (or oddly played kings). I certainly could have (maybe should have) bet more here. He calls again.

River is a 7. So there is now a one liner out there to a five. The board is so crazy scary that I think I can get away with betting relatively large so I bet 350 into 650. He thinks for a second, and pushes all in for 545 (meaning it is 195 for me to call). So the pot is 1,545. 195 to call. So I am getting almost 8 to one. Am I ever good here, do I have the like 11% equity I need to call? Think anyone ever goes crazy with kings-queens here? Anyone ever find a folds here. Should I have bet less to leave my self an escape hatch?

So I call. Thoughts? Happy to hear about my many errors in this hand, from pre-flop three-bet sizing, to bet sizing on all streets (or even decision to bet a particular street).

Thanks a bunch.


  • nopairnopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    Your river bet... The universe of hands that has you beat + bluffs is far larger than anything that is calling you for value like JJ. Check. Let them make a suck bet for you to call when they have you beat or let them make a bluff when they don't.

    Second, more general comment than just this post, I know people usually post hands that have interesting/strange/unique opponent situations, but why the heck are you assuming that in a hand you have AA that one opponent have TT/JJ/QQ? The chances of two big pairs being dealt in a typical pot with a standard open and a _small_ raise called by two people are extremely small. It has to be more than ten times more likely this opponent has two cards between 5 and 9 (including the pairs) than having QQ/JJ/TT. Likewise A8, A6, A4 and A7 are more likely hands than the big pairs.

    Anyway, the point is, when we have an interesting hand, the chances are that our opponent has a totally unremarkable hand. Most hands, most of the time are played by people with mediocre holdings. Strong holdings are rare. Two players having strong holdings are very rare. They do happen, but your assumption should be that your opponent does _not_ have a strong hand in the same way you have a strong hand. (Similarly, if you raise with A♦T♦, your first assumption should be your opponent does _not_ have K♦Q♦.)
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    You make a reasonably point @nopair about the premium holdings being rare, but so are three-bet pots in a lot of live 2-5 games, and so is folding when facing a three-bet is common, so the range of hands is tighter. Also, as his typical of your responses to my posts anyway,I think probably you should try to be more polite in expressing your feedback. I know I have heard Bart talk about how he wants to keep this forms friendly, and I personally think you mean well, but your commentary about hands can be a bit biting, and I know I have seen other folks whose hands you have commented on make similar points.

    Anyway, couldn't your point about the river be made equally about the turn, and two some extent the flop? I mean, I think on all streets the largest universe is of hands that will fold, and then there is better and bluffs. But about the inducing a bluff by checking, that seems to be a worse play than mine, since I think only a real psycho player would bluff here, I mean I three bet, and put in relatively large bets on the turn and the river. That is a pretty horrible place to bluff, because it looks a lot like I am calling. Now I don't give my opponent credit for thinking that, but I also very rarely see a player bluff into a three-better who bet two streets.
  • nopairnopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    I can't imagine what you mean by "biting" or "polite" since I didn't even address you in the post besides asking you a question about your assumptions. If you want people to tell you that you played a hand well, then I'll avoid your posts. If you want to discuss how a hand rolled out, then expect other people to have different opinions than you do. Good luck.
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    Sorry, I just meant that the point about "why the heck are you assuming" could have been phrased in a more polite manner. That is really all I meant, and as I said, I find your feedback useful. Sorry if I was coming off as but-hurt.
  • nopairnopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    I don't know if I can manage more polite than "heck", but I'll try to use blander words.
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    Well, that is fine. But, as I said, it seemed like not the most unreasonable range assumption in a 3-bet pot.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,108Administrator, LeadPro
    Even though you have been playing tight, vs an open of $20 and a call, I am definitely three betting larger. probably to $70 at a minimum. This is a combination of value and being at a positional disadvantage.

    Besides that I may go a wee bit smaller on the turn, possibly $150 but that's not a huge thing.

    river I think is a simple check and evaluate, mostly check and fold. All hand that you beat are going to simply check back, hoping that you have AK, and at this level we dont have to worry about someone value betting worse AND or turning a hand like JJ into a bluff.

    As played, once the pot odds get this extreme I dont usually make folds here. Bart
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    Agree with Bart here 100%. Note when you raise small like that you aren't getting much to fold so more of his range is in there.
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    @bart and @fuzzypop, I think you are both right on. The 3-bet should have been larger. Think you guys and @nopair are probably right that the river bet was too thin.

    The reveal of course is that he had 56 of spades, which was a pair plus straight draw, which rivered a straight. Such is life, but I certainly could have saved myself almost 600 by not making that river bet which is probably not good more than 50% of the time. Thanks guys.
  • Rysher8Rysher8 Posts: 234Subscriber
    Agree with @fuzzpup on the 3bet size. Almost the entire range that called $20 is going to call for $30 more this deep. That goes double for speculative hands like small pocket pairs and suited connectors. Hands like KJ and AT might fold out, but otherwise we're up against a wide contingent of holdings. Agree with others that once we're called on the turn, river may be slightly too thin.
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