Hero lag opens Q9cc lj $40 (covers)
Tag grinder flats co ($2800)
BB tagish but occasional spazzy/aggro indian flats straddle ($2000)
3 ways $120
Jc 6s 4c
tag grinder flats co
bb indian checkraise $250
tag grinder calls
Jc 6s 4c Ts
bb bets $560 and has about $1100 back
Mostly concerned about nfd combos that tag behind often has here. The indian has been playing tight pretty much all night, but has the capability to spazz once in a while. Honestly he looks fairly nutted here though, since hes betting into both of us ott, so I think FE vs him is very low, but FE vs tag grinder is very high, and blowing him off nfd is a huge victory. Flatting is also an option but kinda sucks cuz then were really only drawing to 6 clean outs.
Btw, at this point grinder has about $2300
Did some math, game tree evaluatiin during the hand at this point and it came out to:
A. Call for $560, needing ~7:1 for straight outs only, (which we dont have vs BB, but in the off chance tag grinder folds behind ott or otr, or possibly has a worse flush, its probably more like only needing 5:1, which we barely have vs BB? In the best case scenario, with all outs live, we only need 2:1, which we have easy.
B. Jam over both, ($2300 eff). Grinder has to
fold his nfd combos. Bb indian probably calls 95%+?
Risk is then $1660 assuming grinder folds and bb calls, to win $2530, so need about 40% equity, but with 15 outs looking at more like 32%. So jamming seems slightly minus ev, unless this is one of those times bb indian is spazzing and has some
parts of his range that fold.
All options seemed kinda valid tbh. I kind of like A, because I think jamming is most likely minus ev when Bb is most likely not spazzing here and has the goods, therefore very low FE. Its not guaranteed grinder has nfd, as he can have some worse fd combos like T8cc 87cc 75cc 6xcc 75cc 75ss. Grinder can also find a fold here with some hands like possibly ambitious AJ or 75hh, 75dd after I call. So in reality, the range that grinder overcalls isnt 100% doomsday nfd, so its not that bad overall.
But it would suck running into nfd from grinder behind. Assuming we call, and grinder calls, pot will
be $2550 and with $1100 left from bb and $1760 from grinder behind, and if we hit our flush its probably all going in, and i think grinder may be good enough to fold worse flushes? So maybe B is actually more long run +ev to protect us from the potential RIO.
Or maybe since both options kind of seem meh we should go with C and nitfold oesd +fd? lulz