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Crush Live PLO No 36: Blind hand analysis from stones part 2

CLP_CraigCLP_Craig Posts: 777Administrator
Don continues the format of going through hands he has not seen yet and giving commentary on optimal plays from various perspectives, but without a co-host this time.


Episode posts at 2pm ET.


  • MasonIsAClownMasonIsAClown Posts: 102Subscriber, Professional
    I think there is an interesting discussion to be had about the randomness of hands chosen to raise by people who do not play PLO regularly. The Aq5x (I forget fourth card sorry) suited to queen hand for instance is a great example of people taking the creed that any four can win to heart a lot in this game and I think it's an underestimated factor in most PLO hand analysis involving non regulars. People inherently realize equities run close together in PLO and will often try to buy position or I guess take the lead in the hand when they see a hand that looks pretty. Also isolating that Jason guy was probably part of the reason this particular hand was raised even if it's not a great hand candidate to choose.

    I think in this way a lot of forum analysis gives opponents entirely too much credit. Bart tweeted once that we should never underestimate how bad the regs are. That is so true especially if we expand it to how weird the regs may operate in games they don't often play. When we throw the fact that they may be recreational into the mix, we can expect to see a lot of weird shit eventually, even if we haven't yet, from people who don't get to play PLO much. That definitely appeared to be the case in this game in general. This obviously should be accounted for a great deal while attempting to range people street by street.

    I think you did a fine job of ranging but I would love it if you could hone in on that discussion about people just being very random in general in PLO a bit more at some point.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited August 2016
    It's interesting, I actually learned a lot in the past ~month since I've been working a 9 to 5 again and kind of view poker differently. For the 4+ years that I played poker full-time, I treated everything in terms of EV. While that's still my main inclination, my recreational side is showing in spots where I just feel like "hey this will be fun I wonder what will happen" if I think it's like a very slightly -EV spot I may just say fuck it.

    So I'm kind of disappointed I didn't spend more time thinking about this topic while I was playing full-time; I always (wrongly) assumed people paid more attention to their hand rank. But in reality, someone may very well raise with AJ76r even though they just limped AKJ5ss last hand for so many different reasons that it's impossible to list them all. For a few, maybe he just saw a missed call from his dad, maybe he just remembered he hasn't paid rent yet, maybe the sports game he was watching cut to commercials, maybe a cute girl walked by and he wants to impress her, literally infinite possible reasons.

    So how is this useful for us? Basically, we just have to be careful not to draw too many conclusions from a single data point (e.g., "he opened with 65s from MP, so he'll definitely open all suited connectors in LP").
    Thanked by 1MasonIsAClown
  • FreeLunchFreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    The randomness of hands pre is just a fact - even games that are stable and have been around for a while can change completely moment to moment. Preflop the only exploit is that we keep better hand requirements. Postlop I dont think there is anything near the randomness in behavior as there is in hand selection pre. Sure there are people who will tilt or play a short stack with gamble but lock up a big stack, but for the most part, in my pool, players in PLO are more consistent and predictable than in NLH (even the same players). Post flop predictability trumps random pre.
    Thanked by 1MasonIsAClown
  • BradleyTBradleyT Posts: 621Subscriber, Professional
    edited August 2016
    Last night at $1-2-5 we got in 6 hands for one of the dealer's 30 minute shift. It was nothing but 5-6 way all in pre every hand. I would say that's a little bit non standard but those all in pre hands 4+ ways happen locally with way higher frequency than I've seen on any PLO streams or videos.

    Here the old T945 all in pre for $600 took it down with a flush.
  • chris_9090chris_9090 Posts: 101Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    H1 how would you play flop and turn in Jasons spot if you had a dry overpair (AAxx,KKxx) and what sizings .OTF we have SPR of 6 which i find very difficult to play oop with these kind of hands.
    H6 would u ever consider ,given flop action, turning Rich's Hand vs a loose's player btn stab into a bluff since we block all flopped boats,AQ+we have backdoor potential, and if yes against what kind of opponents ?
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    H1 it depends on your opposition, vs. better players I'd be inclined to check. Against players who are more likely to play straightforward and not turn 1pair hands into a bluff, you can bet for protection/value here.

    H6 I'm generally not interested in trying to bluff people off trips+ which is typically going to be their range for betting multiway here. With the right image and against the right player type who won't continue without the absolute nuts it is definitely possible here.
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