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$3/5 with AA Is this value line too thin?

CruelUltimatumCruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
Saturday night, $3/$5 game

Villain in the hand is an older guy, maybe in his 60s, has $400. Hero covers.

Hero has AhAd UTG, raises to $25, old man calls in MP, everyone else folds.

Flop ($55):
KQJr

I'm going to proceed cautiously in this hand, and if he raises, I'm done with the hand. I think I can get worse Kx or Tx hands to call, and then re-evaluate on later streets.

Hero bets $35, villain calls.

Turn: ($125)
offsuit 3, completing the rainbow

Hero bets $75, villain thinks for a while and calls.

River: ($275)
6

Hero bets $105

I love love love betting for value, but is this too thin?

Comments

  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    this spot seems to nag me as well. vs a standard nitty old guy, its hard to come up with worse hands that will call a bet on the river, except maybe AK (i think a lot of old man coffees are folding 1 pair to a 3rd barrel on this board), and KT. QT/JT are almost for sure folding, and all 2 pair hands are calling.

    does the villian have any or all suited Kx in his range? that would increase the combos of hands that he might be able to call you with...

    i'm leaning towards check/folding the river. what hands is he gonna turn into a bluff? he has showdown value with whatever he holds.
  • zmoney11zmoney11 Posts: 28Member
    I think there is some value, but it is really thin. I think if you went a smaller bet like 60. So giving that revere pot odds on the river. They see the pot odds and they almost have to call. I feel this bet might make it profitable. Tthe bigger bet will get called by better hands (2pair plus). But if you bet really small you might get looked up by k10, q10 j10 10s hand etc. I know I have done these type of bets against similar competition and they have worked.
  • inflection_pointinflection_point Posts: 40Subscriber
    what range do you put villain on? Also, given the fact that he has position on you, if you had 2 pair+ don't you think he would raise flop/turn with possible straight draws out there? You really haven't given us any info on what you think this older guy's playing style is....that's the most important aspect here....is he capable of slowplaying? Are you new to the table? Does this guy hand read at ALL? Having no other information from you to go on, I'm going to make a couple of assumptions....1) old guy implies fairly straightforward play 2) old guy also hates to get sucked out on and will not wait to put in raise all the way to river except with super strong hand like the impervious nuts...in this case A-10.

    Most play at $5 blind level and below is really loose passive preflop, and tight aggressive post flop from vast majority of player pool. Pretty fit or fold. Old guys as a stereotype tend to fit this mold. So, the overwhelming majority of his range here is 1 pair hands with an A or 10 in them...if villain puts you on A-K or frankly any hand with an A in it and he has a hand like say 9-10, he will nearly 100% of the time raise turn. So I think this is a clear bet-fold line on river.

    However, if you know more info about villain and my assumptions are wrong, that can drastically change the hand range he could be showing up with here.
  • CruelUltimatumCruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
    I should have mentioned that in the original post. I had been playing with him for less than 20 minutes, so I didn't see anything of note that would have given me anything to put him on a range.
  • TDFTDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    cbet $40, bet bigger on the turn, shove river.
  • TDF said

    cbet $40, bet bigger on the turn, shove river.
    Anything but this.

    I like your line, OP.
  • Why would this be too thin? I'm you're posting because he called down with QJ or something but you're definitely getting value from AK specifically here. Agree with folding to any aggression from him tho. If you think it's possible he could have KT or K9 suited then you could bet really small on the river to get calls from those i guess. But I like you're line overall
  • CruelUltimatumCruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
    pokerja3 said

    Why would this be too thin? I'm you're posting because he called down with QJ or something but you're definitely getting value from AK specifically here. Agree with folding to any aggression from him tho. If you think it's possible he could have KT or K9 suited then you could bet really small on the river to get calls from those i guess. But I like you're line overall
    Pssh. What he had doesn't matter. If I'm lost in the hand as the hand is going on, then I'm going to post about it. If he had AK or QJ or a set, I'd be posting this.

    Results:

    Villain said "nice hand," called river bet, I showed AA, he showed KT, and I won a nice little pot, but I was wondering if I was just running good to run into the bottom of his range there and that more often than not, my line is going to cost me money in the long run.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    CruelUltimatum said
    pokerja3 said

    Why would this be too thin? I'm you're posting because he called down with QJ or something but you're definitely getting value from AK specifically here. Agree with folding to any aggression from him tho. If you think it's possible he could have KT or K9 suited then you could bet really small on the river to get calls from those i guess. But I like you're line overall
    Pssh. What he had doesn't matter. If I'm lost in the hand as the hand is going on, then I'm going to post about it. If he had AK or QJ or a set, I'd be posting this.

    Results:

    Villain said "nice hand," called river bet, I showed AA, he showed KT, and I won a nice little pot, but I was wondering if I was just running good to run into the bottom of his range there and that more often than not, my line is going to cost me money in the long run.
    I think it's a bit too thin. In my experience OMC types are super passive, even with the effective nuts, because they think that "these young players" are all super aggressive and going to bet for them. They don't care about things like missed value when you check it back, etc. This is at least my experience. Nitty old men are often not calling with unsuited broadways either, so I am suprised that he showed up with K10. I think that's the absolute bottom of his range in this spot, and would expect to see KQs, KJs, and QJs a TON of the time, along with sets and straights.

    For this reason I STRONGLY disagree with TDF's line. I can't tell you how many times I've value owned myself against this type of player and after he flips over the effective nuts heard him say..."I didn't need to raise...he was doing it for me!". The bet, bet, shove line is burning money against OMC. I like bet, bet, check back, or bet, check back, bet as optimal lines.
  • LucasELucasE Posts: 167Member
    CruelUltimatum said
    pokerja3 said

    Why would this be too thin? I'm you're posting because he called down with QJ or something but you're definitely getting value from AK specifically here. Agree with folding to any aggression from him tho. If you think it's possible he could have KT or K9 suited then you could bet really small on the river to get calls from those i guess. But I like you're line overall
    Pssh. What he had doesn't matter. If I'm lost in the hand as the hand is going on, then I'm going to post about it. If he had AK or QJ or a set, I'd be posting this.

    Results:

    Villain said "nice hand," called river bet, I showed AA, he showed KT, and I won a nice little pot, but I was wondering if I was just running good to run into the bottom of his range there and that more often than not, my line is going to cost me money in the long run.
    I think you're going to run into bottom of villain's range a ton when you check back the river because villain will have let you know earlier in the hand when he has the top of his range - unless you have the most passive OMC as villain who will ONLY raise when he has AT I think you're going to face aggression from all of his two pair hands at some point. This seems like a really good spot to go for one more small value bet on the river to get looked up by {AK,KT,QT,JT,Kx}. Several of the hands in that range are pretty unlikely to call, but I think you have to value own yourself in this spot on occasion and can't feel bad about doing so.
  • BigOwlBigOwl Posts: 80Member
    Agree completely with Lucas here. He will have a Kx hands more than enough times to make this a value bet. And I think I like your bet sizing. I may have gone slightly larger on flop. Ranges are Inelastic on this kind of flop. They are either folding, calling, or raising, no matter what size your bet is,so I go for a little extra value against hands like KT QT AK etc. when they miss the bottom ranges of those hands will fold river, so a little extra up front is good.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,109Administrator, LeadPro
    I discussed this hand on the show FWIW

    Bart
  • BigOwlBigOwl Posts: 80Member
    Bart said

    I discussed this hand on the show FWIW

    Bart
    which show?
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,109Administrator, LeadPro
    Today's show.

    Bart
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