1/2 $300 max NL
Villain ($300) 30's white guy. Seems like a fishy player. I haven't seen a ton of hands he's played (Only at the table a little and the NCAA was kind of distracting
) Seems pretty loose/passive pre and hasn't raised a ton. Passive post from what I've seen. An orbit before he limp/called a raise to $19 from a $100 stack with A4dd, check/called an overbet when the flop came 239 with 1 diamond. Turn was an ace and it went check check. River was an offsuit 4 and villain bet like 1/3 pot and was good against Kings or something like that.
Hero ($500) Should have a pretty good image. Flopped top set Jacks and got it with a short stack who flopped middle pair and spazzed out. I also 3 bet AK, got called by a short stack and won with ace high (he didn't show). No history with Villain and haven't really shown any bluffs, so he has no reason to think I'm FOS.
Villain (UTG) raises to $10
Hero (MP) 3s 3d calls $10
everyone else folds
FLOP: Jh 9h 3d
Villain checks, hero bets $15, villain calls
Turn: Jh 9h 3d 8d
Villain checks, hero bets $35, villain instantly check raises to $135
Villain is kind of staring at me a little bit, but doesn't seem nervous or really worried.
I guess the post is more about what kind of range you would assign to villain, and what kind of hands would you call with. I was discussing with a friend and he thought this was AA-QQ or AJ a lot of the time, but I think this is much fewer overpairs or 1 pair hands and more skewed towards either a set, weird straight or some kind of weird turn bluff attempt. I would assume if I'm calling bottom set here I'm calling 98 if I had that. The only difference is the set has more equity vs a straight and kills some flush outs if he had that, but if I'm ahead with 33 I'm ahead with 98.
I almost never see loose/passive players take this line with an overpair. IMO he either has a hand that he thinks is a massive monster (2 pair+) or he's trying to bluff, which probably would mean he picked up turn equity. Most of the time if guys were going to bluff a front door flush draw they'd check/raise the flop or just bet.
I really think a guy with AA-QQ or AJ here either just bets the flop or MAYBE check/raises the flop. LP fish are scared of guys hitting 2 pair or w/e so he's not going to c/c AA and risk getting sucked out. If he did, he's not going to check/raise a really bad card (QT comes in, lots of 2 pairs come in etc) because he knows he would just check back 1 pair hands a lot on the turn, so he can't be sure I'm going to bet.
He seems relatively passive pre so I don't think he's opening J8s, probably not J9s. Would he open QTs? I wouldn't think so, but I suppose it could be possible. AK/AQ/KQdd I guess are possible, but of those 3 combinations I think he doesn't always c/c the flop, and I think most villains would just either bet the turn or check/call. We can maybe assign one combo of those IMO. He's not raising suited connectors in EP.
He could easily have JJ/99 although I think he'd check/raise the flop a lot. Heads up though I could see him maybe trying to slowplay I guess. You'd expect him not to check the turn but who knows. 88 is definitely possible as well. I don't think he has 2 pair here ever.
Given that it's 1/2 and he's bad we should also factor in some degree of spazz to his range where maybe he is making a weird play with AA or total air some % of the time.
Just curious what you think of my range analysis, and whether you'd ever consider folding bottom set (or 98) in this spot. Is this a snap shove back? Tank shove back? Sigh shove back? Just curious?
Just for full disclosure if villain had bet flop or bet turn I would never consider folding. I just almost never see this line at 1/2, especially from what seems like a passive player.