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Stuck in a Hand // Strange River card

kdogmckdogmc Posts: 100Subscriber
I played this hand like s***. Talk about the FOG. Effective stacks 735

I complete in the in the big blind with 9/10o. Straddle, mid pos, late position call.

The Villain is a young, loud, and buzzed. But he has been showing down some good hands. Pushing people around at will.

Flop 478 with two hearts. i have none in my hand. I check, check, check, late position bets 40.
I call, straddle folds, mid position check raises 140. Late position calls, I call.

380 in the pot.
Turn a 10. He bets 300.
I am getting 2 to one and now against his range, two pairs, sets, 56. Am I right about this? I do not put him on any draws but I guess this is in his range.
I am putting him on 2 pair. 87. He is aggressive so I really feel he'd bet sets.
I suck at stove.

I call.
River 9
Its my action and he says check. I've learned he does this every time he really wants to check. So I shove.

I hate that I got myself into a calling situation here. The absolute worst. Please discuss.

Comments

  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    fold pre, fold on the flop, fold on the turn.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    What happened to LP on the turn? Did he call the 300? I assume that he folded and it is now on you? Did the hearts brick out? Do we have a heart in our hand?

    The turn is a fold all day (and as whats? said, pre and flop are also both folds)

    How do you specifically put him on one hand after the range analysis you did? It's always easy to pick one hand that we beat out of a range of a ton of hands that includes combo draws/sets/2p+/overs. If you put him on exactly 87, we have ~35% equity and the pot is 680, 300 for us to call. We need 44% to make this immediately profitable. Fold.
  • bobo1384bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    I want to preface the rest of this by saying that I would fold on the turn.

    Wackabrew, the 44% number you have come up with is incorrect. When the pot odds are 2-1 we need to win 1 in 3 times, or 33%, to break even. When the odds are greater than 2-1, in this case its 2.23-1, we need less than 33% to break even, in the case of the hand above we need around 31% equity. You are dividing what we need to call by the pot, and that number doesn't give us equity needed to call. In the case of this hand, where our pot odds on the turn is 2.2-1, you take the 2.2, add 1 to it making it 3.2, then divide 1 by 3.2 to get our equity needed to break even which is about 31%. I find easier to remember the following: 4-1 pot odds needs 20% equity to call, 3-1 needs 25%. 2-1 needs 33%. 1.5-1 needs 40%. so 2.2 would be a couple percentage points below 33%.

    I'm not sure what range you are giving villain to get 35% equity. I think that is an optimistic number
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    bobo1384 said

    I want to preface the rest of this by saying that I would fold on the turn.

    Wackabrew, the 44% number you have come up with is incorrect. When the pot odds are 2-1 we need to win 1 in 3 times, or 33%, to break even. When the odds are greater than 2-1, in this case its 2.23-1, we need less than 33% to break even, in the case of the hand above we need around 31% equity. You are dividing what we need to call by the pot, and that number doesn't give us equity needed to call. In the case of this hand, where our pot odds on the turn is 2.2-1, you take the 2.2, add 1 to it making it 3.2, then divide 1 by 3.2 to get our equity needed to break even which is about 31%. I find easier to remember the following: 4-1 pot odds needs 20% equity to call, 3-1 needs 25%. 2-1 needs 33%. 1.5-1 needs 40%. so 2.2 would be a couple percentage points below 33%.

    I'm not sure what range you are giving villain to get 35% equity. I think that is an optimistic number
    Whoops! I was rushing around yesterday. Thanks for correcting the math. You are correct.

    The "range" that I gave villian was exactly 87 (as noted in the OP). I also think that 35% equity is optimistic, as villian can have much more than just flopped top two
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Why are we calling a player who is check raising four people and someone else who just flats the c\r? Can we ever be good here?
  • Fold on every street. BTW, post the level of your game next time, effective stacks, and make the action easier to read. Hand is just a train wreck overall.
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