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When not to bet the turn in position, then I tried it and villain overbet river

UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
Paraphrased transcript of me discussing a hand my friend played with the same villain:
Friend: "Good aggro tournament player who doesn't play cash as much made it $35 UTG+1. Guy calls in between. I call with 56ss. Flop Ac 4s 9s. He bets $75, guy in the middle folds, I called. Turn was an Ad, and he checked. So of course I bet."

Me (interrupting): "Don't bet"

Him: "Why not?"

Me: If he was bluffing, he would probably keep betting to keep his story of having a big A consistent and try to get you to fold a pair or weak A. And tournament plays are way more pot controlly than cash players, so he could even be checking an A that isn't AK/AQ there. I doubt he's ever checking to c/f."

Him: "Anyway, let me finish the hand. So I bet $200, which I would if I had an A. and he called. And the river bricked off, and I bet $500, and he snapped with ATss. I could never put him on that."

Me: "I think I would have played it similarly if I were him. He didn't want to bet and get blown off his redraw when his A was only a T kicker. Besides, if you really did have an A on that turn, but it was a weak A, would you seriously bet there?"

Him: "Duh. There's a flush draw out there. And besides, it's not just top pair. It's trip aces."

Me: "I might even check if I had an A for pot control and to not get blown off the best hand. I've played tourney players more than you, and they're going to C/C with something like KK but C/R draws and big aces, so betting there is a disaster. Just go for future value on the river if he doesn't have an A when you actually have an A. Besides, why does it matter that you have trip aces? Isn't it effectively the same thing as if the turn were a blank and you had top pair with a weak kicker?"

Maybe I've officially surpassed him in high level thinking ^_^


And anyway, onto the hand I played against the same villain:
5/10 ~$1700 effective
I'm a random unknown girl to this villain and have been on the tighter side. Haven't done anything too sophisticated in this session, so he's likely to think that I'm worse than I actually am.

One limper in EP
Villain raises to $45 from MP
Hero calls OTB with KcJc
BB calls
Limper folds

Flop ($150) Kd 8c 4h
BB checks
Villain bets $75
Hero calls
BB folds

Turn ($300) Ks
Villain checks
Hero checks back for pot control/future value purposes described in the background hand. Just as I would check back KJ here sometimes if the turn was a blank against competent aggro competition, I'm doing it because the K is effectively a blank, even though it gives me trips.

River Tx
Villain bets $410

Now, I haven't played with this villain much, so maybe he thinks I would never check back the turn with a K and is now bluffing me because he thinks I'm weak and this size bet will fold out 100% of my range. Or maybe he had TT and ran into a full house and is trying to maximize value (or was going for a turn C/R with 88). Thoughts about this river?
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Comments

  • bobo1384bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    I don't think there are worse Kx in his range, and if there were I would think K9s would be the worst and there can only be 1 combo of that. AA/QQ could be possible up until the river, but I doubt QQ would be turned into a bluff. When you described your friends hand, he check-called the river with trip aces/ten kicker. Here he overbets the river. If he's gonna check/call AT I doubt he is going to overbet AA. I also think he doesn't have K9 or worse either.

    How many bluffs can we really give this guy here? I don't think many. Looking at the hand, I would have checked the turn with the intention of bet/calling the river, but the overbet spooked me. I think its a fold.
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    bobo1384 said

    I don't think there are worse Kx in his range, and if there were I would think K9s would be the worst and there can only be 1 combo of that. AA/QQ could be possible up until the river, but I doubt QQ would be turned into a bluff. When you described your friends hand, he check-called the river with trip aces/ten kicker. Here he overbets the river. If he's gonna check/call AT I doubt he is going to overbet AA. I also think he doesn't have K9 or worse either.

    How many bluffs can we really give this guy here? I don't think many. Looking at the hand, I would have checked the turn with the intention of bet/calling the river, but the overbet spooked me. I think its a fold.
    That's what I thought, but
    If he's a thinking player (which he is), then he would be sizing his value bets based on what he thinks his opponent can call.
    My hand looks weak for checking the turn. So why would he be value betting huge against a perceived weak range?

    If this were a standard 2/5 opponent, I would have just bet the turn and folded to a c/r or if he bet the river. But I decided to check because I thought it would be hard to get 3 streets from worse against this guy, and he decides to overbet this river...
  • bobo1384bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    What hand do you think he is overbetting the river with that you beat?

    My impression is that he's not betting what he thinks you will call but he's betting the strength of his hand. Surly, he's not overbetting the river against an unknown to try and get them to fold a king. Is it common for people to overbet the river like this to bluff unknowns off of pocket pair type hands or even A high?
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    The point was that it doesn't look like I have a K, or a hand big enough to call a big bet. So my first impression was that I had a bluff catcher. But my second thought was wondering why he would value bet big if my hand looked weak. That made it less obvious of a fold.
  • BigOwlBigOwl Posts: 80Member
    If you are checking back turn I think you force yourself to call river. He may have been checking turn to c/r, and is now trying to make his money on river, but equal chance he checked river because he didn't have a king. I can't make any sense of him checking this turn with a value hand, much better to go for bet bet if he thinks you have a king he is ahead of.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    A potential reason that he would bet big on the river is that he thinks most of your river calling range is Kings that will call a big bet (and he has KQ+). Or on the flip side, he could be using a weird sizing with a depolarized range to try to induce light calls from hands < a king (which is what your hand looks a lot like).

    Unfortunately this is a really villain dependent spot. I think that most often this bet is a value bet and that when it is a value bet, it will frequently be from a value betting range that can beat KJ. However, there are definitely players that will play hands worse than KJ for value this way or bluff here.

    Icky spot.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Interesting spot, Claire.

    I agree with Ominous that this spot is very read-dependent. If villain is good, it's kind of a guessing game.

    However, I think if he doesn't know you, he should really expect you to have a decent king like never. The reason is that almost everybody at these levels would bet trip kings in your position on the turn. If he can hand read, he will mostly put you on some medium strength hand with showdown value, e.g.8x, 99-JJ, etc.
    For this reason, I do think villain could either valuebet worse hands (like AA, QQ-JJ, Tx) or try to bluff you off your hand.

    That's why it basically comes down how villain perceives you, and what he wants you to do. If you don't have any substantial reads, we can conclude that he probably doesn't know much about you either, so we should work with what an thinking player expects an average unknown opponent to do in this spot. Based on this, I would probably call here. My thinking is that (1) his value range is pretty narrow, and (2) the likelihood that an unknown average player would call in your spot with the range which he assigns you is pretty low.

    You need to be good 37% of the time, and I'd estimate to be good more often than that. If I am beat here, I'd expect to see TT here often.
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Yeah, I paid off. It was NOT the "But I have trip K's. I HAVE to call" reasoning.

    I thought his sizing was good for scaring a non-leveling player off anything weaker than a K but poor for a value bet against an unknown who likely isn't super strong.

    He had K8hh and was probably going for for the stack-a-donk line thinking that a donk would never fold a K. Then, he bet big on the river to make up for missing one street of value when the turn got checked through.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Tough luck, Claire,
    If villain is opening K8s from MP, I'd start and 3bet him until he tightens up or table changes.
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    The good news is, when you pay a bet off like that, people tend to think you're a station and are less likely to bluff you in the future.

    Not-so-thinly-veiled brag: That was the first time I got valuetowned on the river for over 25 hours straight of live poker
  • Claire,

    I think that you are giving this guy way too much credit. He's not good enough to "merge" a hand like AA, QQ or JJ if he is a tournament player and that bet sizing was strictly based upon the absolute value of his own hand. If you put a player like me or yourself OOP as villain the river is much much more interesting. Sometimes we out level ourselves by thinking of what we would do in a certain spot when in fact our opponent isnt even close to analyzing the same situation at that level.

    Bart
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Bart said

    Claire,

    I think that you are giving this guy way too much credit. He's not good enough to "merge" a hand like AA, QQ or JJ if he is a tournament player and that bet sizing was strictly based upon the absolute value of his own hand.
    ... our opponent isnt even close to analyzing the same situation at that level.

    Bart
    Bart, I am curious what information in the OP makes you think that he is not doing this as a bluff but only plays off his own hand strength. Claire described him as a good aggressive tournament player. If he is "good" (of course that's a pretty relative characteristic), we should assume that he's a thinking player. What kind of hands should he really expect to be called by here?
    You frequently mention in your podcasts that players tend to bluff more in tournaments. And this guy is aggressive. I don't understand how you assume that he's only looking at his own hand.
  • WillWayWillWay Posts: 35Member
    Claire-
    Most opponents tend to overbet nutty hands rather than bluff on the river. I also discard the notion of tournament vs. cash regs while in c/g hands, b/c I think its irrelevent to the present situation. The villain's style and your understanding of his overall grasp of the game is more important than where he spends most of his time playing. What the pot is laying you, your equity, and metagame w/ the opponent is what's important.
    I really like your posts Claire, b/c they always get me thinking about the game concepts I should pay more attention to Smile Thanks
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I was probably just leveling myself with this hand. If I didn't think so hard, I would have just folded.

    The problem here was, if this guy thought I was level 1-2, then he would be level 2-3, and I was on like level 6

    My axiom of poker should be "If you're more than one level ahead, you're actually behind"
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Bart said

    Claire,

    I think that you are giving this guy way too much credit. He's not good enough to "merge" a hand like AA, QQ or JJ if he is a tournament player and that bet sizing was strictly based upon the absolute value of his own hand. If you put a player like me or yourself OOP as villain the river is much much more interesting. Sometimes we out level ourselves by thinking of what we would do in a certain spot when in fact our opponent isnt even close to analyzing the same situation at that level.

    Bart
    Well I was gonna say exactly what Bart said but he got to the post before me.. I see so many players check full houses on turn after raising pre and cbetting on flop that the overbet to me would mean a boat. most of the time..

    I would fold but I am a tighter player.. Embarassed
  • JohnHashemJohnHashem Posts: 24Subscriber
    1) You have to decide if he is a good tournament player, or a high-level thinking cash game player. You seemed to mix these descriptions and they are incredibly different.
    2) Don't transpose your thinking onto another player, especially if he is a tournament player and you are a cash game player
    3)The King is not a blank when you hold a king as it lowers the chances of being up VS a bigger king by 50%. If you have A8, yeah the king is a blank for your hand, but when you mix it in with him now checking turn and pounding river, it is surely not a blank. You could have leveled yourself into the fold but I don't blame you as their are several contradicting concepts that push it either way such as:

    Could he have air?
    -If he has air, the king is a brutal bluffing card, so checking turn is still in bluffing range
    -When you check back the turn, your hand looks like A8, or 99-QQ, and when you mix this with the fact that you perceive the King as a blank (which the villian may expect you to think, as many people with second pair will look at the top pair pairing as a blank to talk themselves into a call), he may feel that he has to overbet to push you off 2 pair as you are going to get stubborn with the "king is a blank" or "king improves my hand" thought process.

    However, at the end of the day, if you have never seen someone overbet, and its a paired board, and he is overbetting, I would surely give him credit. Even if your hand doesn't look like trips. The only boards the average player may overbet bluff would be front door flushes missing --> back door flush hitting, back door flush missing w/ front door flush hitting, 4 liners.
  • BigOwlBigOwl Posts: 80Member
    I think the most important part of this hand is why we are pot controlling turn. I bet fold this turn and I don't see any reason to give villain a free card. If he isn't calling this turn then I don't believe he is calling river either, and I don't like giving free cards to hands that will only put more money in the pot if they spike a card that beats us.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    BigOwl said

    I think the most important part of this hand is why we are pot controlling turn. I bet fold this turn and I don't see any reason to give villain a free card. If he isn't calling this turn then I don't believe he is calling river either, and I don't like giving free cards to hands that will only put more money in the pot if they spike a card that beats us.
    There are hardly any draws on the board, and we have trips. What cards are we afraid of?
    If I understood Claire correctly (please correct me if I am wrong, Claire), her thought was that villain's range contains more hands that will either bet the river or call a river bet than will call a turn bet. I don't think she was afraid to bet-fold, she just thought it's not the most EV line. To me, this sounds pretty plausible, given the board texture and her image.
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    In tournaments, people like to float with zero equity, so this guy likes to C/R turn with air against suspected floaters sometimes too. When you call the flop and bet turn when checked to, it just looks like a float to him. So I'd rather not bet/fold turn.
    That, and he would never call turn and call river with worse. I'll either be value owning or get bluffed if I go for 3 streets
  • I fold. His hand looks a lot like a boat, maybe even ran into on the river. I'd consider 3betting pre, also. I have been trying a lot more 3bets with these type of hands and I am liking the results. It is better than calling a lot of the time, especially if the player is decent and capable of folding.
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