Paraphrased transcript of me discussing a hand my friend played with the same villain:
Friend: "Good aggro tournament player who doesn't play cash as much made it $35 UTG+1. Guy calls in between. I call with 56ss. Flop Ac 4s 9s. He bets $75, guy in the middle folds, I called. Turn was an Ad, and he checked. So of course I bet."
Me (interrupting): "Don't bet"
Him: "Why not?"
Me: If he was bluffing, he would probably keep betting to keep his story of having a big A consistent and try to get you to fold a pair or weak A. And tournament plays are way more pot controlly than cash players, so he could even be checking an A that isn't AK/AQ there. I doubt he's ever checking to c/f."
Him: "Anyway, let me finish the hand. So I bet $200, which I would if I had an A. and he called. And the river bricked off, and I bet $500, and he snapped with ATss. I could never put him on that."
Me: "I think I would have played it similarly if I were him. He didn't want to bet and get blown off his redraw when his A was only a T kicker. Besides, if you really did have an A on that turn, but it was a weak A, would you seriously bet there?"
Him: "Duh. There's a flush draw out there. And besides, it's not just top pair. It's trip aces."
Me: "I might even check if I had an A for pot control and to not get blown off the best hand. I've played tourney players more than you, and they're going to C/C with something like KK but C/R draws and big aces, so betting there is a disaster. Just go for future value on the river if he doesn't have an A when you actually have an A. Besides, why does it matter that you have trip aces? Isn't it effectively the same thing as if the turn were a blank and you had top pair with a weak kicker?"
Maybe I've officially surpassed him in high level thinking ^_^
And anyway, onto the hand I played against the same villain:
5/10 ~$1700 effective
I'm a random unknown girl to this villain and have been on the tighter side. Haven't done anything too sophisticated in this session, so he's likely to think that I'm worse than I actually am.
One limper in EP
Villain raises to $45 from MP
Hero calls OTB with KcJc
Flop ($150) Kd 8c 4h
Villain bets $75
Turn ($300) Ks
Hero checks back for pot control/future value purposes described in the background hand. Just as I would check back KJ here sometimes if the turn was a blank against competent aggro competition, I'm doing it because the K is effectively a blank, even though it gives me trips.
Villain bets $410
Now, I haven't played with this villain much, so maybe he thinks I would never check back the turn with a K and is now bluffing me because he thinks I'm weak and this size bet will fold out 100% of my range. Or maybe he had TT and ran into a full house and is trying to maximize value (or was going for a turn C/R with 88). Thoughts about this river?