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enough showdown value with AQ?

chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
2/3nl live, $300 max.

hero ($600): after a couple of pretty gross hands against the mega fish at the table, i have made a bit of a comeback -- my image is on an upswing.

Villian ($200): villian table changed and added on at the time to bring his stack up to about $300. since then he has called a lot preflop, including from oop, and hasn't been super aggro pre.

preflop: villian opens to $15 UTG+1, hero calls UTG+3 with AQo, button calls, blinds fold.

flop ($45):
Jd6c4d
checks around.

turn ($45):
9h
villian checks, hero bets $30 (after being given the green light!), button folds, villian calls after a bit longer than typical rhythm.

river ($105):
3c
villian checks. hero?

do we have enough showdown value here to check it back? do we think he's folding a pair?
do we think QT/KQ or diamonds are a strong enough part of his early position opening range to showdown here?
if we bluff, what sizing do you like?

[this is obv not a big pot, but these kinds of small pots happen a lot and can significantly affect your win rate]

Comments

  • bobo1384bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    im thinking villain has A9s,ATdd,KQdd,KTdd,QTdd, 78dd, 89s,T9s,TT,77-88, JTs(unlikely but if hes passive its possible)

    I dont think you get him to fold 9's here enough so I would just check it back
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Pretty interesting spot. I guess it's close. My feeling is that we should bet the river in order to get him off hands like 55, 77-88, 6x, 4x, etc. I think his pause before calling the turn reduces the likelihood that he's on a flush draw, so weak made hands become a larger part of his range IMO. If you believe he's capable of folding such hands, bet around 65-70.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    bobo1384 said

    im thinking villain has A9s,ATdd,KQdd,KTdd,QTdd, 78dd, 89s,T9s,TT,77-88, JTs(unlikely but if hes passive its possible)

    I dont think you get him to fold 9's here enough so I would just check it back
    my impression of his preflop raising range from EP did not include speculative hands like A9s or suited connectors. i was thinking more in the premium range. if i was to try to peg his opening range in that spot, i wouldn't include ATs either, and would probably be convinced of AJ, but it's not a slam dunk (obv he doesn't have AJ in this hand, or at least it's obvious to me).

    i also have a hard time putting in real small pairs. i'm thinking 99+ in that spot.

    he seemed to be loose passive pre.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Chili, if that's the preflop range you put him on, it becomes a check back IMO.
  • LucasELucasE Posts: 167Member
    Any particular reason you decided on a delayed c-bet against this villain (with the range you have given him) on this board?

    EDIT: Ugh, totally misread OP.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Lucas: Villain was the preflop aggressor, but he then checked twice.

    Chili: I have a feeling that you bet the river and villain called you down with AK.
    Good guess?
  • MikeMike Posts: 371Member
    i think the only hand you can get to fold on the river is AK. And i think your range for villian is way too tight.

    I would also bet this flop when the PFR checked.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Mike said

    i think the only hand you can get to fold on the river is AK. And i think your range for villian is way too tight.

    I would also bet this flop when the PFR checked.
    This villian seemed happy to limp/call most of the time pre, so his early position raising range did seem tight to me.
    As for betting when the pfr checks the flop: I am not in position -- the button called preflop too. I am in the middle. Tough to bet the flop with nothing when I have an undefined button range behind me in a single raised pot.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    Lucas: Villain was the preflop aggressor, but he then checked twice.

    Chili: I have a feeling that you bet the river and villain called you down with AK.
    Good guess?
    After he checked twice I did take that as a green light to steal. His turn call timing helped lead me to my river decision.
  • jmcjmc Posts: 58Member
    chilidog said
    Mike said

    i think the only hand you can get to fold on the river is AK. And i think your range for villian is way too tight.

    I would also bet this flop when the PFR checked.
    This villian seemed happy to limp/call most of the time pre, so his early position raising range did seem tight to me.
    As for betting when the pfr checks the flop: I am not in position -- the button called preflop too. I am in the middle. Tough o bet the flop with nothing when I have an undefined button range behind me in a single raised pot.
    Anyone besides me think that calling an ep raise w AQo from mid position is probably not an awesome idea?

    On the river, i suspect he has something like a mid pair
    Bluff if you can get that to fold.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    jmc said

    Anyone besides me think that calling an ep raise w AQo from mid position is probably not an awesome idea?
    Why?
  • jmcjmc Posts: 58Member
    whatsyourplay? said
    jmc said

    Anyone besides me think that calling an ep raise w AQo from mid position is probably not an awesome idea?
    Why?
    chilidog said it earlier: villain is fairly tight with his preflop raises. if villain's range is something like AK-AJ, AA-22, we are an equity dog with AQo. Add in the fact that we might not have position and get sandwiched (as illustrated by this hand), making it difficult for us to "make a move" if the original raiser shows weakness.

    If the original raiser's range is in fact tigher, say AQ+, 99+, we are in even worse equity shape. To justify a call preflop, we need some way of exploiting post flop play to either extract additional value when we're ahead (maybe he wont fold JJ on an A high board) or we need to bluff him off the best hand (he check folds JJ on a K high board) AND we need to not pay off against his overpairs and AK combos when we flop a Q or A.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I don't think hot and cold equity is a helpful criteria to make a decision in this spot. If villain did flip over 22 or 66, we were an equity dog. But there's no way in hell I would fold preflop to one of those hands. I think we should more focus on postflop playability. Who is more likely to make postflop mistakes? Who has a dominated hand more often? If villain is uber-tight and only opens AK and QQ+, than I am folding preflop. But as long as he is opening AJ and 99,TT, I think we can call. Curious to hear what others are thinking, though. Anybody else folding pre?
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Maybe due to the pace of live poker, I can't imagine folding pre to one bet with AQ without history or a serious read on the player. I did however fold AJo to an open the other day, which I was kind of proud of. :)

    This player I classified as loose passive meaning he was calling and limp/calling too much pre. Lol sample size, but I handt seen him open raise that many hands yet. Based in his line, I thot there was a decent chance he held exactly AK.
  • floppedawheelfloppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    so he's calling with a bunch of straight and flush draws, which you beat. and a bunch of small-ish pairs, which he might or might not call with. so it comes down to: what have you seen him call down with on the river? if he's pretty much calling everything down, don't bother firing. it's a read you have to make at the table. i don't think we have enough of a description to say for sure, but you seem to think his pfr range is fairly strong cause mostly he's been just limping in. i think if we need a tie-breaker here, that's as good as any. so just give up and hope he was sitting on a missed draw that he didn't fire with.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Results below:
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    Obv his range is pretty weak (<top pair) after checking all three streets. Based on his timing of the turn c/c, his preflop sizing, and his tendencies that I tried to state in this thread, I thought his range was heavily weighted towards AK. I felt it would be a travesty to let him off the hook by checking down river and letting him win with AK (or possibly a mid-small pair). I didn't think he had enough draws in his range that he would play like that meaning I didn't think I had enough showdown value here on the river. I chose a river bluff size of $80 which would give him a tough choice with whatever he held, which was obviously not as strong as a pair of jacks. He tanked for a long time and eventually folded showing AK. (I told him he made a good fold -- and that I had a set: positive reinforcement, amirite?)
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    nice hand, well played!
  • jmcjmc Posts: 58Member
    chilidog said

    Results below:
    .
    .
    .
    Obv his range is pretty weak (<top pair) after checking all three streets. Based on his timing of the turn c/c, his preflop sizing, and his tendencies that I tried to state in this thread, I thought his range was heavily weighted towards AK. I felt it would be a travesty to let him off the hook by checking down river and letting him win with AK (or possibly a mid-small pair). I didn't think he had enough draws in his range that he would play like that meaning I didn't think I had enough showdown value here on the river. I chose a river bluff size of $80 which would give him a tough choice with whatever he held, which was obviously not as strong as a pair of jacks. He tanked for a long time and eventually folded showing AK. (I told him he made a good fold -- and that I had a set: positive reinforcement, amirite?)
    If you're gonna lie about your hand, a set doesn't make much sense. Most people don't give free cards on 2-tone J-high boards.

    Nice river bluff - the fact that he tanked for awhile with AK is troubling though. Perhaps trying to get your opponent to fold hands may not be the best strategy in the future?
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