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RTR--Complex Turn spot 110BB effective



  • iLikeCaliDonksiLikeCaliDonks Posts: 932Troll
    edited December 2014
    Dont think this is a complex turn spot at all. You called flop after getting raised. He continues ott, Easy fold.
  • MouseMasherMouseMasher Posts: 78Subscriber
    Hi Guys,

    Flop: We are near the top of our equity distribution and without reads I'd be checking at least 50% of the time, maybe a lot more. Betting is fine but live players tend to play very poorly against a balanced checking range and think that a check means "he doesn't have an A so I can win the pot now or on a later street." Not to mention that I can't imagine a decent player showing up in UTG1 with a set so betting only serves to get action from strong hands from bad players (not good for Hero) and money from "sticky" nits, which the villain is prolly not.

    Once he raises I'd assume he is awful at poker and have to decide if he is bad cuz he is crazy aggressive post flop, meaning I'm gonna call down fairly wide or he plays his hands face up and I have an easy fold.

    Turn: We are prolly near the bottom of our distribution vs a nit who is looking to get more money in the pot. Bart mentioned conditional probability so, I guess, the question is "what is the the probability that he has us crushed (quads, boats and canoes) given that he raised the flop and bet the turn?"

    Our absolute hand strength looks good but I suspect our relative hand strength is very bad so I'd fold and pat myself on the back for not paying a nit but wonder whether I could have folded the flop. If he shows a total bluff, Ax, or turned a PP into a bluff I'd smile at him and say "very nice hand."
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