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Nut flush on 5 card monotone board - bet/fold?

Philly DavePhilly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
edited December 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$1/3 short handed $400 effective.

villain ($400) fairly ABC player who will make occasional stabs or bluff missed draws. He recently bluffed missed flush on the river for about $75 but rarely running huge bluffs.

Hero ($850) playing mostly TAG... Particularly tight actually. V has only been at table less than an hour and may view hero as a bit laggier from past experience.

Currently 6 handed and opening raises have decreased from $15-$18 to $10-$12.

V opens utg to $10. It can be a bit tougher to assign ranges to these opens 6 handed but I range him something like bigger SCs and most pocket pairs and Broadway's. MP calls Hero calls OTB with KhQc.

Flop ($30) AT8 all hearts. V leads 25. MP folds. Hero calls.

Turn ($80) 5h.
V checks hero bets $60 and V calls.

River ($200) Qh
V checks, Hero bets $100 and V moves all in for $305.

Hero?



Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    UTG raise even 6 handed this guy just isnt doing this move on the river without a full house.. just fold.. you are never good often enough here..

    I mean unless you have specifically seen this guy rep a fullhouse on this type of board before with a river check raise shove I am just laughing and folding..

    His line just smells like flop set or two pair check calls turn when 4th heart is out there and goes for cr on river not because he thinks you are a thin value bettor but because hes trapping and thinks you are never folding.. which most players wont..



    ww
  • BradleyTBradleyT Posts: 621Subscriber, Professional
    ^^No FH possible. All he can have is J9 hearts for straight flush and I'm doubtful on him opening that UTG even short handed.
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    We lose only to exactly J9hh. Call.
    Yes , villain is repping exactly J9hh, but 1 combo is pretty narrow range. He will sometimes have it, but I think it's worth a payoff here.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Yea easy call.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Sorry i thought for sure the board was paired. My bad. Lol.
  • Topset1610Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    Call

    Is there any type of high hand going on? If so, even quicker call. I don't think this guy is leading with an open ended straight flush draw.
    Thanked by 1FreeLunch
  • dannydeucesdannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    Snap call.
  • Philly DavePhilly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    @topset
    J9hh would have been a flopped 3rd nut flush with oesf redraw.

    I saw this river raise as being very polarized. Given how I have played the hand it should look like what it is and I would expect a hand like AxJh or JxJh or any non believing value hand to just call. So I don't see villain "over valuing" worse flushes here. At the table I kept asking myself would this guy ever play JJ or AJ with the Jh this way? I had a hard time saying yes.

    We are getting about 2.5:1 so isn't the question simply "does villain bluff or turn his hand into a bluff 1 out of 3.5 times?"

    Bart frequently says how few players will raise the river as a bluff and this is a difficult board to overvalue a hand on.
  • Topset1610Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    @topset
    J9hh would have been a flopped 3rd nut flush with oesf redraw.

    I know. Assuming he is not a pro people love high hand bonuses / the chance of tabling a straight flush. I see them typically slow play here, because they are scared of everyone folding and not getting to see the turn.

    Is his river raise $300 on top or $200 on top?
  • Philly DavePhilly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    Oh i get you. The room has a hh promo but it's not in effect at this time.

    Shove is 200 on top of my 100 bet.
  • Topset1610Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    Not to be nit picky, but if that is the case your effective stack sizes are off $100 and your actual pot odds are 3 to 1. So you need to be good 25% of the time.

    There is literally 1 combo here that beats you. I honestly still think he is checking the flop here a lot. I also am not that sure he is going to risk it going check / check and take a check / shove line on the river. I think he would be much more likely to bet the river.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I agree you really only see players w small flushes leading in general. With only one combo that beats me getting this good of odds AND a player that had bluffed in other hands i am snap calling his all in
  • Philly DavePhilly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    Yeah I had his stack wrong. I corrected the op.

    So we are snapping off what we expect to be some flopped hand that maybe didn't fill up (sets or 2p) that he turned into a bluff OTR mostly? Or are we expecting to see some overplayed inferior flushes too?
  • mattbmattb Posts: 13Subscriber
    I dont think you'll ever see smaller flushes here. Getting almost 3 to 1 I probably find a call. I dont think the player type you described bluffs here that offen, but people start to do things out of character when it gets short handed.

    Offer him $50 to see one card.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,127Administrator, LeadPro
    edited December 2014
    I actually don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that this guy had what he perceived to be a big hand on the flop like a set or top two, check called the turn and then with the 5 flush run out is doing something stupid on the river as his hand no longer plays. Only needing to be good here 1 out 4 times I call. It would be different if he shoved for say 1000 more or something. With these stack sizes there is also a very off chance maybe say 1 out of 15 or 1 out of 20 times that he has J.

    This is similar to situations where people limp in with KK preflop dont get the limp reraise and then make a nonsensical check raise post flop on an ace hi board. I used to see it on old school LATB all the time.

    Bart
    Thanked by 1Thehammah
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I was in a hand w a bozo that limped KK pre allowed and another guy to limp along. A high board and he check shipped 1000.

    Thats why with just one combo we lose too I just cant see folding here
  • Philly DavePhilly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    Yeah I mean I've had plenty of people spazz. Just last week at 2/5 I 3 bet AA over a flat caller, the initial PFR and field caller flatted, the initial PFR donked a J hi flop rediculously small, field caller flats I raise, donk bettor flats and now the field caller back ships a huge over bet. I fold mostly because I thought the PFR was inducing and sure enough he snaps with top set. field caller showed KK for a fairly ludicrous spazz after a bizzare slow play.

    In this hand here I just didn't think this guy was spazzing very often. Quite honestly I don't think I really put much thought into how much spazz was in his range.

    I think I felt he probably shouldn't be expecting many folds from players taking my line b/c so many will check back smaller flushes in my spot and only bet near nuts. from villain perspective Am I calling the flop and betting the turn with many value hands that are bet folding the river? If not then villain can only think he is bluffing me off a possible chop or something like a 7h. So I didn't think it was a thought out bluff either which mostly left me wondering if he ever does this with a naked Jh and I concluded mostly what Bart did that it was very infrequently.

    so I actually folded and uncharacteristically I showed (I know I know) Villain showed J9hh.

    The table went on and on about my fold and I really didn't think it was THAT rediculous of a fold. But I got to thinking about whether I was being results oriented in thinking this was a good fold. Which judging from the responses here could possibly be the case.

    If the guy was an idiot or maniac I prob call it off without a lot of thought but this guy was neither. Maybe this is an LOL live read thing or maybe a suboptimal fold that happened to be right this time.
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