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CLP No.168: Postflop Play In 3bet Pots

CLP_CraigCLP_Craig Posts: 790Administrator
edited November 2014 in Crush Live Poker Videos
Join David Chan this week as he discusses postflop play in 3bet pots

Episode post at 2PM ET.



  • David ChanDavid Chan Posts: 1,208Pro
    edited November 2014
    Please let me know if you guys like or dislike the format of this CLP Video. I would also appreciate any constructive criticism regarding how I could make future CLP Videos better.
    Thanked by 1Baggio95
  • sleepyboysleepyboy Posts: 127Subscriber
    I know I raise and call 3bets OOP a lot. Even though I'm pretty confident in my post flop play, I'm still probably calling 3bets too much. With medium strength hands like TT/JJ and even QQ, I don't see why we wouldn't be flatting the majority of the time. Sure we can fold against the tightest of 3bettors, but by 4betting we are turning our hand into a bluff and we have to fold to a 5bet. TT/JJ have too much value to turn into a bluff. I recently posted a hand in the forum where I play QQ to a 3bet OOP.
  • David ChanDavid Chan Posts: 1,208Pro
    edited November 2014
    Against most Villains at the 2/5 NL up to 5/10 NL levels, I think that you are overestimating your equity when you flat OOP with TT in a MP2 versus BTN 3bet situation.

    Let's assume that you open-raise $20 at 2/5 NL with TT in MP2 with $600 effective stacks and you get 3bet by BTN to $60.

    If you think Villain's BTN 3bet range is: AQ+/TT+ (pretty reasonable range assuming he doesn't bluff in today's games), your hot and cold equity with TT is only 40%. Your "realizable equity" (the practical equity that you will actually be able to realize because you will sometimes get blown off your hot-cold equity) is probably significantly less than that.

    Your "realizable equity" depends heavily on 2 factors:

    1. Position (Being OOP is a big handicap for being able to realize our equity)
    2. Skill (If your postflop skill is good, then you will be able to realize more of your equity, and if the Villain's postflop skill is good, then you will realize less of your equity)

    Let's hypothetically assume an "R" of 75% or 0.75. "R" being the "realization of equity" coefficient. This means that you will only have 30% "realizable equity" (we calculate this by multiplying 75% "R" against the 40% hot and cold equity with TT MP2 versus the BTN 3bet range of AQ+/TT+).

    That means that we need to be getting 7:3 pot odds to make this a breakeven EV neutral call.

    Assuming that rake is $5, we are getting offered $82 to $40 on the preflop call (just about 2 to 1 pot odds)...which is slightly less than the 7:3 pot odds that we do need.

    Now, you can argue that you are a postflop genius ninja, and therefore your "R" is much higher than 75% (0.75). Maybe the "R" is basically 90% despite your being OOP. That means your "realizable equity" is probably 36% (90% "R" coefficient times 40% hot-cold equity) with TT versus BTN's 3bet range of AQ+/TT+. Then you are obviously making a +EV call with TT since you are getting better than 2 to 1 pot odds and only need.

    Basically, it all depends on your position and your postflop skiil versus Villain's postflop skill. The more confident that you are with your postflop skills versus your opponent's postflop skills, the more loosely that you can call OOP with medium strength hands.

    The big problem is twofold. One, most players overestimate their own postflop skills. Two, most players underestimate the disadvantage of being OOP in a 3bet pot. Therefore, they often make overly optimistic calls that they think are +EV when they are actually -EV calls.
  • sleepyboysleepyboy Posts: 127Subscriber
    Thank you for the long and thought out response David. I'll have to read it a few times to really make sure I understand what you're saying.
  • RogerHardyRogerHardy Posts: 795Subscriber
    I concur with sleepboy, very nice post dave, thank you.
  • BigLarryBigLarry Posts: 86Subscriber

    Great video and great post!

    I definitely tend to default towards calling 3bets oop with hands that appear to be too strong to fold but too weak to 4 bet and I basically look to hit the flop hard and subsequently try to build a big pot oop. After the video I am seeing that this is an area where I am clearly leaking $. From now on in these situations I am going to hedge more towards folding or taking the 4-bet lead from oop because of the huge positional disadvantage I have by giving my opponent the agressive lead in the hand in position and allowing him to better define (narrow) my range through his 3-bet and my oop flat call.

    I also very much liked the last segment where you focused on SPR. I always try to estimate what eff stacks will be in relation to pot on river as hand develops but never actually viewed it as matematically as villan having 4.5 or 5-1 SPR on flop and that 1/2 pot bets on flop and turn would leave me where I want to be on river for optimal river play. I never realized it was that simple...I was always estimating the numbers in my mind. The formula you explained is much easier. I would like to watch some more SPR video segments to further simplify the concept in my mind. I occasionally find it amazing that I have been playing so long and that certain concepts have escaped me..

    Thanks again!


  • MikeGMikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    Can you talk about the times you would call 3 bets OOP? You basically said that most of the time at the low-mid stakes, you should adopt a 4bet or fold mentality. What are the the factors that go into the times when you don't adopt this mentality?

  • MikeGMikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    Also, thoughts on first hand from Phil's perspective on the turn (AA v 88) when the Jack pairs? If we're flatting the flop with eights, I think we need to win some pots that aren't just AK shutting down. I'm thinking check-raise some percentage of the time, esp against decent players who have a fold button. Also, if it checks through and 8 doesn't come on the river, I think a large check-raise can be an option. Thoughts?
  • NEONEO Posts: 46Subscriber
    David- Just wanted to let you guys know that Bart's new video "Donk Leads II" is labeled as your 3 bet video, and your actual 3 bet video is no longer there.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,152Administrator, LeadPro
    We got that fixed that was me mislabeling my new video. Sorry!!

  • David ChanDavid Chan Posts: 1,208Pro
    MikeG wrote:
    Also, thoughts on first hand from Phil's perspective on the turn (AA v 88) when the Jack pairs? If we're flatting the flop with eights, I think we need to win some pots that aren't just AK shutting down. I'm thinking check-raise some percentage of the time, esp against decent players who have a fold button. Also, if it checks through and 8 doesn't come on the river, I think a large check-raise can be an option. Thoughts?
    The problem with making a move OOP with 88 is that it is very hard to execute a turn CR bluff successfully because most live players often pot control overpairs when the top card (Jack) pairs in spots like this.

    Making a move with 88 is much easier when we are IN POSITION because we can always bloat the pot when checked to on the turn. By betting turn and bombing river, we can put someone to a big decision even if they keep checking to us.

    In other words, POSITION is really important when playing marginal hands in 3bet pots. Without POSITION, we are handcuffed for the most part. With POSITION, we can turn pairs/air into bluffs much more effectively.

  • ddzddz Posts: 152Subscriber, Professional
    Minor point, but please blow your nose before recording, or pause the video during recording to clear the sinuses. All that sniffling was not pleasant with headphones :???:

    Content-wise, no complaints.
    Thanked by 2BradleyT samsaraa
  • NEONEO Posts: 46Subscriber
    David, I would like it if you did a video on 4 betting. Since 3 betting is becoming more common in today's games and is a concept not really covered all that much at CLP.

    For instance, what is the optimal hands to 4 bet bluff with and why? I'm assuming alot of Ax or Kx hands, or any hand that is not good enough to call a 3 bet with like 10,8off, etc.
    Also, we probably never want to 4 bet bluff in games where the stack sizes are 100bb or less, but what other concepts and general strategy would you recommend we consider?

    In the example on the last hand in the video where the player OOP with 10,10 should have 4betted, how would you have played that hand if you were in position instead? Even with pocket pair hands like 55-99? Would it be better to flat these types of hands when we're in position in a 3 bet pot because they are too nice a hand to see a flop with and because we have the advantage of being in position?
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