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OOP w/ initiative: Bet river for "thin" value?

CajunDragonCajunDragon Posts: 173Member
1/2 NLHE @ Venetian, 100-300max.

Hero has been playing for about an hour. I'm not entirely confident I'd call my image TAG so much as SLAG (slightly loose/aggro). My first hand I ended up cold 3b'ing a regular who I read for iso'ing UTG limper and scooping up pot preflop. I've also opened quite a few pots, raised limpers in position and been 3b twice now, both times I had to fold cause I was holding something like KQ which was playing AWFUL OOP v. their 3b range. So I'd say I've been opening/raising enough that I'm not exactly looked at as "tight" anymore.

The villain in this hand is one of the most noticeable marks on the table, and is a HUGE station. The only time he deviates from his passive (calling) play seems to be when it's checked to him OTB and then he often bombs like $20 into a pot of like $6 (only overbets when pot is wicked small). I won't go so far as to call him positionally aware, but he'll def. try to pick up an orphaned pot if he is in position.

Hero is playing ~$200, Vil covers.

Hero AQ UTG raises $10, folds to button, button (Vil) calls, sb fold, bb fold.

HU, Pot $23
Flop: Q32
Hero bets $12, Vil calls.

HU, Pot $47
Turn: 3
Hero bets $30, (*Vil looks back at cards) Vil calls.

HU, Pot $107
River: A
Hero bets $70

I'm pretty used to betting here for value, but I kept thinking about it more and more and am not so sure it's as good a spot for thin value as I think.

The river completes OESD, turn brings in FD. I was betting to get value out of QX hands, but the river may scare those holdings - on the other hand, would a QX not look at the river as counterfeiting their kicker and ergo might encourage a call? I'm also owning AsXo hands, but what AsXo combos am I beating that peeled the flop (As2o)? I mean I've seen people peel with 2 overs, but it's a Qhi flop, he's suppose to have 2 overs?

Okay, so then if I think he's calling me with more hands that beat me than I beat, I should check/call? We're not really check/folding top 2 here, are we? I'm not. I don't like the check/call line cause the busted flush draws should all have some showdown value and often will just check back, same holds true for all QX hands.

Which I guess leaves me with my original thought when I bet that river. I'm bet/folding the river. I do not expect him to raise with anything less than a boat (sometimes the nut flush) because 1/2 players often fail to get value on these board textures w/o the mortal nuts. So if I'm not folding, and he's unlikely to raise me, I might as well bet because these people surprise me all the time with the trash they call down with and I'm rarely punished for betting in this spot when I am beat.

Thoughts on river play?

Comments

  • shmedshmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Quick note - would have been easier to analyze if you included the suits of the cards as you described the action, rather than allude to them later. Did the turned FD complete on the river?

    I am not sure I follow everything you wrote, but based on your first commentary alone (you don't have a great image, V is a calling station), I think the river is a bet. It's hard for me to comment on whether I would bet/fold or bet/call because I'm not sure how the suits progressed (is the A part of the FD etc.) - I think a FH is pretty unlikely -- pretty much limited to a suited A3 -- slowplayed on the turn. You have already committed 120 of your 200, is a reason not to fold if you bet.

    I would also probably bet more on the flop both for value, and so that you can set up an easier play for stacks by the river.

    Sorry feel like this is haphazard but it's hard without knowing how this flush progressed.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Cajun

    I think the most important thing about this hand is you said that villain is a total station.. Given this you can bet uber uber thin and they will call you. Against a nitty player you probably should still bet, the difference should be in bet sizing. Against stations go ahead and bet larger and against nits bet smaller.. It still looks like a bluff to them.

    Then if either a station or a nit raises you can safely fold if you get raised. double checking his cards is usually a tell.. if the turn brought a backdoor flush draw I would really feel he is checking to see he has that flush draw to go along with whatever he is calling with on the flop.

    Range is any wheel draw suited cards, unsuited wheel draws with an ace. Qs

    since he didnt raise on the turn I will discount a 3..

    ww
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