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Probably a leak in my game

dapperdavedapperdave Posts: 26Member
I have situations where I am playing for a gut shot straight draw (trying to be sneaky).

Here is an example-you get five limpers and I have a had hand like J9o (In case your wondering, I was not playing this out of position). The flop would be something like T, 7 2 off. A guy in early or mid would make it $25 and get at least one or two callers before the action gets to me. I would then call. The turn would always be a brick to my draw and the better would make the second bet and I would then fold or if it checks around to me on the turn I would usually check (gladly getting a free river card) and of course brick that also.

Question-first, should I have call to begin with?
Once I call:
Even when it gets checked around to me-should I bet if a brick comes? what if an A,K,Q (providing that K or Q is the top card on the board) hits the turn-should I bet if check around to me?

Other than a flush draw completing on the turn or river-is there any other situation where you would either re-raise the bettor on the turn or river in this situation with the multiple callers?


  • Unfortunately the answer is "it depends".
    First of all j9o is pretty speculative. Jto (and other connectors) are better. J9o needs a ten to make a straight. Jto can flop multiple draws. second, you only want to play it on the button or maybe in the co. You want to be against bad opponents bc mostly you'll flop 1 pair with a bad kicker and good players won't pay you off. If theyrr nitty you can sometimes steal limped pots if checked to, but don't overdo it at lower limits bc people love to call. You probably can't go wrong just folding those hands pre.

    With a gutshot you have 4 outs. That means you are about 9% or 10-1 to hit with 1 card to come. If your jack is an overcard as in your example you nay have additional outs, but you could hit a jack and still lose.

    If the guy bets 25, you need to make ten times that bet (250) in order to call. That includes the money also in the pot. If the pot is 25 and he bets 25 and gets 2 calls, there is 100 in the pot before you call. You need to make 150 more by the river if you hit the turn to make the call.
    This assumes you win if you hit. If there is a flush draw or paired board you could hit and be drawn out on on the river or some if your outs may be dirty.

    Just remember that if you hit your draw, especially if your out is an overcard, you might not get paid off. So you really want your opponent to have a strong hand when you call with a gutshot because you need to get paid if you hit.

    On the other hand, if you think your opponents are weak and you'll often see 2 cards, you don't need to make quite as much.

    So its not a question of should i call 25, but how much is on the pot, what do you think your opponents have, and how much can I make when I hit.

    Should you bluff the turn? Again, that depends on what you think your opponents have, the action, position etc. Having a gutshot helps bc you have 9%to improve if your bluff is called, but if theoretically you think your opponents are never folding you should just take the free card and hope to hit.

    To recap, with j9o on t72, a bet and several calls I need to figure out whther my jack might be good. If I think I need the 8 to win, I put my opponents on hand ranges and estimate whether I can make 10x the bet if I hit my 8. Then on the turn, depending on the card, action and any live reads i decide whether i can win with a bet. If there are a lot of opponents, lean towards checking.

    As to whether to raise - the answer is will villain fold which takes into account his range etc. You obviously want everyone to fold with a gutshot, so its less about your hand and more about what you think they have.

    I wrote too much already. Hope that helps!
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    I think that unless stacks are very deep, you will find calling is a losing play, especially if you tend to pay off you pair your 9 or J (as PokerIsFrustrating has already said). I think barring very deep stacks, the two options to consider in this sort of situation are folding or raising. Both of these options are better than calling.

    Think about how often you see someone bet on a pretty dry board, get a few callers, and then get raised and snap fold. You could be the person picking up that pot a significant chunk of the time. You actually also have better equity against hands that call you than you would by just calling since you will often get the medium Ts that collide with your 9 and J to fold and they may only proceed on with 98 (which you beat with J high) and KT+.

    Wendy actually started a thread along these lines that you may want to check out:
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