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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
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NL $1/$3

We're $400 effective. Villain is a young laggy guy who I have seen make a couple of plays in the two hours that I've been at the table. I'm in the hijack with Js8s. It's folded to me and I make it $10. The button calls and the big blind calls.

Flop: Jd9c6c ($30). It's checked to me and I bet $20. Both the button and the BB call.

Turn is a 4s ($90). Checked to me and I bet $50. The button folds and the BB calls.

River is a 7s ($190). The BB donks out for $160. What do I do?

Comments

  • CrazyCBettorCrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    Okay so a lot of draws missed apart from T8. Is this guy that bad that he will bluff in a spot where is very likely to get called because of the missed draws (specially flush draw)? Before listening to bart I was in a habit of making a lot of hero calls but I have reduced them to near zero because people just don't bluff enough. Sure he has some bluffs in his range but is it ~30% which is what you need to make this call profitable. I highly doubt it.

    Side note: I would bet bigger on the turn (like 70), I agree it is difficult to get called by worse made hands if you bet bigger but there are too many draws out there, also you might get better (JT, QJ) to fold.
  • EselspielEselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    Definitely bet more on the turn.

    His range is wider than just T8. There is A8(c), J8,98,86. etc At that level, Although less likely because we have an 8, there are still a fair number. At these stakes, many people would think their hand is boss.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    As others have said, bet more on the turn.

    It's true that a couple of draws missed, but there are many many pair/draw/pair+draw hands that made two pair on the river. So, the question is would he use such a large (i.e. polarized) bet size for value? If you think he will bomb two pair hands on the river, than it's a clear fold. If you think he would bet those smaller, I might consider calling.
  • Thanks for the comments. I agree with Crazy and Eselspiel that I should have bet bigger on the turn.

    As for the result, I ended up calling for mainly the reasons that whatsyourplay identified. First, at this level I don't see people bombing two pair on the river. Plus, what does he hold that the 7 makes him two pair? And two pair (or a set) made earlier would have raised on this drawy board.

    Second, this bet clearly polarizes his holding, and so it really has to be T8 or a missed draw, right? I had a blocker to T8 and I thought he might have bet that smaller.

    Third, I had a live read that he didn't look comfortable.

    So I took about five minutes with it and made the call. He tabled 68, and my J was good. Without the live read, I'm still not sure it was the right call. But he's extremely polarized really to T8 or air, the size of the bet didn't make sense to me, and I only needed to be good 30% of the time.
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