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Semi-Bluffing the Turn

I played this hand last night. I\'d be interested in your thoughts on semi-bluffing the turn in this spot. The pot was big, and I thought the pre-flop raisers line could be weak (or perhaps strong if he flopped a set) and the other villain in the hand wasn\'t showing any strength. I know semi-bluffing in multi-way pots is risky, but I decided to shove the turn to attempt to get some fold equity rather than draw and potentially fold on the river. I have between 23% and 33% pot equity if called and the pot ends up HU (0verpairs, sets, 2p, TP), so I\'ll need 27% to 17% fold equity. I\'m probably f\'ed if both call.

1/2 200 max (10 handed). Effective stacks are 300.

V1: Aggressive with his better hands, but limps a lot of suited and connected trash from all positions. He\'s raising suited aces (I saw him raise A4s in EP),AT+,KTs+,KJ+, QJ,QJs,JTs,pairs (i observed 66), some suited connectors (98s observed). Based on 4 hours of history, I don\'t think his raising range is any tighter in the blinds than in other positions. He seems to utilize bet fold lines quite a bit. He\'s also c-betting just about every flop (they\'re often multi-way in this game), he seems to follow up with a 2nd barrel quite a bit too.

V2: Joined from a broken game 2 orbits ago. He\'s raised a few hands and limped a bunch.

My image. Not too bad, I haven\'t gotten out of line and I\'m up. But I did show a bluff earlier that V1 but not V2 observed.

Preflop: 5 limpers, hero over limps Ad3d OTB. SB completes, V1 raises to 15 in the BB. all call.

Flop ($120): J24 one diamond.

PFR bets $25, 2 callers plus the hero. Based on previous hands where he had an over pair or TPGK, I\'m expecting him to bet closer to half pot. I think he either flopped a set, has JTs, an under pair, A7s, 87s, 76s or unpaired overs. The other callers either have a weak J, 4, 7, or maybe a GS. I actually thought about bumping up the flop to $80 or $85, but with 3 other callers I passed.

Turn: ($220): 7d

PFR bets $45, one fold, V2 calls. With a 2 flush on board I\'d expect a larger bet from a monster hands like a set or two pair, and also from an overpair, or TPGK, so I don\'t think 7d improves anyone but me, and V2 isn\'t showing much strength: maybe a weak jack? Hero shoves for $225 into a pot of $310.

Comments

  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    If he has a bet sizing tell (which you think he does) and only bet $25 on the flop and the other players only called, just bluff raise the flop with your hand if you want to bluff
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I think stacks need to be deeper than 150 bbs to consider a semibluff raise on the turn. If villain is a weaker player and you have pos and he checks to you and no one is short I think you can semi bluff the turn and even make an underbluff on the river..

    ww
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    I don't think I like floating the flop with a naked gutshot given that your overcard is often not clean and your draw isn't to the nuts. If you continue on the flop, I think raising is better. Stacks are too little short to apply real pressure though so folding is probably best.

    Once you get to the turn, I agree with Wendy that you are a little too short for an idea semi-bluff raise. However, you are getting great odds on a flat call since you only need 3.5/4-to-1 and are getting almost 7-to-1 in position with your clean nut flush outs and almost guaranteed clean gutshot outs. I advise calling and getting there.
  • Claire said

    If he has a bet sizing tell (which you think he does) and only bet $25 on the flop and the other players only called, just bluff raise the flop with your hand if you want to bluff
    Ya, I was kind of kicking myself for not raising the flop. V1 folded 88 face-up on the turn and V2 caught 2P: 4s & 7s. What's your flop sizing preference?
  • wendy weissman said

    I think stacks need to be deeper than 150 bbs to consider a semibluff raise on the turn. If villain is a weaker player and you have pos and he checks to you and no one is short I think you can semi bluff the turn and even make an underbluff on the river..

    ww
    How deep? 1 or 2 pot sized bet?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    San Hoser said
    wendy weissman said

    I think stacks need to be deeper than 150 bbs to consider a semibluff raise on the turn. If villain is a weaker player and you have pos and he checks to you and no one is short I think you can semi bluff the turn and even make an underbluff on the river..

    ww
    How deep? 1 or 2 pot sized bet?
    more the merrier. but spr of 1 way way too short. some players will just get it in. more than 2 and you have a chance to get them to fold I think.

    ww
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    San Hoser said
    wendy weissman said

    I think stacks need to be deeper than 150 bbs to consider a semibluff raise on the turn. If villain is a weaker player and you have pos and he checks to you and no one is short I think you can semi bluff the turn and even make an underbluff on the river..

    ww
    How deep? 1 or 2 pot sized bet?
    I think that with the tiny bet facing you, the dominant strategy here will be to call. As a point of reference, you need 26% fold equity on a shove to match the EV of calling. That is assuming that you win absolutely no money when you hit which I think is unlikely in most circumstances since you have position on two players and your hand is well disguised.
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    I agree that his line looks very weak. Having said that I have seen Villains do this and then bomb the turn. In this case his turn bet is even weaker, but could represent a set. Once he picked up a couple of callers on the flop you would suspect a much larger bet here.

    Having said that, I think your play is on the Flop if you want to semi-bluff with a plan to continue on the Turn if you picked up more outs. I am not sure that I would semi-bluff there though. Your hand is being played pretty much face up. Either it is TPGK or a draw like what you have - A3, 35, 56 etc. I probably call the flop and call the river and evaluate whether or not I bluff the river in position.
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    I am curious what the villain's response was
  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    San Hoser said

    Ya, I was kind of kicking myself for not raising the flop. V1 folded 88 face-up on the turn and V2 caught 2P: 4s & 7s. What's your flop sizing preference?
    I probably would have made it about 120 on the flop. Making it 80-85 is a bit too small because anyone who called in the middle has excellent odds to continue with a draw

    Your hand is a bit too weak to float the flop because it's multi-way, and you have to get everybody to fold, not just the PFR. Heads up floating is fine.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    San Hoser, I like your thinking and the reasoning you gave for your turn shove. The description of V1 makes this move a great idea, since he's the perfect opponent to raise his turn bets as a semibluff. As others have said, the stack sizes are not ideal here, since Jx combos and other made hands are probably calling too often. If you had something like 200 more behind, it would definitely help. All in all, I think your line still has merit, though, and should definitely be +EV. But due to the great odds you get, just flatcalling the turn is probably superior here.
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