I played this hand last night. I\'d be interested in your thoughts on semi-bluffing the turn in this spot. The pot was big, and I thought the pre-flop raisers line could be weak (or perhaps strong if he flopped a set) and the other villain in the hand wasn\'t showing any strength. I know semi-bluffing in multi-way pots is risky, but I decided to shove the turn to attempt to get some fold equity rather than draw and potentially fold on the river. I have between 23% and 33% pot equity if called and the pot ends up HU (0verpairs, sets, 2p, TP), so I\'ll need 27% to 17% fold equity. I\'m probably f\'ed if both call.
1/2 200 max (10 handed). Effective stacks are 300.
V1: Aggressive with his better hands, but limps a lot of suited and connected trash from all positions. He\'s raising suited aces (I saw him raise A4s in EP),AT+,KTs+,KJ+, QJ,QJs,JTs,pairs (i observed 66), some suited connectors (98s observed). Based on 4 hours of history, I don\'t think his raising range is any tighter in the blinds than in other positions. He seems to utilize bet fold lines quite a bit. He\'s also c-betting just about every flop (they\'re often multi-way in this game), he seems to follow up with a 2nd barrel quite a bit too.
V2: Joined from a broken game 2 orbits ago. He\'s raised a few hands and limped a bunch.
My image. Not too bad, I haven\'t gotten out of line and I\'m up. But I did show a bluff earlier that V1 but not V2 observed.
Preflop: 5 limpers, hero over limps Ad3d OTB. SB completes, V1 raises to 15 in the BB. all call.
Flop ($120): J24 one diamond.
PFR bets $25, 2 callers plus the hero. Based on previous hands where he had an over pair or TPGK, I\'m expecting him to bet closer to half pot. I think he either flopped a set, has JTs, an under pair, A7s, 87s, 76s or unpaired overs. The other callers either have a weak J, 4, 7, or maybe a GS. I actually thought about bumping up the flop to $80 or $85, but with 3 other callers I passed.
Turn: ($220): 7d
PFR bets $45, one fold, V2 calls. With a 2 flush on board I\'d expect a larger bet from a monster hands like a set or two pair, and also from an overpair, or TPGK, so I don\'t think 7d improves anyone but me, and V2 isn\'t showing much strength: maybe a weak jack? Hero shoves for $225 into a pot of $310.