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Top pair top kicker nut flush draw..

ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
I am stuck a lot. In my first hour and a half I have lost 4 consecutive all ins. 3 flips when I was ahead and got outdrawn and one 75% hand where I flopped top two against tptk and he got runner runner full house.. I move to a different game and have been playing the smaller game for hours and not getting anything to play. I got one hand where I doubled up against a player who I knew had a bigger pair.. Then I drift down.. I have about 500 at the start of this hand and one player has me covered and one player has around 400..

about a round earlier I bet all three streets on a 227TT board against tight old guy and he paid me off when I had KK..

The fish at the table limped utg..I raise to 25 tight older guy next to me doesnt see that I raise and calls with 5 blue chips (1 dollar chips). He then notices hesitates for a second then calls my raise.. Fish calls too. I have AQ spades...

Flop Q 45 two spades..

fish checks I bet 50.. old guy calls.

Turn 5 clubs.. I bet 80.. old guy raises to 160.. I look over and he has about 115 left..

What do you think he has and what do you think I should do?

Wendy

Comments

  • I hate playing when I am stuck for a few buyins and I would typically leave once I get tagged for the third one, but this is especially hard to do when it happens within the first hour and a half and you are still fresh and wanting to play. If I continued on under these circumstances, I would be looking for warning signs that it was affecting my play and either leave or take a long break if it was.

    Once old guy minraises the turn there is 415 on the pot, so you are getting over 5 to 1 on a call. Unless he turned a full house or quads your queens up are way ahead, unless he has a 5 without a full house, in which case you definitely have pot odds to at least call. Since he was just going to call before he saw your raise KK and AA are pretty unlikely. If he is getting froggy with a flush draw he is pretty much drawing dead and if he is drawing to a straight you are a huge favorite. He could also have a hand like QJ or KQ in which case you are way ahead but lose to a nonspade J or K on the river that makes his bigger two pair.

    The way I see it the real decision here is between a call and a shove, and since he only has 115 behind and could have hands you are ahead of that he may not call a river bet with if he misses (such as a flush or straight draw) I would probably go ahead and shove, since there would be no river cards I could possibly fold to at that point anyway. If he does have 44 or 55 or 45 that is pretty disgusting but that's life. If that does happen after losing four buyins earlier I would definitely want to call it a night and come back another day.

    As always I look forward to seeing if Bart would have played this differently, but I do think the fact that he only has 115 behind after he minraised your turn bet makes the decision more straightforward.
  • shmedshmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I think this is pretty read-dependent and I'm going off of of your read that he's a tight old-guy and that he never raised you with what I presume to be a pocket pair on the previous hand (and the fact that you showed you had the goods on a triple barrel should discourage him from thinking you are a bluffer).

    Given this, I would probably fold in this spot. His initial call on the flop suggests a wider range and definitely 5x incl 45, 44, 55 could be in his range for this. If he's truly tight, I doubt he raises you with just a Q, esp since he couldn't also have a FD since you have the Qs (and there are some Qs that beat you, the unlikely Q4 and Q5). So what is he reraising with -- I doubt a SD or FD reraises on a paired board unless he's making a positional bluff (and this is where the read comes in).

    Obviously you are drawing nearly dead (or perhaps to 2 Qs) if he has a FH -- if he has 5x you have 23% equity, better than the 16% you need to call. But when you add the possible FHs into his range it's much closer.

    So I like a bet/fold here. What I would have done differently is to bet more on the turn. You bet $80 into a $175 pot, which complicates the situation -- if he was a trickier player it might invite a bluff raise seeing this as a blocking bet. This play usually doesn't min-raise however, and combined with your description, I discount that from this player. But if you had bet say $130-150, then you are announcing that he needs to play for stacks, and it's an easier and clearer bet/fold. The advantage of the smaller bet is that yes, you may be able to get middle pocket pairs e.g. 8s etc to stay in, but he has a wide range and depending on how you sized the previous hand, he might call a bigger bet with these hands too. Betting more also allows you to get his whole stack in the river if he's calling you down again with lighter than top pair.

    But as played, I make a tough bet/fold on the turn.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I dont mind the size of the bets.. He is shorter than I am and I could still get it all in by the river.. I wanted to balance the size of the bet with the strength of what I thought he had..

    On the flop I thought his range was 22-99, 67 suited, 78 suited, A2-A3 suited (exept spades of course), 45 suited, ... since he limped then called he really cant have a bigger pair since he was always raising to like 30 with his premium hands.. He could also have something like Kx spades, JT x spades, maybe 9T spades, etc...

    Also when I bet three streets with the KK.. he just called me on the turn 227T board.. So when he raises me here.. I am thinking he is alot stronger... Bart talks alot about players tendencies on the turn .. And this is straight from the play book.

    So what does a min raise on the turn with a wet board by a tight player who has almost no money left? This player is rudamentarily trying to putting me on a range but is basically betting the strength of his own hand...

    Wendy
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Heisenberg said

    I hate playing when I am stuck for a few buyins and I would typically leave once I get tagged for the third one, but this is especially hard to do when it happens within the first hour and a half and you are still fresh and wanting to play. If I continued on under these circumstances, I would be looking for warning signs that it was affecting my play and either leave or take a long break if it was..

    yeah it was rather brutal.. I went and was planning on playing the 2-5 game but there wasnt a seat so I saw a couple of really bad players at the 5/5 and there was an open seat..

    Hand 1.. Less than one round in.. Short stack with about 275 total in stack limps utg. I see KK raise to 25 two players behind me call..utg calls..

    Flop 5 7 8 two dias.. utg leads out 55.. I think he could have pair with straight draw .. pair of 99s or Ts.. I havent played with him before.. He could also have combo draw.. but he is pretty short.. I raise to 130.. players behind fold.. utg shoves.. I call..

    Turn A hearts. River 2 dias.. He flips over Q6 dias.. for gutshot and flush draw..

    Hand 2 .. new player to table that at 2-5 100-300 plays very nitty.. he buys in for 1000. I have about 400.. He is not protecting his cards and I can see he has QJ.. I know they are both red, I am not sure if they are both hearts. I have A8 .. He raises to 15.. I iso him in pos to 50.. he snap calls..

    Flop 10 6 2 two hearts.. He checks I bet 70.. he makes it 210.. guess he has QJ hearts.. I am about 50/50 and have almost 1/3 of my stack in there.. I call.. he hits Q on river.. I guess I could have checked the flop but I have played with him before and he hasnt check raised a draw before..

    Hand 3.. UTG player is a uber loose player who raises more than 75% of the hands he opens.. He is a fish big time.. he has me covered.. I have 500.. I call in cutoff or button with QJ hearts.. three other players.

    Flop QJ9 two dias.. great.. I flop top two.. he can have almost anything here.. He bets 75.. I make it 200.... he thinks for about 10 seconds and shoves.. I call.. He flips over AQ.. awesome I have him!..

    Turn A
    River A..

    I took a break.. and decided to play the 100-300 game as I originally intended.. I got it all in preflop vs a normal nitty player on tilt raising most hands that were limped with a very very wide range.. he was on my direct left.. I was in sb he was in bb.. limped 5 ways I call.. he raises to 30.. everyone calls.. I ship it for about 210 with AK.. he folds and guy around back calls me with 88 and I brick out. really gross run..

    The hand above took play almost 5 hours later.. so I had no immediate tilt and had been card dead with the exception of setting a gal with an overpair and doubleing up. I had been treading water ever since..
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I like your line, and I think the turn spot sucks because you get such great odds (his minraise is proof enough that he is a pretty weak player), but are ahead almost never. If an old, tight and passive guy raises you, alarm bells should ring in your head. I'd squarely put him on 5x hands and boats, and not much else. I doubt he'll do it with a combo draw or KQ type hand! If this is correct, a shove will definitely be the worst option.

    Against a boat, you have either one or two outs. Let's discount QQ and Q5 somewhat for sake of simplicity, and you have around 4% equity.
    If he has trips, you have 10 outs, meaning around 22% equity. If we also assume that he will never fold on the river, we basically have to pay 80 in order to win 530 (pot + his remaining 115). So, we need approx. 13% euity. Consequently, we should call if his range consists of trips at least 50% or more [ (22% + 4%)/2 = 13%].

    However, there's one problem which I neglected so far. When we do hit the flush, we don't know if we are good, so we will make the mistake of paying off his full house some of the time, which will cost us another 115. I am sure it is possible to also calculate how that will change the breakeven percentage, but I will just estimate that he has to have trips around 60-65% of the time to make the call profitable. Do you agree with that?
  • Fish FryerFish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    wendy weissman said

    I am stuck a lot. In my first hour and a half I have lost 4 consecutive all ins. 3 flips when I was ahead and got outdrawn and one 75% hand where I flopped top two against tptk and he got runner runner full house.. I move to a different game and have been playing the smaller game for hours and not getting anything to play. I got one hand where I doubled up against a player who I knew had a bigger pair.. Then I drift down.. I have about 500 at the start of this hand and one player has me covered and one player has around 400..

    about a round earlier I bet all three streets on a 227TT board against tight old guy and he paid me off when I had KK..

    The fish at the table limped utg..I raise to 25 tight older guy next to me doesnt see that I raise and calls with 5 blue chips (1 dollar chips). He then notices hesitates for a second then calls my raise.. Fish calls too. I have AQ spades...

    Flop Q 45 two spades..

    fish checks I bet 50.. old guy calls.

    Turn 5 clubs.. I bet 80.. old guy raises to 160.. I look over and he has about 115 left..

    What do you think he has and what do you think I should do?

    Wendy
    Although it might be too conservative, I am ok with folding here. In the local games here, I rarely see "tight old guys" making moves. I'm not really a fan of hitting one of my outs and still not being good, which could be the case here. I also think a large segment of the player pool will see the turn if they hit any part of the flop, which doesn't bode well.
  • shmedshmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I think you also have to consider whether the old tight man would call flop in position with just a single 5 (and hit trips on the turn). Many tight players wouldn't -- however per your previous KK example, he may be a passive calling station as well, which would argue more that he would.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Wendy, what were your thoughts on the turn (first hand example with AQ)? How did you play it from there, and why?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    Wendy, what were your thoughts on the turn (first hand example with AQ)? How did you play it from there, and why?
    When he raised me the first thing I did was ask how much. I wanted to make sure it was a MIN raise.. Then I looked over at his stack..115 left..I knew he had at least a full house.. I paused to just let it sink in that after getting such a nice flop I would have to fold.. So I said

    "Your 4s full is good" and folded.. He flipped over pocket 5s. Couldnt believe I wouldnt call the raise.. Had he raised the flop we would have gotten it all in and I would have lost my stack..

    Wendy
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    wendy weissman said
    I knew he had at least a full house..
    Wendy
    Are you serious? You don't think he would raise with trips, like A5 or 65 type hands??
    And you are also sure that he wouldn't raise a set on the flop?
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Awesome read, of course! Sorry, forgot to mention that you played the hand great! Just wondering how you are that confident about your read.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    So I was very confident of my read on the turn.. I waited a bit for two reasons.. 1) I just wanted to run through everything again 2) I didnt want it to look like it was an easy decision 3) to be consistent with other times when I do have a real decision to make.

    So here was my thought process of his range through the whole hand

    Preflop: he overcalled preflop then realized I raised.. hesitated and called. Cant be a big pair or big Abroadway cards.. he was raising to 30 with those..more likely pair 22-99s, small suited connectors say up to QJ and Ax suited..

    Flop: So he calls my bet on a 45 Q with two spade board.. So he is probably folding 22 & 33.. I think he would peel with 66-99, he can have one combo of 67 spades, one combo each of A2 and A3 of dias, clubs and hearts..Kx of spades some, QJ, QT, Q9 , 4s, 5s 45 and some 67 and 78 os cards.. So a little narrower..

    Turn: This is the money card.. 4 5 Q 5 .. I bet 80 and now he min raises me. I see he has almost no money left and if he had a hand like A5 with the flush draw on the board still wouldnt he be aftraid of that? But his bet says he isnt afraid of the flush. Furthermore he knows I am willing to tripple barrel on a scary board so I think slowplaying a two pair+ hand on flop is completely reasonable. Also he hasnt raised the turn yet since he sat down at the game. He is more passive when not preflop raiser. I had also seen him make rather big bets (overpot) when it seemed like he wanted to "protect" from something. So given all of this information it sucked but he just couldnt have anything but a monster and I was drawing to two Qs.. I wasnt getting the right price and I folded.. I mean why would a tight player min raise on this board with the pot already 300 ? This just screams strength to me. I loved telling him he had 4s full and him feeling it necessarily to put me in my place by showing quads.. lol. relatively speaking they are the same hand..

    Wendy
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Oh forgot to mention.. I DIDNT show him what I had.. Its really really hard not to do this but I never wanted this player to ever know how good I am. I have played with him a bit before and I want him to keep playing horrible so I can play perfectly against him.

    Wendy
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    wendy weissman said

    So I was very confident of my read on the turn.. I waited a bit for two reasons.. 1) I just wanted to run through everything again 2) I didnt want it to look like it was an easy decision 3) to be consistent with other times when I do have a real decision to make.

    So here was my thought process of his range through the whole hand

    Preflop: he overcalled preflop then realized I raised.. hesitated and called. Cant be a big pair or big Abroadway cards.. he was raising to 30 with those..more likely pair 22-99s, small suited connectors say up to QJ and Ax suited..

    Flop: So he calls my bet on a 45 Q with two spade board.. So he is probably folding 22 & 33.. I think he would peel with 66-99, he can have one combo of 67 spades, one combo each of A2 and A3 of dias, clubs and hearts..Kx of spades some, QJ, QT, Q9 , 4s, 5s 45 and some 67 and 78 os cards.. So a little narrower..

    Turn: This is the money card.. 4 5 Q 5 .. I bet 80 and now he min raises me. I see he has almost no money left and if he had a hand like A5 with the flush draw on the board still wouldnt he be aftraid of that? But his bet says he isnt afraid of the flush. Furthermore he knows I am willing to tripple barrel on a scary board so I think slowplaying a two pair+ hand on flop is completely reasonable. Also he hasnt raised the turn yet since he sat down at the game. He is more passive when not preflop raiser. I had also seen him make rather big bets (overpot) when it seemed like he wanted to "protect" from something. So given all of this information it sucked but he just couldnt have anything but a monster and I was drawing to two Qs.. I wasnt getting the right price and I folded.. I mean why would a tight player min raise on this board with the pot already 300 ? This just screams strength to me. I loved telling him he had 4s full and him feeling it necessarily to put me in my place by showing quads.. lol. relatively speaking they are the same hand..

    Wendy
    very impressive thought process!
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Ty tyvm.. I hope I can continue to improve in my reading skills !.. Had I not three barrelled him earlier my read would not have been as accurate.. so interesting that betting thin on THAT river helped so much later on .. So I got extra value on the hand I was ahead and lost the min on the hand I wasn't..Can't do much better than that.. Also making this read even after having been so stuck is also something I am most proud of !

    Wendy
  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    I thot I posted in this thread yesterday, but I guess it didn't go thru.

    What I said was, old guy min raises the turn -- what is his thought process? He wants hero to call. Therefore do the opposite. Obv we r getting it in if he raises the flop, but he is so comfortable with his hand , he can wait and then min raise the turn. So transparent.

    Join me in my hatred for the mirage that is........AQ!
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Great analysis Wendy. I have a question for you. Would you have made the same analysis and fold if your hand was say QQ, or an overpair to the board - KK, AA? The reason I ask, is because we are folding a one pair hand here which should be easier for us to fold versus 2 pair+. In an earlier post, I believe you said had he raised you on the flop you would have gotten all the money in.

    By 2 pair+, I am not referring to where you have a pair and the paired board.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Brudre21 said

    Great analysis Wendy. I have a question for you. Would you have made the same analysis and fold if your hand was say QQ, or an overpair to the board - KK, AA? The reason I ask, is because we are folding a one pair hand here which should be easier for us to fold versus 2 pair+. In an earlier post, I believe you said had he raised you on the flop you would have gotten all the money in.

    By 2 pair+, I am not referring to where you have a pair and the paired board.
    If I had QQ I am obviously NOT folding.. There I have the second nuts its just a cooler.. Now with AA or KK its the same as AQ.. If he makes the same play I would fold.. He is repping a boat so overpair is just as bad as top pair.

    after he made quads he really should have just called me..I would have bet again on the river.. So dumb! He is like.. I will min raise and she will call me because EVERYONE calls the min raise..If he shoves the flop I call and I might even call if he shoved the turn too..

    Wendy
  • JerseyJayJerseyJay Posts: 181Subscriber
    Nice hand wendy. Thx. Well played.
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