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Should I fold or raise??? Turning my hand into a bluff..

MylesBergMylesBerg Posts: 24Subscriber
edited April 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I would like people's feedback as to the best play in a $2000 pot I played last night...

Effective stacks are $2100 (villain has me covered) and I am in late position at a 7-handed table. We're playing 5-5 no limit, and I have 7h10h. A solid, thinking player (villain with $2100+) raises in 5th position, and I call, as well as two players in position 2 & 3 (pot=$110ish). Flop is 5s6h8h. Pre-flop raiser c-bets $80 into $110, and I raise to $225; he calls and the other players fold. Turn is the Jh, making the board 5s6h8hJh. Pre-flop raiser checks, I bet $300, he thinks for 30-secs and calls; pot=$1160. River comes the Kh. Pre-flop raiser bets $520 into $1160, making the pot $1680, $525 to call. I am getting 3.2/1 pot odds, so I have to be good 24% of the time to call.

When I worked through the hand, I put him on an overpair post flop after he c-bet and called my raise. When I made my flush, I was even more certain he had an overpair QQ, KK, or AA with a heart to call my turn bet. When the river brought the K-hearts and he bet into me, I felt like he had either QQ or AA with a heart, leaning toward QQ since he didn't bet larger on the river.

My question is: If I put him on QQ, can I shove allin on the river and hope he'll fold? Or should I just fold? If I moved allin on the river, the pot would have been $3255, $1100 for him to call.


  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    It would be nice to know prior info on the V. Is he nitty, can he hand read, is he loose etc. I am probably not turning my hand into a bluff here without a solid read. You would have to specifically put him on QQh to do this and that is so very tough to do because your flipping for your stack.

    As played I'm folding.

    Also I think you could have bet the turn a little harder to protect your ten high flush, as it is very vulnerable. I might have bet something closer to pot.
  • MylesBergMylesBerg Posts: 24Subscriber
    Villian is a solid, thinking player, who will make tough calls. We have a lot of history, and he knows I'm a solid, tag, who can make strong plays.

    I'm pretty sure my read was very accurate, given the pre flop, post flop, and turn play. I actually wanted him to call the turn, rather than 'protect' my hand by betting closer to pot, since he only has 10 outs if he has a set (which is very unlikely), or 7 outs if he has an overpair with a heart. 7 outs into 45 unseen cards is only 15% equity on his part.

    I do agree, however, it's probably just a fold on the river since he could have AxAh, but I thought he would be larger on the river if he had that hand.

    It turned out he did have QxQh by the way.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I think he has KK or AA w hearts or nut flush. That line is way strong. I am just folding. And if he shows a bluff i know not to call good players w junk hands. :oops:

  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    I guess the second part of the equation then becomes whether or not if you bluff the river assuming he has the Qh is will fold in that spot placing you on the Kh or Ah?
  • daniel9861daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    Can't profitably bluff river if his range on the river is only AhA and QhQ.
  • MylesBergMylesBerg Posts: 24Subscriber
    Agreed. Thanks for the feedback. Hammah-Dont think he ever has KK in this spot, but I agree that it's a fold.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    MylesBerg wrote:
    Agreed. Thanks for the feedback. Hammah-Dont think he ever has KK in this spot, but I agree that it's a fold.

    AA is equivalent.. doesnt really matter.. when he leads that river after calling its just a strong line its a spew to try and get him off it..

  • MylesBergMylesBerg Posts: 24Subscriber
    Not sure it's a spew if I can put him on QQ pretty accurately, which I did at the time. If I had $1500 or more, I'm very certain he will fold to a raise. For sure, it's a high variance play that I think very, very few players are capable of making.
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