This is my first strategy post on SOP so go easy on me. Hopefully the same format I use on 2+2 is understandable to you guys.
Game is 1/2 NL $300 max. I was on a really big downswing and I found some really good 1/2 games in my area which really got my confidence back and are actually almost as profitable as the 2/5 game I used to play.
Villain ($400) is a 30's asian guy. Not super aggro, but I've seen him took a lot of stabs at pots when checked to him. Haven't seen him make a lot of raises postflop at all. He also bought in for less - he had about $100 for a while and then recently chipped up pretty nicely.
Hero ($600) Running pretty well - hit a set on the turn with an overpair (luckily) and got it in vs a guy who had flopped bottom set and was trying to slowplay. I also got it in vs a shortish stack with AA vs something he didn't show preflop and won. So I should have a decent image. For about an hour before this I was treading water - I kept getting awful cbetting flops and multiway action and had to c/f.
Hero (MP) Kd Td raises to $10
Villain (Button) calls
flop: 9d 6d 4c.
Hero bets 17, button calls, bb folds
Turn: 9d 6d 4c 7d
Hero bets 40, villain raises to $95, hero calls
Villain counts out more chips like he's going to raise 100 on top and then makes it 55 more.
River: 9d 6d 4c 7d 2s
Thoughts on turn: I could raise back but there is still like 300 behind and looking at the distribution of diamonds he might play any Ax suited but only QJdd, Q8dd, J8dd, or like 54dd make flushes that I beat. He might think I have an overpair and be raising a hand like 2 pair or a straight. I think sets are unlikely because he'd probably raise the flop. I thought if I bet/3b large he might correctly think I have a flush and fold 2 pair or maybe even a straight. I don't know this - but he's chipped up at least $300 and he might just sigh/fold.
What do you think of calling turn and leading river for like $125? If i get shoved on he really should have the nuts, and if he has a straight/2pr/set he probably calls. Alternatively i could c/c (or check/shove) because he probably still value bets sets, flushes, straights etc.
On the other hand, a lot of rec players might decide the pot is "big enough" and check back something as strong as a straight or a set here because as Bart says they know they can't fold if they get check/shipped on, so they just check it back instead of bet/folding.
Let me know what you think about bet/3betting turn vs bet/calling turn and then leading river vs bet/calling flop and c/c river.
Also, if I was to bet/3b turn and got shipped on, this has to be a sick fold right?