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Bet/call turn, bet/fold river spot?

PokerIsFrustratingPokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
This is my first strategy post on SOP so go easy on me. Hopefully the same format I use on 2+2 is understandable to you guys.

Game is 1/2 NL $300 max. I was on a really big downswing and I found some really good 1/2 games in my area which really got my confidence back and are actually almost as profitable as the 2/5 game I used to play.

Villain ($400) is a 30's asian guy. Not super aggro, but I've seen him took a lot of stabs at pots when checked to him. Haven't seen him make a lot of raises postflop at all. He also bought in for less - he had about $100 for a while and then recently chipped up pretty nicely.

Hero ($600) Running pretty well - hit a set on the turn with an overpair (luckily) and got it in vs a guy who had flopped bottom set and was trying to slowplay. I also got it in vs a shortish stack with AA vs something he didn't show preflop and won. So I should have a decent image. For about an hour before this I was treading water - I kept getting awful cbetting flops and multiway action and had to c/f.

Hero (MP) Kd Td raises to $10
Villain (Button) calls
BB calls

(30)
flop: 9d 6d 4c.
Hero bets 17, button calls, bb folds

(62)
Turn: 9d 6d 4c 7d
Hero bets 40, villain raises to $95, hero calls

Villain counts out more chips like he's going to raise 100 on top and then makes it 55 more.

(252)
River: 9d 6d 4c 7d 2s
Hero?

Thoughts on turn: I could raise back but there is still like 300 behind and looking at the distribution of diamonds he might play any Ax suited but only QJdd, Q8dd, J8dd, or like 54dd make flushes that I beat. He might think I have an overpair and be raising a hand like 2 pair or a straight. I think sets are unlikely because he'd probably raise the flop. I thought if I bet/3b large he might correctly think I have a flush and fold 2 pair or maybe even a straight. I don't know this - but he's chipped up at least $300 and he might just sigh/fold.

What do you think of calling turn and leading river for like $125? If i get shoved on he really should have the nuts, and if he has a straight/2pr/set he probably calls. Alternatively i could c/c (or check/shove) because he probably still value bets sets, flushes, straights etc.

On the other hand, a lot of rec players might decide the pot is "big enough" and check back something as strong as a straight or a set here because as Bart says they know they can't fold if they get check/shipped on, so they just check it back instead of bet/folding.

Let me know what you think about bet/3betting turn vs bet/calling turn and then leading river vs bet/calling flop and c/c river.

Also, if I was to bet/3b turn and got shipped on, this has to be a sick fold right?
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Comments

  • I'm looking forward to Bart's reply but here is how I see it. In addition to Ax suited he also has a lot of Ax offsuit w/ A of diamonds in his range along with the other hands you mentioned. A lot of people get froggy with an ace that matches three suited cards on the board because they know that if you have a flush you don't have the nut flush. By the time you call his turn raise you already have nearly a third of the effective stacks in the pot and barely over a pot-sized raise left (he has about 275 behind with 252 in the pot.)

    If you have a read that he wouldn't raise the turn without the nut flush it would make sense to fold, but otherwise I would just shove over the top and if he has the nut flush so be it. But I don't like the call if it puts a third of the effective stacks in without knowing where I am at, and I think you will get enough action from straights/two pair/lower flush/naked Ad/Ad with a pair hands to make a shove profitable. I don't like the call (might as well shove) and I don't like a smaller raise (might as well shove) and I typically don't like folding here so I say shove and see what happens.
  • JseeleyJseeley Posts: 48Member
    I think you played the hand alright till the turn. I may have bet a little more on flop vs 2 villains.

    Villain has already put in $122 and has shown aggressive action. He is almost never folding unless this is air.
    Put him in for the rest of his stack. I guarentee he will call off with any flush. Maybe even a 53 with a diamond. Ive seen people call at this level with JJ, QQ etc. You are leaving so much value on the table. If he has Axs you still played it right.

    Waiting till river just gives him a chance to fold. Scare cards could come or he realize he may be behind once you lead.

    As played put him in, he has less than a PSB.
  • JseeleyJseeley Posts: 48Member
    Oh and you can never bet fold river here. Not deep enough. Once you are at river villain has less than PSB.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Welcome to the forums!

    This is definitely an interesting hand.

    Nut Flush and Straight Flush: 8 combos

    Non Nut Flush Combos: Anywhere from 5 to 12 combos depending on his calling range preflop.

    If villain is loose pre and would raise all flushes, two pairs, sets, straights then this is an easy 3b/call on the turn.

    However, this villain seems to be a typical lose passive player.

    Shipping turn is too strong imo and it might be big enough to where villain hero folds 45dd or worse some percent of the time.

    I prefer to call turn and bet/fold river here.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Jseeley said
    Put him in for the rest of his stack. I guarentee he will call off with any flush. Maybe even a 53 with a diamond. Ive seen people call at this level with JJ, QQ etc. You are leaving so much value on the table. If he has Axs you still played it right.
    I don't think villain ever has JJ or QQ here. From my experience if they are the type to flat these hands preflop they are raising this flop near 100% of the time.

    I agree with you that he will get in all flush combos but how often is he raising non nut flushes? I've seen a lot of older players just call turn with weak flushes here afraid of higher flushes. Depending on his calling range pre he could have as many if not more nut flush combos than non nut flush combos. Couple that with the fact that he may play non nut flushes passively I think shoving turn and playing a 400+ bb pot in this spot may be spewing money.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Jseeley said

    Oh and you can never bet fold river here. Not deep enough. Once you are at river villain has less than PSB.
    I think we can easily b/f here against the right villains. You can't b/f because villain has a PSB left is not always the case. I think there are a lot of situations, especially with older players, where you can do some insane b/f ing and r/fing.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Welcome!

    First of all I think you need to bet more on the flop.. these little bets that people make are just begging to get called light.. go ahead and make a near pot size bet and put pressure on other players who have smaller pairs..Then if a good card comes on the turn that you can barrel you can win the hand without having to make a hand.. Like any broadway card..You bet again and its just really really hard for someone peeling lightly to call you.

    As played when you hit the King high flush I would just go ahead and go all in. Yes villain might have the Ace high flush, yes villain might have the straight flush but your hand is just too strong and so many players will now try to protect their sets and two pairs.. Also villain could easily have a smaller flush. I would not slowplay this hand unless its a nit that wont call your all in. So that aside you want to get paid by the Ax with the A of dias dont wait until river when villain no longer has the draw that they will call off with.

    Wendy
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    First of all, I think the decision if to go with the hand is closer than it appears at first glance. The reason is that there are not a lot of lower flushes left.

    I wouldn't really care about the straight flush at all. As you block the T8 combo, there's only one combo of 85 left, and we don't even know if villain would call with this hand pre. Moreover, we have to guess if he would flat pre with all Axs combos or only the stronger ones, so +\- 1 combo really shouldn't make a significant difference.

    Flop is fine I think.

    What I find peculiar on the turn is the small sizing of his raise. To me, that doesn't look like the naked Ad. With any AdXx hand, villain would like to createe fold equity, right? I interpret this as more as a made hand like sets, straights, two pair. Of course, it might be the nuts, trying to not scare hero. But many villains would try to get more money in with the nuts I think.
    All in all, I'd discount AdXx hands heavily and AdXd hands slightly. Consequently, I'd decide to go with the hand, and try to get more money in on the turn (sets are calling more with one card to come than on the river I think, and he could put you on AdXx yourself on the turn).
    Since an all in push looks pretty strong, I would 3bet to around 270 and either call off or shove the river.
  • eselspieleselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    wendy weissman said

    First of all I think you need to bet more on the flop.. these little bets that people make are just begging to get called light.. go ahead and make a near pot size bet and put pressure on other players who have smaller pairs..Then if a good card comes on the turn that you can barrel you can win the hand without having to make a hand.. Like any broadway card..You bet again and its just really really hard for someone peeling lightly to call you.


    +1
    Regardless of the particular hand, this is important advice to incorporate.
  • whatsyourplay? said Since an all in push looks pretty strong, I would 3bet to around 270 and either call off or shove the river.
    That's reasonable, but since it only leaves about $60 behind, I would just go ahead and shove anyway, since leaving 60 behind when you raise to 270 into a pot that now contains 425 prior to his action it essentially is all-in, and there are a lot of players who are more likely to consider the all-in overbet to be more suspicious than a carefully calculated raise.
  • JseeleyJseeley Posts: 48Member
    Skinnybrown said
    Jseeley said
    Put him in for the rest of his stack. I guarentee he will call off with any flush. Maybe even a 53 with a diamond. Ive seen people call at this level with JJ, QQ etc. You are leaving so much value on the table. If he has Axs you still played it right.
    I don't think villain ever has JJ or QQ here. From my experience if they are the type to flat these hands preflop they are raising this flop near 100% of the time.

    I agree with you that he will get in all flush combos but how often is he raising non nut flushes? I've seen a lot of older players just call turn with weak flushes here afraid of higher flushes. Depending on his calling range pre he could have as many if not more nut flush combos than non nut flush combos. Couple that with the fact that he may play non nut flushes passively I think shoving turn and playing a 400+ bb pot in this spot may be spewing money.

    How can you even make an argument to bet fold river? Please tell me how much you are going to bet on the river, get raised and still fold? Even if you bet 40% and fold to a shove, that would be a HUGE leak. At this level villains value low flushes and even straights here way too much. Villain is not old man coffee, he is ASIAN lol. If you think he is that strong you should fold to the raise on turn. Once you call you are committed IMO.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Jseeley said
    Skinnybrown said
    Jseeley said
    Put him in for the rest of his stack. I guarentee he will call off with any flush. Maybe even a 53 with a diamond. Ive seen people call at this level with JJ, QQ etc. You are leaving so much value on the table. If he has Axs you still played it right.
    I don't think villain ever has JJ or QQ here. From my experience if they are the type to flat these hands preflop they are raising this flop near 100% of the time.

    I agree with you that he will get in all flush combos but how often is he raising non nut flushes? I've seen a lot of older players just call turn with weak flushes here afraid of higher flushes. Depending on his calling range pre he could have as many if not more nut flush combos than non nut flush combos. Couple that with the fact that he may play non nut flushes passively I think shoving turn and playing a 400+ bb pot in this spot may be spewing money.

    How can you even make an argument to bet fold river? Please tell me how much you are going to bet on the river, get raised and still fold? Even if you bet 40% and fold to a shove, that would be a HUGE leak. At this level villains value low flushes and even straights here way too much. Villain is not old man coffee, he is ASIAN lol. If you think he is that strong you should fold to the raise on turn. Once you call you are committed IMO.
    In theory, I could see bet folding $120 on the river if villain:

    1) Is passive and would not always raise low flushes on the turn
    2) Would not overplay a lower flush on the river if we lead
    3) Would only raise the nut flush on the river if lead into

    Based on villain description we can not rule out this is the case and I just wanted to discuss it.

    Everyone realizes there are about equal combinations of better and worse flushes IF villain is playing hands like Q4dd and J4dd and he raises ALL combinations of worse flushes on the turn?

    I'm not saying my line is best I'm just saying it is worth discussion if you actually look at the combinations and saying he is 30 and Asian get the monies in is not going into the hand enough.

    I'm still not convinced auto stacking off is by far and away the best line here.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    and at what point are we not getting all in on the turn?

    300bbs? 400bbs? 500bbs?
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    In this example, we have 200 BB eff. If hero had QdJd, it would be a really shitty spot, since we block a lot of weaker flushes, and there are two higher ones possible.
    With KdTd, I'd say it becomes a really interesting decision around 250-300 BB between either 3betting turn or calling turn, bet-folding river.

    Would love to here Bart's take on this hand, for a) with 200 BB, and b) 300 BB or even deeper.
  • PokerIsFrustratingPokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    wendy weissman said

    Welcome!

    First of all I think you need to bet more on the flop.. these little bets that people make are just begging to get called light.. go ahead and make a near pot size bet and put pressure on other players who have smaller pairs..Then if a good card comes on the turn that you can barrel you can win the hand without having to make a hand.. Like any broadway card..You bet again and its just really really hard for someone peeling lightly to call you.
    I probably should cbet larger, but I tend to keep my cbets somewhere between 1/2 and 2/3 of the pot unless I have a solid value hand or a hand I'm willing to bet/call off with. Also sometimes with drawing hands that I don't want to bet/call off with I'll bet a little less OOP just because villains are so bad with sizing and will often make small raises if they flop sets or something. It's probably a leak.
    What I find peculiar on the turn is the small sizing of his raise. To me, that doesn't look like the naked Ad. With any AdXx hand, villain would like to createe fold equity, right? I interpret this as more as a made hand like sets, straights, two pair. Of course, it might be the nuts, trying to not scare hero. But many villains would try to get more money in with the nuts I think.
    I don't think anyone at the 1/2 level is making a bluff with the naked ace here to try to get me off of a flush. Even maniac 1/2 villains I think are more likely to call unless they have some kind of monster draw, and a 1 card nut flush draw probably isn't big enough. This guy definitely isn't a maniac, and I think there is virtually no chance he's doing this with less than 2 pair here.
  • PokerIsFrustratingPokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Another reason I was thinking about just calling turn and leading river is that I don't think villain HAS to have a flush here. If he just made 2 pair or somehow made a straight he probably thinks he has to be ahead here, because I could easily have Aces or Jacks or something and be betting an overpair. If I 3b back even if he's really bad he'll have to fear a flush, and not just my raise now but a possible river shove for all of his chips. Sets might be different since he has full house outs and probably would call a moderate 3b back. I just don't know if he calls flop and raises turn with a flopped set unless he somehow has pocket 7's.

    If the river bricks, I can set his price to see a showdown. Fish HATE to get bluffed, and my line looks pretty weird so I thought he might pay off in that case.

    I guess as you guys are saying if I take this line I probably lose value against lower flushes. I kind of blanked and didn't count all of the combos during the hand, but I don't think he really has hands like j4dd or q4dd in his range.
  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    PokerIsFrustrating said
    If I 3b back even if he's really bad he'll have to fear a flush, and not just my raise now but a possible river shove for all of his chips.
    This is correct. Yet, even if he's afraid he might be beat, he'll still call with sets, straights and strong two pairs. People do it all the time. Their thinking goes like: "I think you have me here, but I HAVE to call."
    PokerIsFrustrating said
    Sets might be different since he has full house outs and probably would call a moderate 3b back. I just don't know if he calls flop and raises turn with a flopped set unless he somehow has pocket 7's.
    This is a valid point. It makes flopped sets less likely.
    PokerIsFrustrating said
    I guess as you guys are saying if I take this line I probably lose value against lower flushes.
    Right. Plus, you also loose value against other made hands that would call a 3bet on the turn but get scared when a fourth flush card hits or the board pairs (to a lesser extent).
    PokerIsFrustrating said
    ..., but I don't think he really has hands like j4dd or q4dd in his range.
    Agree.
  • PokerIsFrustratingPokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    I got stuck playing some monster sessions and then I got kind of sick so I didn't get to post any updates.

    If anyone is interested in results, I actually bet way too small on the river (I kind of spaced out and missed out on the sizing). Villain tanked for a while and ended up calling and showing pocket 7's, which was a pair on the flop that hit a set on the turn.

    I kind of gave him a reverse free card on the turn which sucks b/c he would have called a 3b and then he'd probably be committed :( Oh well
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    PokerIsFrustrating said

    I got stuck playing some monster sessions and then I got kind of sick so I didn't get to post any updates.

    If anyone is interested in results, I actually bet way too small on the river (I kind of spaced out and missed out on the sizing). Villain tanked for a while and ended up calling and showing pocket 7's, which was a pair on the flop that hit a set on the turn.

    I kind of gave him a reverse free card on the turn which sucks b/c he would have called a 3b and then he'd probably be committed :( Oh well
    Thats why betting more on the flop is so key. had the bet there been bigger, the whole pot would have been bigger-to either get someone off a marginal hand or you to value bet when they have a good second best hand.

    Wendy
  • CashDonkCashDonk Posts: 6Member
    how about checking river? Is that bad?

    Want to do that to get villain to put it in lighter than i think he would if we cram river.

    Or is that a little too much of FPS?!
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