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PLO strategy question

Live 1-2 400 cap game- straddle to 4, I am in middle position with 8810Q single suited and limp for 4 (game recently opened, has not been one three bet, typically pots are limped then everyone calls any raise) guy on button raises to 25 and gets 4 callers.
Flop 238 rainbow...first two check now what is my move? button I'm 90% certain has AA from playing with him extensively and live read on his raise(he almost never raises)
1) bet pot to discourage callers(button has about $110 left, Position one has me covered and other 2 are shorter)
2) check and assume button (probable AA will bet all in and re-raise if any callers)


  • chilidogchilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Just lead out strong. You can't assume AAxx will cbet into 5 people and you'd hate to give a free card to a gutter/oesd/overpair draw. Though it doesn't look scary now, the board will most likely be scary for three 8s after 2 more cards.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Unlike holdem..slowplaying a set in PLO can cost you a bundle. You need to just bet ..and I would bet close to pot.. You never know AAxx guy just might spaz and ship it and you will get his stack most of the time. The nuts change in PLO so much that although I dont play PLO you need to charge people for their draws because they ARE likely out there..

    Another player could have a wheel draw or wrap with a backdoor flush and you would be very surprised what their equity is. Its ALOT more than you would think. Stove it ..

  • whatsyourplay?whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    stack sizes?

    how likely is it that the original raiser will cbet this dry board? Lots of bad players (especially hold'em players) will cbet here all day, so if you are rather sure he will, I'd check with the intention of raising. If it's not so likely he will cbet, I prefer to bet pretty large yourself, and bet all turns (other than an Ace).
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    There are many situations where I would agree with Wendy. However in this hand, stack sizes are such that you are in the perfect position to gamble a bit and check. The pre-flop raiser on the button has less than one pot back and given your strong read that he has AA a *ton* here, he will almost always (barring reads to the contrary) just jam in the rest of his money on a board that looks so dry. Whenever he bets (as he frequently will) you have hit an equity bonanza since:

    1. You have the current nuts which on this board is guaranteed to have more than your fair share of pot equity no matter what combination of cards are held by the other 4 players.
    2. You have the best relative position on the almost pot-sized shove and will almost always be able to re-shove (or at least almost re-shove), trapping anyone who calls the button's bet into either folding their hand add $110 of dead money to the pot or calling with a worse hand, creating a giant pot from which you stand to profit significantly.

    For example, the worst (and most absurd) situation for your hand that I can think of off the top of my head is the button shoving and ending up going 4 ways against:
    • AAxx for the button
    • 3456 (pair + top wrap)
    • 2233 (bottom two sets)
    • 79TJ (best backdoor straight draw that does not interfere with the wrap and does not collide a ton with your hand)

    Even in this situation where you have almost no live outs to fill up and are up against a combination of hands that have the best possible equity against you, you are still more than 26% to win in a 5 way all-in pot and are making a lot of money.

    You didn't mention how big the other stacks are apart from giving their relative size. In this particular hand it is likely that you will be able to shove over any calls/raises, but in general it is very important to give at least approximate stack sizes for the relevant players in the hand.

    This hand would be much tricker if everyone had deep stacks. If that were the case, then the button would check behind more of his range (since most aces play horribly on this board even when they happen to have decent equity against the field) and you would need to start constructing a good range with which to lead into the pre-flop raiser, knowing that you will have to play several more streets with a hand whose equity will drop on a ton of turn cards and that can't be the nuts on the river without improving.
  • whatsyourplay? said

    stack sizes?
    pos1 covers
    pos2 100
    hero 250
    pos4 300
    pos5 100

    how likely is it that the original raiser will cbet this dry board?
    Lots of bad players (especially hold'em players) will cbet here all day, so if you are rather sure he will,- I'd check with the intention of raising. If it's not so likely he will cbet, I prefer to bet pretty large yourself, and bet all turns (other than an Ace).
    Action: all check to button
    Pos5- I assumed correctly he would c bet every time-though he curiously bet 45 of 100 stack
    Pos1- call
    Pos2 fold
    hero-rasie 230 allin
    pos4 fold
    pos5 calls 55 more AAxx (didnt show)
    pos1 calls 230 with 245x
  • regfishregfish Posts: 34Member
    While it would be a great spot to check if you were confident that the preflop raiser would cbet a high percent of the time, I just don't think that you can be that confident (i'd say you would have to be around 90% sure he would bet). Letting the flop check through is a disaster for reasons already stated.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    regfish, I think your concern is more valid when stacks are deeper. If we assume that the button has AA, can you really envision him checking when he has $110 and the pot is already $125? Old nitty guys here (especially if they come from a NLHE background) will almost always bet to "protect" their hand here and then you would get the sweet series of events that I outlined in my post.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Note also that in this situation, the most likely hands to continue collide with each other in a pretty major way which is great for you. In the particular hand, the button is drawing essentially dead and the other caller is drawing only to 6 outs (due to 2 aces being gone from the deck).
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