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Analyzing Results - Easy Math Question for Bart

aaronaaron Posts: 498Subscriber
Simple question but my brain is fried and I want to make sure I'm doing this correctly. If I want to analyze how I'm running after a session and look at all the significant pots I was in, how do I calculate my Expecation to see if I'm running above/below?


2 Pots of $1K each

Pot 1 (effective stacks $500): I get it in w/ 50% equity and win the pot
Pot 2 (effective stacks $500): I get it in w/ 80% equity and lose the pot

Actual Results: $0 (won $500/lost $500)

Pot 1 Expectation: $500 * 50% = $250
Pot 2 Expectation: $500 * 80% = $400
Total Expecation: $650

Actual Results - Total Expecation = ($650)

Did I do this correctly? Am I running $650 below expecation? Do you only include your stack or do the math on the whole pot?


  • Pot 1 Expectation is 50% of $1000= $500---Result--$1000

    Pot 2 Expectation is 80% of $1000= $800 --Result--$0

    Total Expectation $1300

    Actual Results $1000

    You are running at $300 below expectation

    In your example you are only calculating the expectation off of your stack not the pot, which is incorrect. Also, you came up with the funky TE number because your results are not $0 for both pots it is $500 ($500+$0). So in this case you would be at -$150 ($500-$650)
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