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AA facing flop decision. 2-5 Bellagio

LV_OMCLV_OMC Posts: 55Subscriber
2-5 NL 500 max buyin.
Hero old white guy probably seen as tight but aggressive and not that nice of a person. Villain middle aged white guy fairly new to the table and has not played too much. One other player with a deep stack is in until the flop bet. Main Villian 485 hero covers.

5 limps to villian in sb who completes. Hero in bb raises to 40 with 2 red A’s. Second limper calls and villain calls.

Pot 130

Flop Kc. 2s. 9s.

Villian checks. With 2 opponents and a spade draw on the flop hero chooses to lead with 80. First limper folds and Villian check raises to 170, leaving 275 behind. Hero’s next move?

Comments

  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,258Member
    I would choose a larger pre sizing, live players love to limp call so you have to maximize with your value range.
    AP
    I don’t see many over limp the small with 99 in my games so this spot is mostly villain/range dependent, we’re behind K9s and 22 and ahead slightly of most draws unless based on your reads he can have 99
    Calling flop as population standard and calling all in on most turns, avoiding the flush cards obviously.
  • LatvianMissileLatvianMissile Posts: 326Subscriber
    I would call. This is pretty much a minraise which could mean a Kx hand. Evaluate the turn. If it goes x/x you're ahead, but you're going to have to call off anyway.

    You beat any flush draws that decide to minraise and hands like K8. V is going to have almost every Kx since he completed small blind and was last to act after the raise so he will be wider.

  • LV_OMCLV_OMC Posts: 55Subscriber
    @Letmewin1 and @Latvianmissile thanks for the replies.

    You both suggested that I call and call off, which I see it would be hard not to call off with so little left. But if I'm only ahead of draws and I'm going to put the chips in anyway why would it not be better to just go ahead and reraise allin on the flop instead of giving him the chance for a free card when I am ahead? I understand calling and reevaluating when the stacks are deeper.
  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,258Member
    LV_OMC wrote: »
    @Letmewin1 and @Latvianmissile thanks for the replies.

    You both suggested that I call and call off, which I see it would be hard not to call off with so little left. But if I'm only ahead of draws and I'm going to put the chips in anyway why would it not be better to just go ahead and reraise allin on the flop instead of giving him the chance for a free card when I am ahead? I understand calling and reevaluating when the stacks are deeper.

    If you think he’d call off with all of his Kx and his draws then this is also an option.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,252Subscriber
    Bart has a theory that once a guy puts in a raise postflop he's never folding, but I can see in this spot some guys hero folding a K, cuz your 3! will look so strong. Which is why there is some merit to just calling his raise and sticking it in on safe turns. You may get more sigh calls then. (I'm not saying this logic makes much sense, but we do see it play out this way sometimes.)
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,622Subscriber
    Raise $55 preflop. That makes the hand auto-play post flop.

    As played....

    Call, then call off any turn without a spade. He could have a 2x draw or pair + draw
    If his range is - 99,22,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs.......

    You are getting odds to call with your 30% equity vs this range with the kinda min-raise.

    If you add my 10% spazz factor your equity is ~39%

    OTT it's an easy stack off as you have over 37 or 40% (with spazz) of equity assuming no spade.

    If there is a spade your equity falls off the chart if he shoves.

    Also remember you are as unknown to him as he is to you. So what I do in these spots is average him out in the mix of typical middle aged white guys that come to this casino. In my area I don't have crazy middle aged white guys.
  • QueensRookQueensRook Posts: 22Subscriber
    Call. Get it in on the turn on non-spades and non-kings, by calling off or shoving if checked to. I agree with Fuzzy on his likely range.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,622Subscriber
    Yes King would be bad. I forgot to mention that.
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