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Low stakes river condition

FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,615Subscriber
FR game. V in the hand isn't an extreme end player, possibly knows what he is doing but I am unsure as of yet as there are only 30 hands on him.

Unknown player raises UTG, I flat TT from MP, BUT (Villain) calls, BB calls.
FLOP 12bbs 743r - X, X, I bet 8bbs, V calls, rest fold.
TURN 30bbs Q (FD now) - I bet 17bbs, BUT calls
RIVER 64bbs A (FD completes) - what is our play here vs a relatively unknown.

This is not about being scared he has a Q or an A which I am not. This is an incredibly polarized situation where more than not he is never calling a bet for value and if I bet and I am called I am losing. But now also add the chance that he bluffs if checked to.

So I beat most of his range.
But none are calling.
He has a tiny value range which would.
Perhaps an equally tiny range that is beating me that folds like JJ.
And the chance that he would bluff in this spot when checked to which is my 10% spazz factor.

I chose to bet 1/2p for these reasons basically turning my hand into a bluff
#1 to prevent from being bluffed
#2 to make fold that tiny part of his range that actually beats me like JJ or the last TT or even a flopped 2 pair terrified I flopped the nuts.
#3 he is unknown. Could be good, could be bad.

Comments

  • SFGiantsSFGiants Posts: 565Subscriber
    edited November 2020
    You probably have derived as much value by the river. I think the standard is to check and evaluate his bet size. I don't understand why you don't want to induce a bluff. I could definitely see 55/66/88/99/7x in his range, but he can also have some Qx flop floats, which don't seem like they would fold to a bet even when the river comes an A.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,615Subscriber
    The thing is this board is so ripe for bluffing on his end. But I guess you are right and I just have to stick to my guns and say that I call a reasonable bet even if is larger than 1/2p because nothing would make for him to bet and the hands that beat me that would fold are basically 1 hand.
  • LatvianMissileLatvianMissile Posts: 318Subscriber
    Against a UTG raise, TT needs to be 3! from MP.

    Turn can be checked, but I think betting is better and I'd like a little bit bigger bet sizing like 20-24BBs since you aren't going to have many bluffs here.

    On the river it's a check-evaluate, but likely fold. What is V even bluffing here? He's going to fold all 7x and low pps to a bet and check all 7x hands and low pairs. You have too much SDV to bluff this.

    Flop distribution is also important in this hand. If the 7 is same suit as the 3-flush than V can't have a hand like 87s or 76s on the river and 54s is probably his only possible FD.

    Also there can't be a situation where if you call a V bet you lose, but he also has bluffs. Either you don't lose every time or V doesn't have bluffs.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,615Subscriber
    Looking at this a 3rd time I am going back to my original decision after some more math work.

    In this game UTG raises are like 3% of hands typically. So I assign an unknown this range until I see otherwise.

    River I decided to bet 3/5pot to target a hand like JJ or Qx float to fold which would be a very typical call here from Villain.

    Checking there is no +EV situation unless he bluffs reasonably. Since 95% of players just don't bluff at this game I thought the chance of him bluffing was less than the chance of him having a hand that beats me at showdown.

    JJ and some floated Qx hand were the target fold candidates. While probably he has ~32 combos of weaker hands he has I'd say 8 combos of JJ/Qx hands here. So to me will he bluff 20% of the time? No. But I will lose 20% of the time.

    So I thought betting was a less -EV play than checking. I could be totally off there.
  • Steveo76Steveo76 Posts: 218Subscriber

    What Qx flop floats can he have @Garland? I don't think this is likely at all. Calling a 2/3 pot bet with the BB's hand still undefined?

    I presume we bet the turn because there's no reason to think the Q helped him, right?

    Anyway, when he calls again on the turn I'm thinking either he out-flopped you or he's got a smaller pair +draw kind of hand. He's ditching the middling pocket pairs here IMO, maybe even upto JJ.

    On the river, unless he somehow called the flop with AQs (with backdoor flush) I don't see the Ace improving him to two pair.

    So I'm checking and hoping to be good at showdown. I can't find many better hands that you can hope to bluff out.

    As for Villain's bluffing frequency, it would be good to know the stakes. Is an Unknown capable of turning a weaker made hand into a bluff at this level? It is hard for me to find his bluffs here anyway.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,615Subscriber
    At these stakes players call raises with AK, TT-QQ. It's $25NL online FR.

    I'd have to range it but I came to the conclusion if I was vs me this might be a XC and induce a bluff from a larger range than a possible value one.

    But vs a bad player who has JJ in his hand or some goofy 2 pair hand that is scared to raise because a straight and flush is out there I prefer betting to force that range to fold.

    Normally I play 1/2 or 2/5 live and avoid online. But no live for almost a year due to SARS2. Been working on my company and playing far less poker. I might put in 1000 hands a month online. I prefer live. Also had no bankroll online so I literally started from $0 and 4000 reward points. Now I got almost $1000. When I hit $2000 I move up.

    No pro here. I found developing computer games is a better use of my time and a lot less variance :smile: which makes poker fun and not stressful.
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